After Iran’s parliament called for a downgrade of voluntary cooperation, the monitoring agreement for their nuclear program has been vital for the IAEA to keep monitoring compliance with the JCPOA nuclear deal.
Internal politics are threatening to get in the way, however, as the inability to reach a long-term deal to salvage JCPOA and bring the US back into the pact has left everything up to this temporary monitoring deal.
Originally meant to be three months long, the deal expired in late May, and was extended for a single month. The Iranian presidential election is right around the time of the next expiration, late in June.
IAEA chief Rafael Grossi says it’s getting harder to extend the deal, and that’s because President Rouhani’s term in office is up, and Iranian officials are going to leave it up to the next government to work out.
The monitoring deal is necessary for the broader JCPOA deal, and if the P5+1 drag their feet on it until after the election they might find a new government that is more difficult work with, making this time all the more precious.
I predict that the next government of Iran, which will emerge from the June 18 elections, will eventually take Iran out of the JCPOA and revert Iran to the Non Proliferation status for which there can still be inspections but much fewer and less intrusive.
That is the “deal” Iran signed and ratified in 1970. The JCPOA was shoved down Iran’s collective throats.
Israel has not signed the NPT and never will.
I really believe Israel would attack the U.S. if we were to put a brake on what they are doing in the ME. I point to the U.S.S. Liberty as evidence.
They already essentially attacked the US. (There is of course the USS Liberty attack, but that is old hat.)
Most damnably is the case of 911. While they did not directly attack the US in that case, they knew full well of the plan, and had a cohort of Israeli intel in the US — the “Art Students” — who monitored the progress of the plan, and watched US law enforcement for any indication that the plan had been detected. Israel knew that if bin Laden/al Qaeda managed to pull off the attack, that the US would go nuts and go to war with all of Israel’s Arab adversaries. Thus the incomparable strategic value to Israel of a successful 911 attack warranted that they “chaperone” the plan to the extent required — not much, apparently, as it turned out — and under no circumstances would Israel warn the US of what was coming.
Mission Accomplished!
I leave it to the reader to decide whether that was the act of an “ally” or the act of the most vicious and duplicitous of back-stabbing, racial supremacist enemies.
The late and much missed Justin Raimondo made a pretty good case for the hypothesis that the Israelis had at least some foreknowledge related to the 9/11 attacks.
How much foreknowledge, how detailed, and whether it was shared with the US intelligence apparatus and either ignored or mishandled, are different questions for which I’ve not come across any answers accompanied by substantial evidence.
Some pundits have stated their belief that the Cole was his by a missile, not bombed.
By who?