North and South Korea may soon declare an end to their protracted war, according to reports detailing ongoing discussions. The two nations have been in a state of war since 1950, with the Korean War having never formally gotten beyond an armistice.
An end to the conflict would be historic, because the Korean War isn’t just an on-paper remnant of a conflict generations ago. This conflict has threatened to reemerge several times in recent years. The presence of over 30,000 US troops on the border has meant America is always a step away from a huge, devastating conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Such a conflict could lead to world-wide nuclear devastation.
The White House appears to be on board, too, with President Trump confirming that South Korea has his blessing to end the war. This is not only under discussion, but South Korean media reports suggest a step in that direction may be something to announce during the summit between Kim Jong-un and President Moon Jae-in. A bigger announcement would be hard to imagine, and would ensure the historic summit goes down as a success.
The White House officials added, amid confirmation of their support for peace, that they’ve been holding very high level direct talks with North Korea. They did not elaborate, but reports have CIA Director and Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo having made a secret trip to North Korea to meet Kim.
This serious prospect of peace is a testament to how much diplomatic progress has been made so far in 2018, with North Korea having gone from a pariah nation to pursuing a number of important diplomatic avenues. In addition to the Kim-Moon summit, they also have a Kim-Trump summit planned for May or early June.
Substantial progress has been made on other avenues as well. The US is reportedly considering opening an embassy in North Korea. On Friday, the hotline between North and South Korea is scheduled to be turned back on.
North Korea has broached the subject of ending the war for years, but never before was it given any credence. Now, it seems not only credible, but a next logical step in the diplomatic process.
In addition to being another huge step forward, peace in Korea would presumably end the demilitarized zone, meaning that the zone would go back to the two respective nations, with the boundary at the truce village.
Peace is a high priority in both North and South Korea, as the resumption of the war in earnest would destroy much of both nations. The two sides have been steadily increasingly their armament throughout the conflict, and are armed to the teeth.
Another key goal for North Korea would be the end of US threats to attack them. Though the US threats have reduced markedly in recent months, peace presumably would all but end talk of a unilateral US strike, and could set the stage for a deal withdrawing US troops from the area.
That would presumably be done in return for the primary US goal, North Korea abandoning its nuclear weapons program. North Korea’s rapidly advancing program, with missiles that could conceivably reach US soil, raised serious concerns.
North Korea has always said the only reason they need nukes is to deter a US first strike. Peace greatly reduces that risk already, and makes a deal very achievable. This would be a real peace dividend.
Clearly, finalizing a peace treaty would take some time, after 68 years of war. There is so much to be gained, however, that it seems set to be a major focus of bilateral diplomacy going forward.
What sort of contortions will the Washington war mongers go through to prevent peace from breaking out? I hope they can work out a reunification.
They might start claiming NK is launching terrible cyber attacks, and demand the CIA starts arming terrorists in NK to defend freedom and democracy, and then when NK fights the terrorists, they can accuse Kim of personally ordering warcrimes and bombing “his own people”
Don’t trust US promises. Make sure they are somehow enforceable. Remember “NATO will not move one inch eastward”?
Trump gives blessings now? Isn’t that taking cult of personality a bit far even for him?
Not at all. Previous presidents, Bush and Clinton, have make it clear to South Korea they don’t want them to make peace. Trump is changing the policy direction.
If Trump does pull of a real Korean peace deal, it would certainly be a miracle.
The geopolitical pressures do favour a real peace deal, though. If China moves against Taiwan, as is often fretted over, the last thing the U.S. needs is its disadvantaged military position in South Korea being exploited.
If America and China faced a general non nuclear conflict, America would have great difficulty in preventing an overrun of every one of its mainland Asian allies. Its definitely a contingency worth avoiding.
China had trouble overrunning Vietnam in 1979; staying was an even bigger problem, so they declared victory and quit. Asian countries are notoriously difficult to subdue, especially against other Asians.
In theory, the U.S. should want China to alienate its neighbors in a conflict, perhaps enter their own Vietnam quagmire as they almost did… in Vietnam.
The Chinese would have to choose targets carefully, and the only Asian mainland nation with U.S. troops is South Korea, with North Korea conveniently something like a Chinese ally.
After this, maybe Trump can give some encouragement to India and Pakistan to sign a treaty. Their border is an even riskier faultline than North/South Korea.
Maybe Putin or Xi can deal with that one.
But Trump says he is the no.1 deal maker!
Apart from the nuclear winter problem, not really as far as U.S. deals go.
Pakistan is falling into Chinese orbit, and the U.S. is cultivating India as a balance against China in South Asia, while slowly weaning it away from India’s Cold War I Russian ties. India is the more promising long-term economy and already in close Western orbit as part of the British Commonwealth.
Pakistani-Indian tensions are ‘good’ for the U.S., up to a point.
Good! Now when Trump goes there next month, he can give his blessing to their new accord, go home to the cheers of an adoring US citizenry, and be ready to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. Problem solved!
Oh, those 30 thousand US troops will come in handy when we go to war with the Russians. Good luck with that one, guys.
Hi Thomas:
It is hard for me to believe, the US would ever agree to withdrawaling troops from South Korea… The US position on the situation with regard to the two Koreas has more to do with China than anything else… We will see the second coming first. ( And even if the US did withdrawal from SK, they would build up somewhere else close by.) I think Trump will insist on his way or the highway. Time will tell… best-dv
Or Iran. Or both.
I still feel Washington is going to put the kibosch on this peace thing. Though America would definitely benefit from ending the Korean War, bringing the troops home, and reducing, then eliminating tensions with North Korea, the political-military-security complex would lose mightily.
If it really happened, there would be massive layoffs in the military-industrial complex, budgets would have to be slashed, and soldiers discharged. They simply cannot allow peace to happen. They will fiercely resist any serious moves in that direction.
They could compensate for peace in the Korea’s by increasing tension elsewhere to keep the money flowing into their pockets.
The USA PTB must be furious-how can anyone dare use the word peace or even consider any reduction in hostilities? Look how well we have persuaded two or our vassals to bomb a country with the pretence we care about a “red line” we set up because only chemical weapons are worth mentioning, and we always find someone (not us) who uses them eg recently the Russians used them to kill two guinea pigs and a cat. Diplomacy must be avoided at all costs-we know nothing about it anyway and have never tried it.
This is unvarnished good news. I seriously think deep down some of you guys want any and all peace measures to fail just so you can say “I was right about Trump! He has done nothing good!”
Faith, at this point is not much to go on. The proof will be in definitive results, not based on good wishes.
We’ve been lied to and deceived too many times and not just by Trump… best-dv
It’s impossible to block out all the other conflicts we have going on. All those conflicts don’t seem to have an end in sight. Korea in itself has been great news but, sadly, if we don’t end the other conflicts, it won’t matter much.
I seriously think deep down some trump apologists don’t think very deep down.
Its tough because so many elite players hate Trump on principle and have the propaganda machine stoking it. Trump hate has even displaced the progressive background buzz of Republican hate.
This means the Democrats get a free ride on pretending to be the alternative; Trump hate is not a real antiwar platform and they need it that way.
Add that Trump’s other wars are continuing at least as badly as his Presidential predecessors, who royally deserved slagging for their warmongering.
Add that glimmers of hope like a Syria pullout are teased then dashed and teased again by political realities, and its easy to fall past normal antiwar criticism into ‘deranged Trump syndrome’.
And, its a tougher, nastier world with more informed and angry people who understand perfectly well drastic change for the better, albeit with differing definitions of ‘better’, was needed yesterday.
Careful. US warmongers, neocons, CIA, will all try to find a way to spike this drift to peace.
If US troops leave, who will be around to support the alcohol, drug, prostitution, and golfing industries in S. Korea??
The Koreans may very well make an accord with each other, however the US weapons industry has no desire to denuke the north, it wouldn’t be good for buisness. The only way, is for SK to say, “Get out, and stay out”..