It is an announcement that’s been coming for awhile, but in pushing back the final Afghanistan withdrawal date from May 1 to 9/11, the Biden Administration finally clarified its expectations on America’s longest war and threw another spanner in the works of the peace process which may make future dates tougher to deal with.
The effort to sell everyone on this pullout delay is that the peace process is behind schedule. The Istanbul conference was meant to kickstart that process, but that’s not going to happen now, because the Taliban is boycotting all such conferences until the US makes good on withdrawing.
This puts the whole process into serious doubt, as it’s not clear how an Afghan peace deal can be reached without getting the Taliban to the table, and delaying the pullout is keeping the Taliban away, a predictable result.
It’s not impossible that they will be able to engage the Taliban more seriously in the future, but this probably depends on the newly set September 11 date being taken seriously, and not just as another step down the road.
That’s a tough sell, because it seems unlikely anything will happen from May to September. If Biden wanted to lay the groundwork for staying in Afghanistan, it’s hard to see how he could’ve done so more easily than by reneging on the first date, and setting a second date that’s designed to fail.
The whole “peace talk” idea is crazy anyhow, since the Taliban is winning the war to regain its primacy, which has been recognized by the US in the wording if the Doha Agreement. The Taliban, understandably, isn’t keen on talking to the US puppets in Kabul. Washington is (as usual) acting as if it is charge of the situation, which of course it isn’t. Let’s hope that the Army has enough body bags for cadaver management.
I don’t think the Taliban are going to play along with this extension. They’ve been focused on a date, and they’ve made military plans for what to do if the deadline isn’t met. It is likely they will implement those plans.
They might see a short extension as a tactical option better than ramping up the fight and all its possible excuses for the US to cheat even more.
It is a judgment call. Wishful thinking won’t change fact. Maybe they’ll judge it the way we hope. Maybe not. It is a big risk.
There is no real payoff to the US for taking this risk. It is just an extra six months of war, to the exact same outcome. The only payoff is to politicians self image and imagined public posturing.
The downside of waiting for the Taliban as far as I can see –
1/ it’s a political slap down, showing them they’re not in control and not setting the agenda. Loss of face is a big thing for political groups.
2/ Loss of the summer fighting season – they don’t have the full mobility of the American military, they need the summer to move around their forces and launch attacks. Waiting would be a tactical compromise they don’t want to make.
3/ America may still be an enemy – the USA may withdraw ground troops but continue to drop bombs and deploy special forces to support the enemies of the Taliban. If so, the Taliban might actually prefer American ground troops remain, so they have someone to shoot back at. It makes no sense to wait for the USA to reposition out of their tactical range, before continuing to fight them.
My guess is that Blinken, Sullivan & Austin would like to “re-purpose” the “war”, i.e. from the idealist fp of women’s lib, to the crackpot realism of Russia-China-Iran regime change. Under this rubric they would cut a dirty deal with the Taliban, keep their base and it’s 20k “contractors”.
I’m afraid that is it. And that means that the “war” actually continues unchanged.
https://babylonbee.com/news/having-achieved-peace-in-the-middle-east-us-to-withdraw-troops
I wonder if Bush has changed his mind again.
. . .from FP, Nov 17, 2010
President Bush famously campaigned against nation building in 2000. Critics loved to point out the inconsistency between his campaign rhetoric and the lofty ambitions of the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan. In his new memoir, Decision Points, Bush bluntly admits “After 9/11, I changed my mind.”
Bush said so as early as April 2002, in a speech at the Virginia Military Institute. He said that “We know that true peace will only be achieved when we give the Afghan people the means to achieve their own aspirations. Peace will be achieved by helping Afghanistan develop its own stable government.” In his memoir, one chapter of which is devoted to Afghanistan, Bush writes that “Afghanistan was the ultimate nation building mission. We had liberated the country from a primitive dictatorship, and we had a moral obligation to leave behind something better. We also had a strategic interest in helping the Afghan people build a free society” . .here
I don’t know what they are doing but I don’t trust ‘him. I think the Russian Bear is showing its teeth to some Ukrainians (and if ‘moon ofAlabama website is to be believed(???)) removing border land mines (causing soldier death). You remove mines to prepare for an attack. The Ukrainians where forced to back down from
PresChairman Biden. So….Afghanistan is a conquered backwater. Why is he confirming Afghan pullout but its 120ish days later, I don’t know
Gee, the US made a deal, and now it cheats and won’t keep the deal. This time it was Trump’s deal and Democrats cheating on it.
What ALWAYS happens when you cheat on a deal? Only the supremely entitled fail to see that one coming.