On Saturday, Ukrainian forces completed a withdrawal from Avdiivka, a key eastern Donetsk city that was central to Ukraine’s war effort since conflict broke out in the Donbas in 2014.
The withdrawal was the first big victory for Russia since Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sacked his top general, Valery Zaluzhny, and replaced him with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was previously the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces.
“Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines,” Syrskyi said in a statement.
The loss of Avdiivka could lead to more Russian gains if Russia can keep up the momentum, as the remaining Ukrainian-controlled areas of Donetsk are not as fortified. Ukrainian forces on the frontlines are also facing significant manpower and weapons shortages.
Morale is low within the Ukrainian military after the appointment of Syrskyi, who is known by Ukrainian soldiers as “the butcher,” a nickname he earned for overseeing the nine-month defense of Bakhmut. “Syrskyi will kill us all,” one Ukrainian soldier told POLITICO.
Despite the bleak situation for Ukrainian soldiers and the Russian momentum, the US is still looking to fuel the proxy war and rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest offer for negotiations. But Congress still has to authorize the $60 billion President Biden is seeking for the conflict.
Well the actions of the new CIC of Ukraine’s armed forces remind me of the story about DeGaulle, who awoke from a deep slumber to find that his army was marching out of town, whereupon he jumped to his feet and exclaimed “I must dash to the front, for I am their leader!”
Shame on Trump and Johnson. SHAME.
I wonder how the Ukrainian “dead enders” on this site will react to the news of Avdiivka falling? What a waste of human life. This could all be solved at the negotiating table. The longer Ukraine persists in trying to defeat Russia militarily the less territory they will have in the end.
Agreed, this war is an utter waste that is emphasized by the scuttling of peace negotiations where blame squarely rests on the Empire. It’s easy to wage a war with gullible proxies. I love the ever-evolving narrative of the 2023 “counteroffensive” to “active defense” to what is now a full retreat.
The eastern front is moving west and Russia will not stop.
What the Empire, and it’s subjugated lackeys, fail to understand is that Putin will keep pouring bodies into this conflict until it’s done. He has the resources to extend this far beyond what the West can stomach.
Also in the news, big oil report profits in excess of $281 billion since the start of this conflict.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/19/worlds-largest-oil-companies-have-made-281bn-profit-since-invasion-of-ukraine
Rest assured that Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon Technologies are smacking their chops as well.
“The Party said that Oceania had never been in alliance with Eurasia. He, Winston Smith, knew that Oceania had been in alliance with Eurasia as short a time as four years ago. But where did that knowledge exist? Only in his own consciousness, which in any case must soon be annihilated. And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed -if all records told the same tale — then the lie passed into history and became truth. ‘Who controls the past,’ ran the Party slogan, ‘controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.’ And yet the past, though of its nature alterable, never had been altered. Whatever was true now was true from everlasting to everlasting. It was quite simple. All that was needed was an unending series of victories over your own memory. ‘Reality control’, they called it: in Newspeak, ‘doublethink'”
14 years to take a city right on the border with the seperatist’s zone. You military geniuses believe you’ve won the war. (You were saying the same thing when Bakhmut was taken.) This loss was most likely due to the scumbag GOP in the HOR. The war is not lost when one battle is lost. But you all have your day; but I expect you to acknowledge when Ukraine makes advances.
There it is. We’re still waiting on Ukraine’s “thunder run to Crimea.” You claimed this based on twitter reports because you are a gullible simpleton. Now you want us to take your ramblings seriously? You are a joke and it is plain for everyone to see that you are so full of BS it’s coming out your ears.
You also relied on questionable open source intelligence outfits like oryx claiming a massively attrited Russian force was all that stood between Ukraine and Crimea (it looks like oryx closed up shop shortly after the counter offensive started). You relied on biased neocon sources like the ISW. You also probably rely on various telegram channels for your information.
You are a useful idiot for the elite to push their imperial agenda. I suggest you pull you head out of your ass and do some reading on the history and application of attrition warfare. Maybe you will learn something.
Who here claimed that after Bakhmut the war was won? I think that most people were claiming, correctly, that it was a propaganda win for Russia as well as being a large loss for Ukraine in terms of irreplaceable highly trained units (while Russia was throwing military contractors and prisoners at the Ukrainians).
Yes. Yes. Frank the military genious because he reads articles from the academics at the Quincy Institute. You certainly are a tankie POS, my friend. How many battles did Hitler win before losing the war? How many for Japan in the Pacific? How about the US in Vietnam? Afghanistan?
See your flawed, subjective view of this war? You can’t see the forest through the trees. But you keep trying, s**thead!
That’s all you got? Weak sauce. Once again, I suggest you acquaint yourself with the literature on attritional warfare strategies and their historical applications. Until then I will leave you with one of your greatest hits:
“Rational Thinker
6 months ago
Right now the Russians are attacking near Kupyansk with reserves while the Ukrainians are advancing in the south after their successful river crossing at Kozachi Laheri. The Ukes are setting up a Thunder Run to Crimea and the military genius in Moscow is his troops into a meat grinder up north. Yes. He’s “achieved his objective” of being a tactical idiot!”
Oh, boy. You really got me! How are things for the Russians around Krynky?
It doesn’t matter. Can the Ukrainians develop that position? It’s an attritional cauldron, but you are too drunk on the koolaid to notice.
Awww. But the Russians can’t dislodge them, can they. We’ll see how this attritional warfare goes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/09/yes-russia-really-is-sending-65-year-old-tanks-to-assault-ukrainian-positions/?sh=1aca1e3a04bd
You hope no one is paying attention, but we are. Much like in Robotyne the battle goes back and forth over the same little patch of ground with a few exceptions on the flanks. This is a sign that attrition is taking place. Notice the Russians don’t ever move in and occupy the few square blocks the Ukrainians keep sending troops into. They bombard it and force the Ukrainians to move back putting the area back into the gray zone. The Ukrainians rotate out and/or reinforce attrited units and the cycle continues. This inability to develop the position is another sign that attrition is taking place, again much like the Robotyne salient. It’s called a meat grinder and you seem to be unable to grasp the concept. You are so confused that you equate Ukrainians being attrited in positions that can’t be developed as “moving forward” and somehow threatening the Russian defensive line. You are in a word: delusional.
David Axe from Forbes?
You actually posted him as a source? Now that is comical.
You really have no clue. Maybe read some of his material. Now, I understand your ‘condition’.
Oh, is Axe a neo-con? You guys are consistent for sure!
Now you’ve done it Političar. You went and criticized one of his sources. Now we wont get another one for months.
This loss was most likely due to the scumbag GOP in the HOR.
Ah yes, blaming the GOP, something Biden has already done. So, you keep good company. But what you’re failing to mention is that $60 billion, which a large chunk goes to keep Ukraine’s government paid, won’t be near enough to make any significant difference on the battlefield. For some reason the US stating that they will not arm Ukraine to the point that it draws the US into a direct shooting war with Russia just doesn’t sink into your head. Instead, you’ll just continue cheerleading more death for the very people you claim to support.
They’re a typical neocon scumbag.
They have chosen to fight. I will continue to support it.
They’ve chosen to be duped into believing that the “west” will support them enough for them to be victorious. That is what you support. It would be different if the US hadn’t made it known from the very beginning that this was all about weakening Russia. It’s sad that you’ve been taken in, you actually seem smarter than that.
Duped into defending their homes and families? I think not.
Glug, glug, glug…….
Another glass please!
And that’s what you always fall back to. A cease fire and a negotiated settlement would allow those that still have homes to be able to live in them. But they will be duped into believing that losing more homes and family members is the course to keep. It’s worked out so well for them thus far. Can’t have all the death and destruction be for naught. John McCain never really dies.
Putin’s never going to allow that. I — unlike you — live in the real world, Mr. Chamberlain.
I get it. Hitler. So, you’ve gone 180 again. Russia can’t win a war of attrition even though they have a much more populous country. Their artillery doesn’t shoot straight. Their nukes don’t work. Their Army is incompetent. But look out, the next Hitler is being ignored.
That’s not what wars r u.s. said, though. He said: “They’ve chosen to be duped into believing that the ‘west’ will support them enough for them to be victorious.” Which is true. No one faults them for fighting for their country.
His typical responses validate that he is not “smarter than that” and I often wonder if he and Don Julio are the same person.
He probably uses ChatGPT and cut/paste.
I will credit him with the emotionally unbalanced comments, slurs and insults. Complete mastery with that.
“smarter than that”
Yeah no. He’s pretty fucking dense. He’s also shown that all his sources are neocon astroturf.
You guys just keep talking in your own fishbowl
You’re a neocon dirtbag so you will “continue to support” any military action that further transfers wealth from the middle class to the war profiteers.
Been that way for most is human history. Wolves at the gate require dogs to protect. All of you seem to think you can just wish away the badness. You can’t. You want to stop weapons from being built. Too f**king late, gang! Jesus Christ!
World peace would be fantastic but it NOT F**KING ACHIEVEABLE. Many humans — if you haven’t noticed — would crawl over their dying mother to f**k their sister! Grow up, FFS!
Look at the rage. You are one sick puppy. Good thing that someday soon your ilk will belong to the dustbin of history where you belong.
Yes. Look at the rage! OK, a**wipe. Your so far away from having the ability to se reality that it’s impossible to reason with you. Keep trying to convince yourself, you toddler.
RAGE. RAGE RAGE. Hahaha.
Reality? Why don’t you explain it to me. What reality am I missing? That we have to continue to enrich the parasite war profiteer class at the expense of our lifeblood? We have to continue this for all time? That’s not going to fly for much longer you ignorant sod. All empires fall and the American Empire is waning if you haven’t noticed.
How many poor conscripted Ukrainians sent to “defend” this worthless town died for no reason? How many civilians did they murder in Donetsk with American weapons from this town? And yet, zero appetite for talks. Another forever war for no good reason.
How many poor conscripted Russians sent to “assault” this worthless town died for no reason?
It was to secure Donetsk City from Ukrainian artillery bombardment.
Was Donetsk City being shelled? Show me some evidence of that.
Also, I’m sure 47,000 Russians were worth it! Keep ‘em coming!
I understand that using google is hard:
https://www.reuters.com/world/eight-killed-after-ukraine-shells-russian-controlled-city-donetsk-mayor-2024-01-21/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62952641
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-08-23/h_edfeb613b3ff4cce56b158b786029bf1
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-deadly-shelling-donetsk/32527565.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/three-killed-artillery-attack-donetsk-market-separatist-news-agency-2022-06-13/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-forces-shell-russian-controlled-donetsk-officials-say-2022-12-15/
OK. I stand corrected.
How could you be so unaware of this well known and basic information about the war? What else are you unaware of? I mean given your delusional commenting history it seems to be quite a bit.
See what an a**hole you are? (I’m not following what cities are being bombed/shelled. There’s plant of them.) But there you are, being correct once in a blue moon and jumping up and down. Your family must love being around you.
Cry more. I can’t abide clueless fuckers like yourself who can’t take five minutes to familiarize yourself with the things you are commenting on. I don’t expect you to be aware of any pertinent primary literature, but the fact that you aren’t even aware of simple facets of the war like the strategic significance of Avdiivka is telling. It tells us all that you are one braindead propagandist who can’t tell his mouth from his asshole.
“47,000 Russians”
Citation needed. I won’t hold my breath.
Ukrainian sources for sure; but even if it’s half that. Whew, boy…
That is horrible. All deaths in US proxy wars are horrible. But we didn’t fund the Russians to die for that worthless town. That’s on Russia’s government.
It wasn’t worthless. It was a fortress, which is why it took the Russians so long to take it. It was from Avdieka, and surrounding villages, that much of the shelling of Donetsk was directed. I think a lot of people in Donetsk are happy that Avdiika has fallen.
Several days ago they sent to Avdeevka their best motivated experienced elite troops “Azov” to save the situation. Then uncontrolled massive run away from Avdeevka started. “Azov” ran first. Only next day after the unorganized retreat started, the commander-in-chief issued an order to leave Avdeevka. Most of their equipment and vehicles were abandoned because on foot was the safest way to get out. Still they had huge casualties while retreating. A lot of them got in captivity.
Great job Russia.
Great job, Russia!
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-avdiivka-losses-casualties-ukraine-soviet-union-afghanistan-war-1871177
The Ukrainians left their weapons and equipment and fast-walked out of the town on back roads and trails. RT has the video;
https://www.rt.com/russia/592650-ukrainian-troops-avdeevka-retreat/
Wow, and after only eight years of defending it from Russia’s LPR/DPR proxies and two more years of defending it from Russian regulars.
You, Mr. Knapp, are in the running to be the very last well-informed observer to accept that what we are seeing in Ukraine is a deliberately-paced war of attrition and that all of the available evidence indicates that Russia has been moving inexorably toward its objectives in that war since changing course in the wake of US-NATO’s refusal to negotiate an end to the fighting in the first months following the invasion.
When and if I come across any evidence to suggest that your claim is correct, I’ll accept that claim.
Until and unless such evidence shows up, I’ll go with what evidence there is.
I do wish that the US/NATO hadn’t leaned on Ukraine to stop negotiating after Lavrov rejected Ukraine’s reasonable offer in April of 2022. That presumably hardened Russian resolve, even if it didn’t improve Russian prospects.
I think before the Russian redeployment in September of 2022 you had a point, but since that time they have been pursuing an attritional strategy. As you probably know in attritional warfare territorial gains are not the measure of success. How the Russians will move forward is a good question. I don’t think they want to push too hard because they want to limit losses as much as possible, but they also need to keep the pressure on to force counter attacks where they can continue to attrit the Ukrainian army using a combination of artillery, rockets, drones, and aviation.
Other than direct NATO intervention, Putin will keep plodding along.
Or should we discuss Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensives, active defenses, military leadership changes, etc?
NATO has been there all along..All of the “mercenaries” from nato countries, living in hotels, and directing much of the action, are hardly innocent volunteers..
Of course, just like in every other conflict.
I am talking legitimate ground, air and naval mobilization.
The 2023 counter offensive that was probably botched by the guy who was replaced? How many of Putin’s generals have been replaced? How about the admiral who was recently replaced when he allowed more Russian ships to be turned into submarines? I’m thinking there’s a Russian Air Force general about to be replaced too — after losing quite a few of their fighters and figther- bombers.
If Zaluzhnyi had followed what NATO advisors wanted him to do the Ukrainian army would be in worse shape than it is today. Do you not remember the first days of the counteroffensive? Also, weren’t you the guy praising Zaluzhnyi for mixing up tactics instead of massing forces?
Yes. Until more information comes out. THAT’S how the real world works, son.
What are you referring to? What new information? You spent months praising Zaluzhnyi’s changing of tactics and now some new information has come out? It looks like you are flailing about to grasp at any straw you can to salvage your crumbling worldview, much like the Ukrainian leadership.
The general was likely pulled out to salvage his reputation, it coming just before the Ukraine military collapses. If he does actually wind up in London as the cushy ambassador to the UK, he will likely be groomed to replace Zelensky when the time comes. The Ukrainian nationalists are big fans of the guy.
Other than direct NATO intervention, Putin will keep plodding along.
Ukraine will be slowly eroded. Putin will do whatever it takes.
Get it?
“Counteroffensive was probably botched….”
😆
Good one!
At the current pace, it will be Putin’s grandchildren plodding along when and if Ukraine finally becomes fully “eroded.”
Ukraine has already become significantly eroded. 18-20%.
That’s a weird prediction. Let’s break this down; in 2022 Russia overreached, badly; when the Ukrainians turned out to be far better trained, more numerous, and more willing to fight than expected, the Russians withdrew from their vulnerable positions to more defensible lines while they built up their forces to more appropriate strength levels, while exacted a very large cost on the Ukrainian military.
In year 2, they stopped all Ukrainian attacks cold, with virtually no loss of territory, while managing to seize the major fortified defensive positions of Soledar and Bakhmut.
Now, at the start of year 3, with much more powerful forces than they had in 2022, they have taken the major fortified defensive position of Avdiivka, are attacking all along the line and threatening other important, long fortified positions as well.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, which in 2022 had a sizeable numerical advantage over the Russians engaged in Ukraine, and were bolstered by many thousands of armored vehicles and fire support systems from the West (a lot of it obsolete junk, but still) have squandered most of that beating their heads against prepared defensive positions, gaining absolutely nothing. They are running short of men, with their experienced combat units at about 50% strength (according to their own reporting) and the West cannot meet Ukraine’s ammunition demands, and doesn’t even seem to be trying to.
Based on all that, it looks like the Russians should wind this up this year. Unless things change again, but I don’t see that happening, as practical western aid (useable systems and ammunition) is now far less than it was last year and Ukraine has far fewer trained people available to use what they get. What “crystal ball” are you looking at that changes the facts on the ground?
“with much more powerful forces than they had in 2022”
Highly unlikely.
By every estimate, Russia’s army is bigger, better equipped, and far more capable than it was in 2022.
see:
https://cepa.org/article/russias-military-has-improved-the-west-should-take-note/
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/19/russias-military-has-adapted-is-now-a-formidable-enemy-for-ukraine.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/rate-of-russian-military-production-worries-european-war-planners
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-13/russia-expanding-military-edge-over-ukraine-estonian-spies-warn
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/13/us/politics/russia-sanctions-missile-production.html
That’s just a sampling; many. many more reports of this nature exist, and NONE of these are “pro-Russian” sources.
So; re your flippant little retort; It seems highly likely you are mistaken.
“Far more capable” is something that gets demonstrated on the battlefield.
Or doesn’t.
So far, it hasn’t been.
Except, in the taking of Avdiivka, over the last 4 months, it has. As compared to the woeful showing of the Ukrainians in the Robtyne sector, fortified by the Russian over 6 months; Avdiivka had been fortified by the Ukrainians over the past 8 years. The Russians did a tactically excellent job; first seizing the high ground (the fortified slag heap), then cutting off the three main fortified areas from each other, while working their way around the flanks and establishing fire control over the 2 paved MSRs. Meanwhile, they’re still fighting in Robotyne.
After eight years of proxy preparation and two years of regular military effort, finally taking a town “over the last four months” is an embarrassment, not a testament to great military power or prowess.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce356bda2eb8936906a1c034481818cbf66fb9776d58584e2e5348e9a83f65b8.png
The assault began in November of last month, as part of an organized offensive following Russia’s defeat of Ukraine’s offensive. What is this “proxy preparation” you are so hung up about? two sides, one of which wasn’t even a real army. shooting at each other intermittently? That’s pretty silly. By that standard, Ukraine is completely ineffective as well, as they failed to take Donetsk city after 8 years of shelling as well.
The Russians started trying to take Avdiivka through their LPR/DPR proxies, in 2014. Then they started trying to take Avdiivka with regular troops in 2022. Now that they’ve finally succeeded, it’s suddenly all about the last four weeks.
When have I ever claimed any great prowess for the Ukrainian forces? When they remain on the defensive, especially in well-prepared positions, they’re good at exacting a high cost for slow progress on the part of their attackers — and the opposite is also true. When they try to take the offensive, they get mauled. Which is why they should remain on the defensive if they want to survive this war.
Actually, Avdiivka was originally part of the Donetsk separatist rebellion; it was TAKEN by the Ukrainian army in their attempt to reconquer the DPR (not “taken” by the DPR), and when that failed, it was fortified by Ukraine and used as a firebase and staging hub for Ukraine’s continued attacks against the DPR.
And NO, the Russians didn’t waste a lot of time or assets against Avdiivka in 2022; their hope was for a thrust at Kiev to persuade the Ukrainians to negotiate peace on Russia’s terms. When that failed, Russia withdrew to defensible positions to build their force up to the size needed to fight a real war, and while that was happening, they thrashed the Ukrainians during their 2023 offensive. Now, reorganized, upscaled, and better equipped, the Russians are resuming their offensive, and took Avdiivka, pretty professionally, in 4 months.
Which brings us back to my original point; the Russian Army, NOW, is bigger, better equipped, better organized, better led, and more proficient than it was in 2022. You claimed it wasn’t. Yet your own comments regarding Avdiivka (failed for 10 years with the old, succeeded in 4 months with the new) prove that it is.
As always, we’ll see. The russians are currently attacking, and taking ground, in at least ten separate sectors; the Ukrainians sole “offensive action” is stuck on a mud flat in Krynky, going nowhere and being bombed around the clock.
“Which brings us back to my original point; the Russian Army, NOW, is bigger, better equipped, better organized, better led, and more proficient than it was in 2022.”
That was your claim. Whether it’s a point or not is a different question.
It’s presumably bigger — even with more than a million Russians fleeing to other countries, conscription has probably increased its size.
The disappearance of modern battle tanks and their replacement with 70-year-old scrap indicates that it’s probably not better equipped.
Whether it’s better organized/led is an open question. Some commanders have been fired or killed and been replaced. Maybe the new ones have learned some things.
As for its proficiency, that depends on whether the troops who have survived for four years have been able to impart their knowledge on how to do so to the conscripts.
There is no “disappearance” of modern MBTs; yes the Russians have employed many older tanks, not as “replacements” for the modern versions, but as supplemental SP guns, used in the indirect fire mode, taking advantage of the immense cold war stocks of 100MM HE shells that are no longer a standard caliber for Russian units. That is a perfectly sensible supplement for a war where artillery fire is the dominant technique.
Russian production/rehab of T-72 BVM, T-80s,and T-90s is running at about 100 per month – confirmed by WESTERN sources, as the links I provided to you the last time you brought this up confirm. The Military Summary channel contains many video links, including from the Ukrainian side, showing Russian tanks in action; they ALL show T-72/T-80/T-90 models; I have yet to see one showing T-55s.
The Russian Army’s “proficiency” was pretty clearly proven in the recent Avdiivka fighting; certainly at least as good, against a much more competent, better fortified, and better armed enemy, then our fighting in Fallujah was. Or the IDFs in Gaza, for that matter. And, Western reports were full of Ukrainian comments, during their failed offensives, of the fighting competence of the Russians in defense. So there’s that.
As far as “Russians fleeing conscription”; there has only been one supplemental callup, at the end of 2022; most Russian growth has been from volunteers, something that has largely dried up on the Uke side. And any Russians “fleeing” seems to be at least matched, if not exceeded, by Ukrainians fleeing (or bribing) their way out of service.
Are you willing to invest in Ukrainian government bonds since you think Ukraine’s prospects look so good?
I don’t think the Ukrainian regime’s prospects look “good.”
The best they can reasonably hope for, in my estimation, is a return to “frozen conflict” with the Donbas in Russian possession. They’d have been better off just recognizing the LPR/DPR secessions in 2014 and moving on.
On the other hand, the Russian forces aren’t doing so well either. When you’re reduced to celebrating the taking of Avdiivka after eight years of proxy effort and two years of direct effort as if it was Paulus surrendering at Stalingrad, you clearly don’t have much to brag about.
Well, it is an accomplishment for them, even if it took a long time to realize. How long did it take abolitionists in America to end slavery? Does the length of time to accomplish something detract from its value or significance?
Bottom line: what you think about this matters not a wit, indeed is witless.
From its value or significance? No.
From the pretense to military invincibility and inevitable victory? Absolutely.
The Russian Federation’s forces have taken longer just trying to secure Donetsk than the Red Army took to get from Stalingrad to Berlin.
Russians wants to keep sending meatwaves? OK by me. They want to get their armor destroyed to the point of using tanks from the 1950s? Fine.
Remember: the Ukes are defending their homes and families. Russians are defending Putin’s pride. We’ll see who wins.
Slava Ukraini!
Yes we will see in the end. Care to place a wager now?
And in the end, it won’t be OK with you.
And since 2014 the Russian majority in the east was also defending their right to use their language, their land, and their common Eastern Orthodox faith that was being stripped from them.
2024 will be very interesting.
Sure. What’s the wager?
The Russian majority broke away because they thought Putin would give them a better deal. I’m not sure they still believe that but the toothpaste is out of the tube.
Yes. 2024. I expect you to be here and concede if/when Ukraine advances?
I will acknowledge the end result regardless of the ‘victor’.
What I will never accept is the Empire’s spin on the accompanying narrative.
The real story here is the failing Empire that wreaked havoc as a uni-polar hegemony since 1990 and is unwilling to accept a diminished role in a multi-polar geopolitical environment.
Ukraine is just a part of this equation that includes former Yugoslavia, Kosovo, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Palestine, and, Asia Pacific.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1759142020898042165?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1759142020898042165%7Ctwgr%5Ee3e03137ffbc5528d2426d4156d34c7a999777ed%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2024%2F2%2F18%2F2224138%2F-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Prost-gegen-Putin
The translation:
“Over the fact that Syrsky skillfully pulled out of the “cauldron” in Avdeevka, which was “taken for a long time and with difficulty, even that small part of the Ukrainian troops that could still be “pinched” there.
I feel bad about this because a couple of hours ago they told me numbers that I will publish after all. When you start roughly estimating from the text of the published [Putin’s] “congratulatory telegram” how much this is in the burnt “boxes” [vehicles] – four tank regiments that distinguished themselves in advancing several kilometers over 4 months and one distinguished tank division, how much is this in dead people – this whole list of distinguished motorized rifle units, which did not even include the “St. Petersburg” mobile regiment 1487, “reduced” almost to zero, to a control company and headquarters, which eventually went into another attack when the personnel ran out.. perhaps it’s not so bad. “Maybe I’m wrong”. But then we already have the numbers…
Since October.
From Nevelskoye to Novoselovka.
16 thousand irretrievable losses on our part.
And about 300 knocked out armored vehicles.
[end quote from source]
And the enemy, having carried out a defensive battle and suffered, in the best case for us, irretrievable losses of 5-7 thousand during the same time (this is my rough estimate, and not some known data), says “Goodbye!” and leaves. To new, pre-prepared positions.
However, that’s not even the worst thing, dear Evgeniy. If, as a result of all this, as well as based on the results of Marinka, a large criminal case had been opened, it would not have been so bad. The worst thing in this story, the worst sign of future new fuck ups, is that a soldier from the “destroyed” regiment 1487, when he brings a statement to the St. Petersburg military prosecutor’s office, is refused to accept this statement according to the established procedure, popularly explaining that those whom he wants to punish those who have already been appointed heroes.
And you, soldiers… die in silence.”
The LPR/DPR were mostly armed by the US coup forces switching sides to avoid attacking fellow Ukrainians in typical US terrorist mode. Americans could learn much by listening to the philosopher president, Vladimir Putin.
Oh, man! Your Putin Love is really strong today!
I admire leadership ability and am saddened to see very little of it in terrorist colonial empire western countries.
Jeez. Get off of him already.
It took the Greeks 10 years to take Troy. The Trojans still lost. They ended up dead, raped, or enslaved. But Wow! Ten years! That’s worth something, eh?
The fall of Avdeevka will at least remove it as a base for artillery attacks against the civilians of Donetsk city, which Avdeevka has been these past 10 years. That is a good thing. Or do you have a problem with that?
If the civilians of Donetsk city prefer to be treated as Russian livestock rather than as Ukrainian livestock, I have no problem with them getting their way.
So your response to my pointing out that the residents of Donetsk might feel that the removal of a mortal threat to their lives and the lives of their children is not really valid?
If the civilians of Donetsk city prefer to be treated as Russian livestock rather than as Ukrainian livestock, I have no problem with them getting their way.
Interesting lack of empathy. Your attitude just supports those who argue that libertarians are psychologically and emotionally immature, sociopathic even.
Which makes it significant. It was a fortress. And it went down in two weeks after the Russians got their first foothold in it.
Those videos show what? (Did you even watch them?) I saw 4-5 soldiers running. That’s a “rout”? I also didn’t see any evidence of “heavy equipment” that was “left behind”. But I’m sure RT got the story right.
It was not a huge group yet there were quite a few more than four or five.
There might not have been much heavy equipment left in Avdiivka but if there was not much of it got out. The only road was not only exposed to Russian fire but a dirt one and muddy. Would move faster on foot and through the tree lines.
There was actually a great deal of heavy equipment in Avdiivka proper, and in the coke plant, particularly artillery, mortar, and ATGM systems; they have been dug into bunkers, in many cases, and could not be extracted under fire. Avdiivka was a heavily fortified position used as a firebase and a staging area for attacks on Donetsk. Not so much armor, as it would be of little use in the built up areas, but a great deal of firepower and supplies. It is a major loss, no matter how much CNN tries to spin it.
A generous definition of the term “withdrawal”. The Ukrainians left behind their vehicles, heavy equipment, artillery, accumulated supplies, many of their wounded, and hundreds of cut off troops.
Retreating, mostly on foot, with nothing but what they can carry, through muddy fields being stalked by FPV drones and shelled by mortars and artillery, is a more accurate description.
It wasn’t an organized withdrawal. They were told a relief force consisting of one Azov brigade would come help. It was blasted by the Russians as they tighten the noose. A few thousand Ukes were told to make a run for it. A thousand were killed and 500 taken prisoner.
Few thousand Russians too, I’m told. How many Russian tanks and armored vehicles again?
That’s it? Earlier you were claiming 47 ka? Now it’s only a few thousand?
In the last few days. There’s definitely video (from the Russians) of that. I will NOT be posting dead body videos.
You’re so principled. Will advocate for endless proxy wars, but won’t post dead body videos. You are quite the upstanding citizen, aren’t you? Regardless it would be pretty dumb to assume the attacking army wouldn’t suffer some appreciable casualties. It’s like you just discovered how warfare works. You: “OMG the Russians took casualties when on the offensive in Avdiivka. Therefore Ukraine is winning !!!!oneeleven11111!!!!!! Hurr Durr anyone who disagrees is a tankie!!!!!!!1111eleven!” That’s how stupid you sound. Once again, I suggest you do some reading of the primary literature and acquaint yourself as to how attritional warfare works and then you will be less susceptible to propaganda and as an added benefit you won’t come across as an uneducated moron here on Antiwar.
Great Map Dave…!
Any loss of life is tragic, but even if it’s not half of that it’s not really that big of a loss (from a strategic perspective) given that upwards of 30,000 Russians are joining the military every month. And this according to Ukrainian sources.
You believe your info is correct because you have to. As you can see, I admit when I’m wrong but you do not have the same ability.
You have presented no evidence beyond one line quips like: “how are things going in Krynky?” My info is correct (as far as I can tell) because I have been tracking the bridgehead in Krynky for months now and have seen the back and forth on the maps with my own eyes. Now I admit maybe all these pro Ukrainian and Russian mappers I follow are wrong, but as I said you have provided no evidence for your assertions other than pithy one liners. I won’t hold my breath as you continually refuse to link to your sources because one time I criticized you linking to the institute for the study of war. Like a little bitch you continue to moan about that one incident and use that as a justification for you not needing to provide sources to back up your claims. How convenient for you.
No sources because you don’t like any of them. How convenient for YOU.
But I am not the only person on this website. I would think that you would want to bolster your argument by backing up what you say with sources. I guess you care more about not having your sources criticized than making a believable argument. Either way, I don’t care as it makes dismantling your pathetic attempts at Ukraine apologia that much easier.
If you think so.
And yet, Russian planes keep falling out of the sky. The Ukrainians have definitely lost this war! I can’t wait for the Quincy Institute to declare it!
So no you can’t tell me what this new information is? What a tool.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-shoots-down-six-russian-144638660.html
It’s not about what I think, it’s about your behavior. Once again I note that I am not the only person on this website. I would think that you would want to bolster your argument by backing up what you say with sources. I guess you care more about not having your sources criticized than making a believable argument.
I don’t need to make my argument believable. Facts on the ground support my arguments. When I’m wrong I admit it. You’re a bandwagon MFer. You’re all over the site when something goes Russia’s way but crickets or dismissal when the Ukes gain some advantages
I see so ethereal facts on the ground support your arguments, but no one really knows what those facts are because you won’t link to them? Got it.
So we went from discussing how Zaluzhnyi “botched the counteroffensive” to Russian air losses? I think part of your and DJ’s incoherence is that you are trying so hard to answer so many comments from so many people that you forget what the topic of conversation actually is. What does Russia losing 6 jets have to do with the failed counteroffensive? You said you had some new information in regard to Zaluzhnyi botching the counteroffensive. What is it?
You may be right. I didn’t understand what you were looking for.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wgkepvR6TTk
Thank you.
So what part do I need to go to? I’m 18 min in and it’s a puff piece on why I should totally be excited about Ukraine’s new general. Why can’t you just tell me the new information and link to the timestamp?
Can’t do the work for you.
So you can’t tell me the new information? Sounds like there is none and you are now dissembling. A brief perusal of this channel shows why you have been completely wrong about everything. Let’s look at some video titles starting 10 months ago up to present and it will become clear:
Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Can be a Game-Changer
Breakthrough in Avdiivka: Trouble for Russia
Ukraine to Liberate BPR and MOLDOVA
Russian Implosion Imminent
Ukraine DESTROYS EVERYTHING: Hot Summer for Russians
The Collapse is Coming
Russian Offensive GOING NOWHERE
Not going to spend 20 more minutes of my life trying to find this “new information.” You once again have made a fool of yourself.
I understand that you require everything to be spoon fed to you. I won’t do that. You close your mind and then call me a fool. OK. I’ll keep engaging you and you can keep waiting for some other adult in the room to explain it to you, son.
My dude when you make claims you have to back them up. I understand that is difficult for you, but our dissembling and obfuscation are clear as day. Like I said you keep making yourself look like an ass.
That’s fine. I don’t live and die by your opinion. You require me to teach you like a student and I don’t have the time nor do I have the inclination to do so. You keep believing in Putin and the Russians. I’ll keep believing in freedom fighters and the new Ukrainian command. You don’t have to give me examples from the Quincy Institute and I don’t have to teach a class to you.
BTW, it is you that comes off ignorant and arrogant at the same time. You see some daily change in the war map and grab into it to support your flawed take on the war as a whole. You won’t admit error on your part and you dismiss positive Ukrainian moves. You exude tankie energy. Good luck going forward.
So no, once again, you can’t back up your BS with any sources. You claimed that Zaluzhnyi “botched” the counteroffensive based on “new information,” but you won’t tell us what the new information is. Pretty hilarious actually. Especially after you were praising him for switching up tactics.
I don’t know what your sudden obsession is with the Quincy Institute. One time linked to Responsible Statecraft (an article I found on the front page of Antiwar.com) which said the the “Putin lover” label had jumped the shark in response to one of tequila man’s asinine comments. I occasionally read the website when linked here on the front page. Other than that I have read zero material, academic or otherwise, from the Quincy Institute. It is entertaining watching you wield the name as some kind of gotcha though.
Similar to Thunder Run, huh?
No as one was a prediction based on what you were reading on twitter and believing and the other was me poking fun at Tequila Man’s closet Putin love. So, no not really the same at all.
Gotcha. But if you persist on fixating on one thing someone says, then I’ll respond accordingly. Did you see you have a new fellow traveler commenting. Apparently, we now have to witness events with our own eyes for them to be true. Interesting move of the goal posts. Tankie logic never fails to amaze me so you’ll maybe understand next time when I don’t post a source.
It seems you don’t like it when your own words are used against you, do you? Like I’ve said and will continue to say: we are all still waiting for the “thunder run to Crimea.” It’s not like there aren’t other examples to choose from, but the thunder run example is just such a classic example of you getting all excited by the propaganda and then completely shooting yourself in the foot. A little while back you made some detailed predictions that will be nice cannon fodder when they inexorably turn to dust like the rest of your botched predictions. I kind of suspect that by the time you will have quit the site in embarrassment or moved on to some other handle so as to avoid accountability for your comment history.
Yeah. Sometimes predictions go that way, huh? You think it’s mental judo but it’s just a childish approach to an argument. We come here and comment based on what we see/read but none of us know for sure. You don’t know s**t any better than anyone else. You hide behind academic interpretation of war. (That’s OK. It’s not like I served in the military either.) But it doesn’t make you any more prescient than anyone else. Information is provided by media. We try to make a point about what we have digested.
You seem all bent up because some here don’t agree with you. No problem having a difference of opinion.until you start acting like a petulant child. You may not be MAGA but you have all the trappings of those cultists. But I’ll keep showing up and proving you wrong. I’ll get something wrong in the future and you can jump on it again — like the schoolboy you are.
Cry harder. All you do is come on here and talk in generalizations and the few times you have been specific it has been hilariously wrong. Of course we all make mistakes and are wrong about some things, but man neocon morons like you and tequila man have gotten everything wrong.
The media: “Russia’s first victory since Bakhmut!” They always pretend Russia didn’t defeat Ukraine’s summer offensive. They never, ever use the word defeat. Instead they say the offensive “stalled,” or at most “failed”. As if it happened by itself. No. The Russians defeated it, with fortifications, artillery, and superior tactics.
Ukrainians “withdrew” from Avdiivka? They didn’t “withdraw,” that’s Ukrainian propaganda. They were ROUTED, the soldiers ran on their own, and Syrsky’s order to withdraw came a day after that to save face.
But all the Biden-loyal media lie about that.
They also pretend that the Russians used “human waves,” which haven’t been used by either side in this war. Where are the Ukrainian movies and photos of these “human waves”? Or even of the aftermath? There are none, ever. And the media make sure to never ask for them.
They claim that the Russians “walked over the bodies of their own comrades.” It was the Ukrainians who did that. They lost thousands upon thousands.
The Russians had TEN TIMES more artillery, at least, and most casualties in the war come from artillery and air munitions. With the soldiers sent to direct the artillery. So how could the Russians lose more? Especially since they have moved so carefully to take Avdiivka piecemeal, as more honest reporters on both sides in Ukraine and Russia have noted.
Um, yes, as Syrsky replaced Zaluzhny only days before the rout. To write “the first big victory for Russia since” makes it sound like significant time had passed.
He is lying. He wanted them to stay there and die, like he always does. That’s why he’s called “General 200” by the soldiers, referring to the 200 kilo a coffin, a dead body and the transport box from the front weigh put together.
Zaluzhny also wanted the men to die defending Avdiivka, “heroically to the end.” So he gave the order to send in the Azov Brigade, which the media lyingly only call the “3rd Assault Brigade.” But they saw that they were sent to a western Avdiivka with no fortifications left, nothing prepared, where they’d be hit from all sides. Wisely they didn’t go in there. Though some fought in the coke plant, until they withdrew from there as well today.
The Ukies mine everything as they withdraw, forcing the Russians to blow up civilian buildings, so that leftist media then wail over how the bad Russians are destroying buildings. The Ukies have over and over again placed their troops, vehicles and artillery inside the cities, using buildings and civilians. As they did in Avdiivka. The media never mention that.
The towns to the west of Avdiivka have some fortifications, but facing southward. They will be easier to take.
Ukraine’s much-touted taking of Robotyne is failing now as well. The Russians are in the townlet. It will be freed within days. WHAT WAS THE POINT of sending in more and more conscripts there to die, when the Ukies could never advance from it? Likewise in Krynky – just so Zelensky could say “look, we have a foothold on the Russian side of the river.” The Russians have been using that “foothold” to kill or wound by artillery all Ukrainians sent there. HALF of them die in the boats on the river, as Ukrainian soldiers have reported.
Avdiivka was the most fortified position in Ukraine, after Bakhmut. After Avdiivka there are no significant fortifications before the Dniepr River, and none there either.
However, the Russian command says they won’t do any big movements – they’ll keep advancing incrementally, wearing down the Ukies by pressing on all fronts. The Russians have a 3-to-1 and even 10-to-1 artillery advantage everywhere on the battlefront. Most casualties in the war are from artillery and bombs.
With Ukraine’s Soviet-era anti-air missiles all but depleted, the Russian air force now operates freely. It played a big role in Avdiivka. Artillery is not optimal for breaking down fortifications, knowledgeable officers say, the heavy bombs dropped from planes are.
This is a good overview of how it all went down. I was reading about Ukrainians abandoning their positions 3 or 4 days before the announced withdrawal.
Here is another good overview of this retreat.
Thanks for the link.
What shot down the six Russian fighters and fighter-bombers?
Did you witness that? You must know that most of what we read is propaganda.
Oh, OK. We have to be there for it to be real. That’s a new take on the Russian losses. Good luck with that!
But your information is spot-on? I’ll keep that in mind.
You are full of shit.
The Russian Army is just a big embarrassment.
From taking Ukraine in 3 days to struggling to take the smallest cities defended by 15 Ukrainian soldiers.
Yes, Ukraine withdrew but not before they killed thousands of Russian troops and destroyed hundreds of their equipment.
Remember when Ukraine retook Kharkiv and Kherson, I guess they defeated the Russians then, based on your BS analysis.
But but but, that was different… No, it was not.
Who here claimed that Russia would take Ukraine in three days? No one, that’s who.
So Don, please grace us with your incredible insight and knowledge and explain how this conflict will resolve. We’ve had enough of your reactive posts that have zero substance.
Put on your big boy pants, man up, and tell us about the military strategy of America for make benefit glorious nation of Ukraine. 😂
Let’s go. We’re waiting……….
I am disappointed that antiwar.com has not published anything yet about the suspicious death of Alexei Navalny. We can disagree over Putin’s motivation for the Ukraine war or whether Putin’s opposition to the US/NATO world order is principled or opportunistic. But people who believe in liberty need to raise questions when a leading 47 year old dissident unexpectedly dies in custody and the government that imprisoned him has provided no clear and convincing explanation after four days. What’s up at antiwar.com? Don’t we question authority?
Jeffrey Epstein.
Ha! I have it on good authority that it is 1000% chance that he killed himself. Definitely no foul play there.
No cameras in operation that day in the NYC jail. Freaky coincidence.
There will always be questions when a political figure dies. The initial report was blood clot. Who not in position to really knows? Seems unlikely a Putin murder though considering it comes the same weekend as the biggest victory in the war. Stealing thunder from the troops and competing in the news for a PR victory would be stupid and incompetent. Not to mention, hinder his own PR coup from the Tucker interview.