US, Israel Reject French Proposal to End IDF Presence in Lebanon

Weeks after the February 18 deadline for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon has come and gone, IDF troops remain at the five hilltop surveillance posts they hastily constructed in southern Lebanon ahead of that deadline, and there are increasing signs that this is an indefinite occupation.

The ceasefire ending the Israeli invasion of Lebanon was reached in late November, and initially the deadline for withdrawal was January 26, though the US and Israel ultimately stretched that out to February 18. The US and France were meant to be the guarantors of the ceasefire and the Israeli pullout.

Enforcement of the ceasefire has been effectively non-existent, with the US only giving empty guarantees that Israel was on track to meet deadlines, while giving them a green light to stay. France, however, has been offering proposals that would end with Israel not occupying Lebanon at all.

French proposals have centered around bolstering the UNIFIL peacekeeper force and having them replace the IDF at the hilltop posts, or potentially even stationing French troops inside southern Lebanon at places that Israel would designate. Replacing an Israeli occupation with a French one is probably sub-optimal from Lebanon’s perspective, but it doesn’t have a very recent history of violent invasion and massive civilian casualties associated with it.

How palatable a French military presence would be to Lebanon apparently isn’t an issue at any rate, since Israel and the US both rejected these proposals out of hand. Sources are reported as saying any transfer of the Lebanese hilltops, even to the Lebanese military, would first need to be “negotiated.”

Israeli officials have argued vague “strategic reasons” why they need to just stay in southern Lebanon, though underlying this is a reality that they’re not planning to leave at any point. While UNIFIL is urging both sides to avoid “escalation” of tensions, an open-ended occupation could be a big driver of that. Lebanon’s President Aoun has termed Israel’s continued presence an occupation, though he so far doesn’t suggest doing anything about it beyond complaining to the international community.

Some in Lebanon’s parliament are responding differently. Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlullah is urging the Lebanese government to develop and show its ability to expel occupation forces and protect national sovereignty.

As a faction normally heavily opposing Israeli occupations, Hezbollah has been uncharacteristically quiet since the ceasefire. Fadlullah said that Hezbollah was “giving the state an opportunity to fulfill its duties” by not acting unilaterally against Israel. This is likely a continuation of repeated Hezbollah warnings that their patience with the situation is not open-ended, though so far they have not set of firm deadline on anybody else getting the Israelis out, or when they might renew open hostilities.

Tensions surrounding the Israeli presence in southern Lebanon are only compounded by continued Israeli military action against Lebanese civilians from across the border. Reports from Monday including Israeli troops opening fire on the border village of Kfar Kela, wounding one civilian, and an Israeli patrol capturing and ultimately releasing a farmer near al-Aabbassiyah, which is roughly 20 km from the Israeli border.

That Israeli troops even saw a random farmer near al-Aabbassiyah before deciding to capture him is likely a function of the hilltop surveillance posts being inside Lebanese territory, though even the nearest post is a substantial distance away. The IDF has yet to comment on either incident.