A new IAEA report on Iran’s uranium stockpile means a new round of misleading predictions of proliferation risk. The big figure showed that since November, Iran has doubled its stockpile of its mostly highly enriched uranium.
The stockpile at 60%, still well below the 90% of weapons-grade, now sits at 33 kg. That’s up from 15.5 kg in November. This lead to claims they are closer to having enough uranium to produce a nuclear weapon.
The fact however is that 60% uranium could not be used in a weapon itself, and while further enrichment could turn it into weapons-grade levels, that’s true of any uranium, and Iran has never attempted to produce uranium at that level.
Trying to make the stockpile sound scarier than it is means trivializing the enrichment process, and glossing over the rest of the process. Even assuming enough weapons-grade uranium, the process of weaponization and miniaturization to produce something deliverable can take a lot of effort.
Moreover, even producing a single weapon is not a viable goal, as testing to prove they have a functional process means destroying the only weapon they have, and subsequently starting back over from square one.
True enough. But of course this whole issue was never about a fictional Iranian nuclear weapons program. It was always about Iran itself and Israel. Which is why people who think the JCPOA is going to be revived are delusional.
Temporarily, because the US needs Iranian oil to replace Russian oil which will be denied it’s market share.
Technically, Russia will be “denied” market share only to the EU – that oil and gas will go to Asia.
So perhaps extreme pressure is NOT the only way to go. Never do the USA’s “all options” consider cooperation. Tiny Cuba has survived 60 years and more of increasing pressure. Does that really make the brave USA feel safer?
So what? Israel has the bomb, and has not signed the NPT and they never will. Iran did. In 1968. Ratified in 1970.
Biden is using the carrot approach to lure Iran back to the table. Not to mention ease the pain at the gas pump.
That much is obvious. But how long will this last, is yet to be determined.