While US wargames on the Korean Peninsula tend to get a lot of publicity, and the fact that there aren’t going to be any new US wargames there until at least March was treated as a huge positive, the US is far from backing off their aggressive military footing.
Rather, reports indicate that military operations have largely moved to the US mainland, with drills across multiple military bases preparing troops for the rapid mobilization efforts and combat troop deployments that would be needed for a new Korean War.
Fort Bragg saw a collection of US helicopters simulating moving troops through live artillery fire, while a separate exercise in Nevada simulated an outright military invasion under cover of night. Several more such operations are planned, with an eye toward getting troops to set up mobilization centers for a large-scale a precipitous overseas deployment.
On top of all of this, US special forces are planning to start a buildup in South Korea roughly coinciding with the start of the Winter Olympics, giving a further sense of urgency surrounding recent reports that the Trump Administration may be planning a sneak attack sometime around the Olympic games.
Only people on drugs or certifiably non-compus-mentae would seriously contemplate invading that place… Think of it as a sanity test…
The only assumption that makes sense for this training is that North Korea invades South Korea. For such an invasion to have any chance of a very speedy success North Korea must assemble a huge force of personnel and material near the border. A preparation similar to Hitler’s for the “Battle of the Bulge” offensive.
That must be done during a rainy season to prevent immediate detection by satellites hence exposure to almost complete destruction prior to action. Even then chances are that the preparations will be detected well before the date set for a NK “blitzkrieg”. Ours will not be the only government warning Kim. The governments of China and Russia will join ours.
Ergo North Korea will not invade South Korea.
Why on earth pretend that North Korea has any of the stupidity the USA has shown for decades?
You have a valid point, Dieter; the only assumption that makes any sense at all for this training is that the DPRK invades the ROK. As you said, for such an invasion to have any chance of a very speedy success N. Korea must assemble a huge force of personnel and material near the border .. a preparation similar to Hitler’s “Battle of the Bulge” offensive.
This must be done in the rainy season to prevent immediate detection by satellites, hence, exposure to almost complete destruction prior to action. Even then, chances are that these preparations will be detected before the date set for a DPRK “blitzkrieg”. Ours won’t be the only gov’t warning Kim; the gov’ts of China and Russia will join ours.
Therefore, the DPRK won’t invade the ROK.
What a pity Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, etc do not make enough money and must be helped by the “defense” industry even more.
Beyond Trump being stupid for starting a war with NK (and he may well be that stupid), it’s unlikely he will attack before the Winter Olympics. First, it’s winter in North Korea and no one wants to fight a war in the NK winter. The US had its fill of that in the first Korean War.
Second, it would be really dumb to attack before or during the Winter Olympics because of the negative PR that would entail.
I expect the US to attack in the spring when weather conditions permit. The only question remaining is whether it will be a “bloody nose” attack or a full-scale invasion. Either way the result will be all-out war because NK will retaliate and Trump will have to escalate.
Keep in mind that the bulk of the dying will be done by South Korea’s military since the US has at most one division and a couple light brigades to send over there (in addition, of course, to the carrier battle groups and regional air power.) So it won’t be a case of 250-500,000 US troops being there.
The war’s outcome will hinge entirely on how the SK military performs under the worst conditions in NK that can confront an invading force: bad terrain and a foe that has been planning for the war for sixty-four years and is as dug in as it’s possible to be.
And that’s if China doesn’t enter the war which they’ve already said they would.
North Korea’s government is insane and paranoid and there is no telling what it might do.
That is what the US must deal with – a crazed, inhuman regime condemned over and over by the world.
The belief that North Korea would launch an attack only if attacked first is a fantasy by certain Americans that has nothing to support it.