US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

The book says US intelligence reached the assessment in September 2022, around the time Biden said there was a risk of 'nuclear armageddon'

US intelligence determined in September 2022 that there was a 50% chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, a new book by journalist Bob Woodward alleges, The Associated Press reported Wednesday.

According to the book, titled “War,” the warning came in late September 2022, with US intelligence believing Russia could use a nuke if its forces were surrounded in Kherson City. Russia withdrew from the city not long after, in November 2022.

The book says the warning caused alarm within the Biden administration as it moved the chance of Russia using a nuclear weapon from 5% or 10% way up to 50%. Around the same time, President Biden said publicly that the risk of nuclear “armageddon” was higher than it had been at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

“I don’t think there is any such a thing as the ability to easily use a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden told donors at a fundraiser in New York City in October 2022. “We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis.”

Despite the huge risk of nuclear war, Biden did not alter course on US involvement in the proxy war, which has only escalated since then. The Woodward book says that the US issued several warnings and threats on the potential consequences of what could happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

Woodward says that Biden told National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to “get on the line with the Russians. Tell them what we will do in response.” In September 2022, Sullivan said publicly that Russia would suffer “catastrophic consequences” if it used a nuke and said the US conveyed that in private conversations. A few months later, The Wall Street Journal reported that Sullivan had been holding secret talks with Russian officials.

The Woodward book says that Biden also sent a message to Putin that there would be “catastrophic consequences” if a nuke was used, but there has been no known contact between Biden and the Russian leader since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022.

The book also says that when Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with then-Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu in October 2022, he warned, “Any use of nuclear weapons on any scale against anybody would be seen by the United States and the world as a world-changing event. There is no scale of nuclear weapons that we could overlook or that the world could overlook.”

The risk of the Ukraine proxy war turning nuclear is still very high as Putin has ordered changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine in direct response to threats of escalation from the West, specifically the idea of the US and NATO supporting long-range strikes inside Russian territory. The US appeared poised to sign off on the long-range strikes but seems to have backed down, at least for now.

Author: Dave DeCamp

Dave DeCamp is the news editor of Antiwar.com, follow him on Twitter @decampdave.