Reflecting a war that has not seen substantial territory change hands in years, the North Yemeni Houthi movement has launched a new offensive in Maarib Province, aiming to overrun a camp held by the Saudi-backed government, which is materially the last stronghold in the north.
Reports are that 20 of the pro-government fighters were killed, 28 wounded. Houthi casualties are reported, but figures are as yet not available, and the Houthis have sent reinforcements to keep contesting the area.
After moving into the southern city of Aden, the Saudi-led invasion force spent early years of the war trying to advance northward on the capital of Sanaa. The first offensive stalled around Taiz, on the main highway connecting the two. This started an alternative offensive aimed to go through Maarib.
The fall of Maarib would be a coup for the Saudi War in Yemen, which is increasingly shaking out with two sides dominating the old Republics of North and South Yemen, before the 1990 unification.
This may ultimately be the simplest way to break up the war, as the Saudis moved the “capital” to Aden long ago, the capital of old South Yemen, and the Houthis seem to have a good deal of control over the north.
The interest in contesting Maarib comes just days after the US moved to remove the Houthis from the list of terrorists. This may be a signal that the US wants a deal made to end the Yemen War, or simply a recognition that the current status quo is roughly where things will end up, so they may as well recognize the Houthis as having survived the conflict.
This has never been in question. North is majority Shia, South majority Sunni. Their divide has not been traditionally sectarian — but institutional. North was for about 1,000 years governed by Zaidi Yemeni dynasty, South by various sultanates, later united in a state.
The forced union of north and south was one of the stupidest outcome of the post-Cold War giddiness.
But the serious problem did not arise until the ill fated arrival to power of Muhsin as Saudi Crown Prince under King Salman. He was to last three months — as under intense pressure from US — Mohammed Bin Nayef was pushed to be Crown Prince, a function of de facto ruler.
Mohsin, before being deposed, was pressured to call for war on Yemen, and he acquiesced to a war of “one month”. Once removed from power, and US supported former Interior Minister took over in 2015, war on Yemen, and worst of atrocities started.
The root of the problem was — Yemen government was not agreeing to US base on the coast controlling Bab Al-Manded Straits.
All of the later maneuvers, including the temporary Hadi government solution, did not lead to the settlement to US liking.
And after Mohammed Bin Nayef was deposed in June 2017, a major complication occurred .
Rather then Saudis being a US proxy to shepherd fractured Yemen into becoming US base friendly, the new regime of MBS has come to suspect that US interest were aimed at controlling Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Egypt by controlling the Straits.
Distrusting US has been the new twist in the war, where Saudis wanted Yemen to be under their control, with the help of Sudan and Egypt. Sudan paid for it by regime change, and MBS is continuously vilified.
But US had another ace — UAE. With US support , UAE took control of the South and essentially challenged Saudis. That resulted initially in UAE victories, all the way up to North Yemen port of Mocha.
Saudi reasserted themselves, took back Aden, and had several rounds of fight between “government” of long out of power Hadi and the South secessionists, aided by UAE and US mercenaries.
But Saudis continued fight against Houthis to insure that Houthis cannot cut any deals with US at their expense. US was hopeful, but when Houthis balked, Trump declared them terrorists. Trump was not supporting Saudis. It is a myth. To Trump or Biden — Either Saudis or Houthis were to agree to US terms.
But Saudis were prepared to continue this war against Houthis and secessionists until they get from US what they need — control of the Yemeni side of Straits.
Sudan did not quite fall under “civil society” spell, and apparently a Russian naval base deal has been signed at Port Sudan, that will service war ships and nuclear submarines. Clearly, with the intention of “freedom of navigation” exercises in Red Sea and the Straits.
The question for Biden administration is — just how much is worth to US the control of Arabian side of the Straits, as US already controls the African side at Djibouti.
So, giving up on the idea of controlling both sides may not be much of sacrifice to end an unpopular war.
At the same time, US is unwilling to let Saudis be victorious, but not happy with Egypt and Sudan drifting away. UAE is still a bit of mystery, as their new friend, Israel may be willing to help in maintaining some presence in the Yemen South.
But Saudis are not sentimental — and are signaling to UAE that their nemesis Qatar is back in favor, along with Turkish troops. A deal between Turkey and Saudis is in the making, and it is as clear as it can be that Turkey and Iran are allies.
UAE may need to lower its expectations in Yemeni Straits and worry more about their Straits of Hormuz.
Is a deal in the making that will go back to two states, with the coast of Yemen — North and South base free?
But surprises are always possible. This is Middle East.