With Russian peacekeepers deploying to Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow is holding talks with Armenia and Azerbaijan over the structure of the ceasefire and the UN’s role. Russian President Vladimir Putin brokered a deal signed on Tuesday that brought the fighting over the ethnic Armenian enclave to an end.
Armenia agreed to cede territory to Azerbaijan and withdraw its military from areas to the west of Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian peacekeepers have already arrived in the area, a total of 2,000 will be deployed to the region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the role of the UN will be to settle people who were driven from their homes by the conflict. Earlier this month, a humanitarian official from the UN said 90,000 ethnic Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh and are now in Armenia, a significant number since the enclave’s estimated population about 150,000.
Some ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh are unsure if they will be able to stay in the enclave when Azerbaijan takes control. Azerbaijanis were forced to flee areas in and around Nagorno-Karabakh during the war in the early 1990s that left tens of thousands dead. Some Azerbaijanis hope to return to their former homes.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pshiyan is facing backlash for agreeing to give up territory to Azerbaijan. Protesters have marched through the streets of Yerevan and into government buildings demanding his resignation.
Turkey supported Azerbaijan throughout the conflict and warned Armenia against violating the ceasefire on Thursday. “If they [Armenia] violate the ceasefire, then they will pay the price for it,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.
On Friday, Putin said the death toll from the latest round of fighting, which started on September 27th, is over 4,000. The Russian president said 8,000 had been wounded, and tens of thousands were displaced. So far, Azerbaijan has not disclosed its military casualties. Nagorno-Karabakh’s military reported 1,302 of its soldiers killed.
Russia of course is obligated under mutual defense provisions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to defend Armenia. But why expect Putin to do anything other than what he has done over the past twenty years – withdrawing Russian military contingents from Vietnam, Cuba, Kosovo, Tajikistan, Adjara, etc. and betraying the small handful of allies it had left when he took power; Yugoslavia, Iraq, Adjara, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, Ivory Coast, Armenia, etc.? Would be interesting to determine if the anti-aircraft missile that recently shot down a Russian helicopter and killed its pilots was provided to Azerbaijan by Putin, who has collaborated with his allies (masters?) Israel and Turkey in arming the Azerbaijani military into the major one in the Caucasus.
Russia of course is obligated under mutual defense provisions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to defend Armenia. But why expect Putin to do anything other than what he has done over the past twenty years – withdrawing Russian military contingents from Vietnam, Cuba, Kosovo, Tajikistan, Adjara, etc. and betraying the small handful of allies it had left when he took power: Yugoslavia, Iraq, Adjara, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, Ivory Coast, Armenia, etc.? Would be interesting to determine if the anti-aircraft missile that recently shot down a Russian helicopter and killed its pilots was provided to Azerbaijan by Putin, who has collaborated with his allies (masters?) Israel and Turkey in arming the Azerbaijani military into the major one in the Caucasus.
If a Russian advantage exists for including Turkey in a proposed crisis center in Azerbaijan, it would pivot around monitoring Ankara’s electronic communications with regional terrorists moving north into Georgia and Russia.
These are myths mostly propagated by Armenian supporters globally. Turkey has ZERO interest in supporting militancy anywhere in this region. Russia is helping Turkey monitor large section of Syrian border, where PKK was formerly transiting arms into Syria — to supply both the Islamist militants as well as their Syrian branch YPG. The process of reducing Idlib militancy must be credited to Turkey, as HTS territory is shrinking. One has to know a great deal more about these conflicts before advancing theories.
The article is rather ignorant. Nagorno Karabakh has not been taken over by Azerbaijan, except the town of Shushi. But keep in mind that majority of NK population lives in Stepanokert, and it is not possible that the population fled from the town that was not occupied — nor is now expected to be occupied by Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has taken back the territories that were majority Azeri population back in 1994, and the area was supposed to return to Azerbaijan under UN resolutions as well as Minsk proposed peace plan.
It is NOT Russian or CSTO obligation to defend Armenia — unless Armenia is attacked. The war over territories that belong to Azerbaijan, and from where Azeri population was expelled, is not CSTO obligation.
Russian forces will protect NK and the corridor that links the Armenian enclave with Armenia. At the same time, Armenia is opening corridor across its territory so Azerbaijan exclave can be connected to Azerbaijan.
What remains is to solve the permanent status of NK. And Russian-Turkish body to monitor the deal, will have to deal with the inevitable problems, misinterpretations, and delays in the process. Also, to insure that appropriate help is given to refugees, and their return, demining, and negotiations to reach final settlement.
It would be fair to give NK to Armenia, for exchange for the corridor connecting Azerbaijan exclave. What they all need is a permanent settlement, allowing for open borders, trade, infrastructure within region. Armenia needs is more then anyone else.
The speculations on terrorists, Israeli weapons and such — are just that speculations with no value. Azerbaijan did not need any help from foreign militants, and Turkish status within Azerbaijan is sufficient to insure no Israeli presence. The opening of Southern Corridor gas pipeline, will be linked to the future of Turk Stream, allowing Turkey to play vital role as energy transit hub. Region won. It may look like Armenian loss, but in reality they never could have hoped to hold onto 20% of Azerbaijan territory against UN resolutions and Minsk peace proposal. Armenia needs protection for NK until its final status is agreed upon, and region normalizes relationship.