On Monday, the UN’s human rights commissioner said artillery shelling on civilians during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could amount to war crimes. Since September 27th, Azerbaijan and Armenian forces have been battling over the disputed enclave, and both sides have been accused of attacking residential areas.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said indiscriminate attacks on populated areas is against international law. Bachelet said Armenia and Azerbaijan have ignored calls to stop the indiscriminate bombing.
“Instead, homes have been destroyed, streets reduced to rubble, and people forced to flee or seek safety in basements,” she said. “Such attacks must stop and those responsible for carrying them out, or ordering them, must be held to account.”
So far, three humanitarian ceasefires have been attempted to cool the fighting, but all have quickly failed. Last Friday, envoys from Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Geneva and agreed to refrain from deliberately targeting civilians. But hours after the pledge was made, both sides accused the other of shelling residential areas.
Bachelet said the fighting has displaced about 40,000 Azeris, and 90,000 ethnic Armenians had fled Nagorno-Karabakh and are currently in Armenia. These numbers are substantial, as the total population of Nagorno-Karabakh is only around 150,000.
Nagorno-Karabakh’s defense ministry said on Monday that 1,177 of its soldiers have been killed so far in the conflict. Dozens of civilians have been killed on both sides, and Azerbaijan has yet to disclose its military casualties. Russia has previously estimated that the death toll in the fighting is close to 5,000.
Baku has been making gains in the fighting and has called on Armenia to withdraw from all territories within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders. On Sunday, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said he is ready to “fight to the end.”
In an interview with The Jerusalem Post on Monday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan slammed Israel for supplying the Azeris with weapons and aligning with Turkey. The Azeris are using Israeli-made attack drones, and Amnesty International said they identified Israeli-made cluster bombs being used against residential areas in Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Pashinyan also attacked Turkey for sending mercenaries from northern Syria to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh in support of Azerbaijan. Both Ankara and Baku deny the charge, but reports from the media and statements from world leaders have said Turkey is sending Syrian fighters to the battlefield in the South Caucuses.
“identified Israeli-made cluster bombs being used against residential areas in Stepanakert”
– I don’t think Israeli made cluster bombs work unless they are around residential areas.
Sadly, analysis must avoid cheerleading — but this is not the case here. Opinions of world leaders — 100% Western usually— amount to propaganda, and can be safely excluded.
At issue here is the territory that has been taken from Azerbaijan, and unlike NK — is not contested. Armenia has been holding them since 1994 when war ended.
Armenia is getting a pass — as the whole area is being referred to as NK. Bombing and casualties are in both sides. Azerbaijan is targeting Stepanokert in order to paralyze Armenian military, so it cannot defend far flung occupied Azeri regions. Armenia needs to explain why Azeri town of Ganja is targeted, causing civilian casualties.
Beyond war noise – both sides have their own truth — and they must compromise. Armenia had no incentive — it took land surrounding NK, had unfettered access to NK, and sat on the gains since 1994.
Now,
The map is not accurate — as the areas to the south, along Iranian border have been retaken by Azerbaijan, and are threatening the narrowest connection between NK and Armenia.
Russia will not intervene unless Armenian territory is attacked. Since that will not happen — unless a false flag — Armenia needs to define its negotiating priorities. NK must have its status defined, as well as connection to Armenia.
But what kind of status — depends,
Russia protected Armenia for 30 years against Azerbaijan’s attempts to recover its 6 regions. Not any more. Having spurned Russia’s assistance since 2018, it is unlikely Russia will ignore Azerbaijan’s grievances.
But it is up to Armenia to decide in what terms will NK remain independent. As a region with autonomy within Azerbaijan, or as as entity under Armenia sovereignty.
The only way Azerbaijan will give it up if Armenia gives up corridor along Iranian border — so Azerbaijan exclave would reconnect to Azerbaijan proper.
Or else, Armenia may wait for Biden to “do something”. Risky. Azerbaijan is about 30 miles from the corridor connecting NK and Armenia.