A lot of publicity is coming today after a call by Syrian opposition groups in exile called for rebels to join forces into a “national army,” and have had upwards of a dozen factions, most notably the Islamist Ahrar al-Sham group, accepting the call.
This is the latest in years of calls for unity among the Syrian rebel factions, or at least limits to infighting. In practice. The factions endorsing this latest push are almost exclusively Turkey-backed rebel groups who have already been acting as an effectively unified faction.
This should be unsurprising, as the opposition factions making the call are both operating out of Turkey in the first place, and those familiar with the initiative describe it as being pushed heavily by Turkey, so it would make sense their proxies are on board.
Beyond them, however, it’s not clear how many other rebel groups are going to accept such an offer, as the other rebel groups in the north, where Turkey’s allies are, are almost exclusively overt rivals of theirs, and the limited rebel factions in the south who aren’t already part of major umbrella groups would be of fairly limited value to this “national army.”
Are we still being fed the garbage of Syrian “rebels”??
That’s all they have to do is call John McCain and game on.
More garbage news. The pointless and powerless exiles that reside in Turkey are just as influential as those talking heads Hillary set up way back in Saudi Arabia. There is a line of wishfull thinking floating around that Turkey is free lancing, not really working with Russia and Iran to bring peace to Syria. It is however just that, wishfull thinking. Before Russian intervention, Turkey had operated under assumption that US/Saudi plan for Syria being overrun by Sunni extremist was going to suceed. That would have cut Turkey off from Iraq and Middle East and from its ally Qatar, including plans for massive gas pipeline plans from joint Iranian/Qatari tields. Saudi control over Syria would have meant the end of Qatar plans for energy sale to Europe.
In Turkey, several power players were pushing Turkey to join anti-Assad coalition, notably pro-NATO Republican Party, Gulen networks and mainstream media, as well as Soros liberal groups, Kurds and liberal media. Turkey however opted for its own version of “Assad must go” policy, focusing narrowly on its border region as well as connection to Iraq. Let us not forget that Turkey still has base in Iraq and Qatar, and from day one understood that Kurds would be the means of creating barriers between Turkey and Middle Easr, as well as diminishing the size and geographic importance of Syria, isolating Lebanon from Syria, Iraq or Iran, and making it possible for Israel to take a third shot at Lebanon. This is why Turkey could not do more then it did. Saudi Arabia, being favored, could not have become partner of Turkey, especially as Saudi Arabia tried to strangulate Qatar and control its resources, indirectly controling Iran.
Readers never noticed that “rebels” varied in what they did. As Syrian Army had to withdraw from border areas — Turkey and Qatar supported groups that tried to keep Saudi sponsored ISIS and Kurdish attempts to link up Afrin to Kobani Kurds. US recruited from the same pool in Alrppo and Idlib, but counted mostly on well organized Al_Nusra to afflict the damage on central and coastal Syria. Many moons ago — after Russian intervention and following the attempt of pro-American forces in Turkey to assasinate Erdogan and take over the government, things drastically changed. With all pro-NATO and pro-American elements in Turkey losing the internal strife, the change in Syria policy was swift.
All the “rebels” became absorbed by Turkish army as soon as Turkey acted to stop
Kurds from controling border. Afrin Kurds had tried to link up with American supported forces, but Turkey and “rebels” kicked ISIS from Jarabulus on the border, and proceeded to Al-Bab. Hope people remember it for its importance. Kurds wanted to take Al_Bab, but had no manpower to do it — although propaganda was already prepared here in US lionizing Kurds. It turned out Turkey had to fight well supported ISIS, and well informed ISIS. Turkish forces suffered heavy losses, and in the end, Russian airforce joined Turkish forces to expell ISIS from Al -Bab. But the operation would not have been successful if Sytian Army did not block ISIS from moving to the south or west. The happy speculation was rampant in our media how finally Turkish supported rebels were to fight Syrian Army as they literally linked at Al-Bab. It is clear that Turkish forces ever since July 2016 work in coordination with Syrian, Russian, and Iranian forces. Strategic ambiguity is maintained between Damascus and Ankara for two reasons — one is Kurds, and another Idlib. Turkey must keep the Kurds from linking up, while Syria must not approve of Turkey’s military operations inside its territory against Kurds — the citizens of Syria. In Idlib, Turkey needs to keep some credibility among rebels, while Damascus knows it has no influence over them. In reality, if US wanted to eliminate ISIS and establish security over that majority Sunni are across Euphrates — Turkey would have been ideal partner. Because Turkey would have been accepted as a peacekeeping force — as Kurds cannot be. But Turkey was initial tathet of regime change, and to accept a victorious survivor, Erdogan, as a partner, is unthinkable. Kurds have unhappy history in Syria — as the enablers of conquerors and colonizers. Especially under the French rule over Syria. Also, Kurds are minority. There is not one single governorate in Syria where Kurds are the majority. Only in some districts they are majority. Having them become “liberators” and “peacekeepers” in vast area across Euphrates? This is why US plan to hang around this vast area has no reality to it. It will be tested as Syrian Army, now secure on Lebanese border, takes different routes to Iraqi border.
So, we need to be spared joyfull news that Turkey is free lancing here. If anything, it may be a beginning of strenghtening Ahrar al Sham — a large group, but resolutely beaten by Al-Qaeda in Idlib. If anyone thinks that the West has shed tears over A-Qaeda loss if Aleppo in vain — think again. How come that Al-Qaeda — under its third name– has all the resouces to trounce the larger groups, such as Ahrar al Sham in Idlib? The aim is clear — diminish all groups that are collaborating with Astana process, so that at the end of the day, Al-Qaeda and its Western sponsors would call all the shots in negotiating peace agreement with Damascus. The group that would demand that Assad goes, etc.
But Turkey must do something to prepare Idlib for the next stage — creating another deconflict zone. As with other deconflict zones, those that sign up get government aid, have right to form their police force and lical government — and accepting that Al-Qaeda and ISIS are not part of any agreement. The goal here is to insure that fighters of Al-Qaeda think hard before staying with the group and its other murderous affiliates.
Fighters will have to mske decisions for themselves and their families as to the future they are facing.
With group that is supported by Turkey (and under a face saving new name) they can get out of insecurity of fighting with ISIS and Turkish supported Free Syrian Army. Recently, a technical meeting between Russia Turkey and Iran was held ahead of Astana meeting. Idlib had to be high on their list. They will not hold another Astana merting until new facts on the ground are established, and until there is a game plan for Idlib. At least a framework.
It is far from clear how the region on Iraqi border will be handled. US expectstions of Kurds cannot be realized. US can under neocon firm grip chose to languish in the region. ISIS will be defeated — not because anything US or aKurds do, but because their support is diminishing. While it is popular fiction that the new Saudi crown prince and de facto head of state is a bad boy, who single handedly started all that is bad in Saudi Arabia. But a less romantic story is that the Kingdom decided to shed the rule of Al-Najaf, a good friend of CIA for decades. And that such unprecedented move came about as the Kingdom faces multiple disasters, all caused by following US anti-Iran line and the messes that it lead to. Saudi policy is about to drastically change. Avenues for ending war in Yemen are explored, getting out of Syria and Iraq mess as well.
Quietly, Qatar issue has been operating on reduced decibels, and the relationship with Ehypt switchrd from the one of Saudi superiority, to valuing Egypt’s mediating role.
There is a great deal of theatrical, almost Nethanuesqe, behavior coming out of Syria. At this point, there is no ISIS in Raqqa, but the populagion is resisting Kurdish takeover. Bombing them will not make them love us or accept Kurds as liberators. The silly roadblock at Al-Tanf that is protecting ISIS from being crushed between Idaqi and Syrian forces. Attacking unarmed ISIS and families in buses, another brilliant move. Iraqi president ordered to show up stage left to help US get out of the pickle by decrying sending the busses of unarmed ISIS close to their borders. We are to forget ARMED ISIS convoys traversing deserts, moving to attack government forces — that is OK. Russia targeting ARMED convoys was considered bad. And on it goes. Can we hope for some “you are fired” lines snytime soon.