President Biden set out his preparedness to go to war to defend Taiwan from China, while ruling out any concessions to China that might open up a route to avoid such a war.
Chinese officials are following suit, similarly announcing that there is “no room” for any compromise or concession on Taiwan in their policy. Once again, China isn’t laying out a path to avoid a military confrontation.
This is a dangerous position. China’s position is that Taiwan is part of China, and they will get it back. They see the US as driving efforts to keep them from recovering the island. The US, by contrast, doesn’t recognize Taiwan at all, but has a policy of arming the island to resist China, and President Biden now reiterates his willingness to go to war to keep it in this position of nominal independence.
The US and China have managed to avoid war over Taiwan since the Chinese Civil War. The US has sought to avoid confrontation with strategic ambiguity, while China both reiterated its claims to the island, and a willingness to be patient on resolving the matter.
As both sides double-down on the matter, the timing couldn’t be worse for a war. Taiwan’s economy is booming, and the dependence of the global economy on Taiwan-made semiconductors means any war threatening that supply would be a disaster for participants, and everyone else..
That makes this a dangerous situation, where mutual self-interest should be pushing everyone away from war, while both the US and China are so determined to look unyielding that they’re going to see how close to the breaking point they can get.
The 🇺🇸 structures failing to realize there is a very important players in this issue which is taiwan.
Us might just see this as an issue to poke and annoy the dragon but the Taiwanese authorities might miscalculate and just declare independence thinking China still needs us business, will be a rational actor and don’t have that revolutionary zeal anymore.
China has build up it’s forces specifically to counter us in it’s own backyard and BECAUSE China is not a democracy it has to pull the trigger if Taiwanese nationalist zealots declare independence. They will lose legitimacy and I don’t think they can do multiple tianmen which is what they need to do domestically if Xi doesn’t act.
Unlike most here I personally have respect for sakasvhili, I think the man was a nationalist who just wanted his country’s entire landmass under it’s own control but he miscalculated the ability of Georgia overestimated the support available from us and resolve of the Russians.
Tsai might do the same thing and us will have to decide whether to have another loss of face with thousands of their personnel dead or a loss of face with China in taiwan without doing anything or worse of the worse with an escalating war that might end up costing lives of millions.
So to to the us authorities shut the….up.
I do not agree on Saakashvili.
Let me count the ways.
He kept Abkhazia and South Ossetia illegally inside Georgia. Georgia invoked Soviet Constitution in order to exit the union. Under that same Constitution Georgia was obligated to respect referendums by its constituent regions, snd respect their wish to secede or rejoin another entity. These are regions with different language and history. South Ossetia was split from Ossetia in thirties with the right of rejoining Ossetia. Abkhazia was once an independent Principality , and voluntarily joined Russian Empire. It wanted independence back,
Georgia also knew that peacekeepers were stationed at Tskinvali, but attacked them, hoping to push population into refugees, gift them to Russia.
US was shocked that Russia did not just cave in and accept US backed president. He himself was shocked to see Rusdia react.
Uh since I m not familiar with history I thought the two territories were always part of Georgia and was put under autonomous administration under soviet rule as a hedge and make control easier.
Well live and learn😁
Don’t worry, most of us have been in your position.
Trying to debate someone on a subject from a pro-US standpoint using “facts” we learned from US media or history books only to be destroyed when someone brings up the REAL facts and history.
It happens to the “moderator” here at this site all the time.
The US and China are quickly running out of ways to avoid WW III.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Weird equivalence presented in the article: China’s and the US position here are not similarly confrontational. China is reacting to the US provocations, not creating new ones.
They are merely reiterating a long term and widely understood position: there is no formally independent Taiwan. As long as everyone respects that, there’s no problem.
I think Taiwan is getting less comfortable about it thanks to the crackdown in Hong Kong.
I would say that Hong Kong should be an abject lesson to Taiwan. It is not about being comfortable, but about being economically and physically secure. Hong Kong is an example of a former British colony attempting to establish a new order — having all the benefits of mainland economic integration, but remaining politically integrated with UK. Once the design became brazenly clear, and no restrains placed on the damage done to city infrastructure by the extreme elements encouraged by the West — population swung supporting the mainland instead.
Taiwan was poised to get a pro-unification government. The elections were derailed by the chaos in Hong Kong. In the aftermath, it is clearer to population that the extremism of their government will do them no good. This is precisely why this government is trying quickly to change things on ground and get US in.
Their gamble is a wrong one.
Hong Kong dissent was crushed by force. Let the Taiwanese choose their future-they elected a candidate that wishes to preserve their independence.
Was there dissent? You can get easily a violent rampage in any urban environment using combustible, easily manipulated students, snd call it dissent. Ballots should decide, not ideology, destruction of property and human life. Authorities in Hong Kong were too restrained in addressing the violence. Objectivity impels us to avoid ideological cheerleading in favor of “our”, team.
Bottom line is, let them decide.
Historically, mainland won the war against Nazi allied Japan, and Taiwan leadership lost to mainland. The fact that China did nothing against secessionist Taiwan all these years has little to do with our help for the island, and everything to do with China not pursuing military option.
It is our meddling at this point that is causing the polarization. We are trying to shore up the secessionist political party, as there is a great chance of them loosing election.
Far from being reassured, Taiwanese may find our meddling endangering their livelihood and their safety.
We are already interfering in their electoral process by funding media run by former counterintelligence officer to develop anti-China propaganda in Taiwan,
Let ballot box decide what Taiwan wants. Our meddling should end. China will have zero reason to invade Taiwan in the absence of foreign power inserting itself into local politics.
If a war with China breaks outi can see many US ships going to davy jones locker , America depends on it`s carrier fleet in any war it undertakes , without it they are a toothless tiger , China knows this and will i would imagine have it`s subs waiting to sink anything that came into range not to mention hyper sonic missilles .
No troops to protect our own southern border but we can send troops to fight on the other side of the world for Taiwan. We were defeated by a band of towel headed, pajama and sandal clad throwbacks to the Dark Ages in Afghanistan and we think we can win a war with China?
In any even very limited war scenario Taiwan will lose the most, China would not let Taiwan remain a productive US-owned entity. Neither US nor China would suffer major losses, as it is in their both interests to minimize damage.
Taiwan is expendable.
It is up to Taiwan to think hard. Very hard, The only way out for them is to negotiate a long term integration process.
Taking Hong Kong route is not advisable. Cannot expect all the benefits from mainland, while conspiring with foreign powers to undermine China.
Even more dangerous route is an open acceptance of US defense umbrella.
That is likely to change soon. Major users who had their chips manufactured in Taiwan will see risk, and they’ll run to avoid that risk. The chips will soon be manufactured somewhere else.
This level of acrimony has already done that damage. Nobody will now make their business more dependent on Taiwan. It is not prudent, it does not hedge risk.