Exact death tolls in the past week of fighting in Afrin are all but impossible to come by, but it’s always fair to say at any given time that both Turkey and the Kurdish YPG believe they’ve killed more than they’ve lost, and that civilian deaths keep rising.
Turkey issued a statement Friday claiming three of their soldiers have been killed, along with 11 of their allies in the Free Syrian Army (FSA). The YPG claimed to have killed over 300 of the two groups’ fighters in the aggregate, while the Syrian Observatory estimated it in excess of 60.
Likewise, Turkey claimed to have killed 343 Kurds so far, while the Kurds of denied this, and claim only 43 lost. The civilian death toll is believed to be 38 at present, with virtually all killed by Turkish forces, and two killed in neighboring Azaz by Kurdish artillery fire.
All of this fighting has displaced many thousands of civilians, and could displace far, far more if the military advance and artillery fire wasn’t heavily limiting mobility and the opportunities to get out of harm’s way.
Looks win-win for the U.S.D.S..
First, no matter who prevails the Syrian-Turk border is Golanized. Interestingly Afrin Kurds have started protesting FOR the Syrian government to protect them – after preventing the return of Syrian troops into Afrin so they could do just that by there mere presence.
The second, is if the Kurds repulse the Turks, or hold out for a long period of time demonstrating they can defend themselves without the Syrian Army, they validate independence.
The Wiki Syrian Civil War map doesn’t seem to indicate much progress for Turkey. Almasdarnews. com reports there’s some hilltop swapping and Turkey lost another tank to TOW sniping.
“Kurdish forces retake strategic mountaintop [Jabal Barsaya] in northeast Afrin” – Leith Aboutfadel, Jan. 27, 2018 Almasdarnews. com
The Turkish plan appears to be to link up Operation ‘Branch and ‘Shield along the Syrian border, performing a pincer on Kurdish positions in between. Sticking to the border avoids the cauldroning a deep penetration into Afrin would invite.
“mobilization is costly” but the Turks have not mobilized. They are using some very modest standing forces in support of proxy militias that themselves would be raised in much the same way regardless.
The tanks “sniped” are ancient, half-century-old M-60 tanks used as infantry support for mere proxy forces.
This could easily get out of hand and cost Erdogan a lot, but it has not yet done so.
Mobilization refers to the gathering and deployment of military forces and none of it comes for free. Militiamen are no different than PMCs; they expect to be paid well and given tacit freedom to loot.
When Russia mobilized its air campaign the claim was made that the expense was covered by its training budget. That means, however, money isn’t being spent where its was normally spent and most modern armies pay a bonus for combat service.
Some 160 Turkish M60s were upgraded to the Israeli ‘Sabra’ variant. The M60T is far from obsolete.
The main point is, however, the north Syrian border appears headed for Golanization, not re-integration and the Kurds emboldened towards independence, both in Syria and Turkey, all the better to use them as proxies remake the map of the Middle East.
Of all the countries Kurds are in . Independence from Syria is the least desirable . Kurds like Syria and Assad loves his Kurds .It is Turkey Kurds would like to separate from .
Kurds in Syria may face less persecution but the ever-present fear of Kurdish separatism and Arab nationalism taints relations. This has been reflected in things like denying Kurds (and other non-Arabs) of their citizenship rights including rights to own land and pursue a Kurdish identity via education and cultural activities.
Its a MacKinderan-Spykman geopolitical imperative to keep this particular segment of the rimland arc of instability hot. Syria just has fewer Kurds and less geostrategically important land. Turkey is a far different story, and to a Turkish nationalist, Syrian Kurds are a real geopolitical problem; autonomy is synonymous with separatism. Abdullah Ocalan’s solution was the only real one, but few Kurds let alone Arabs understand Rojava.
The U.S. and Turkey were destined by Sykes-Picot to shadow war over Kurdish destiny. Col. Ralph Peters infamous map of a remade Middle East had a Kurdistan plunked in the middle composed of half of Turkey.
“Plans for Redrawing the Middle East: The Project for a “New Middle East”” – Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya, Nov. 18 2006, GlobalResearch. ca
There are lots of ME maps showing the distribution of the Kurds. A third to half of Turkey is mixed Kurdish.
“Here’s The New Kurdish Country That Could Emerge Out Of The Iraq Crisis” – Jeremy Bender, Jun. 19, 2014, Businessinsider. com
Most critically, Kurdish Turkey territory just happens to encompass the headwaters of both the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Turkey’s lock on ME water and hydrological future of the former Fertile Crescent has been understood for decades, especially by the U.S.. The key to unlocking that lies with the Kurds.
“The World; Where Kurds Seek a Land, Turks Want the Water” – Stephen Kinzer, Feb. 28, 1999, NYtimes. com