As a power-sharing deal between the Yemeni government and the STC separatists advances, STC forces are moving out of Aden, the interim capital of the government-controlled part of the country.
Before the deal, government and STC fighters often fought over territory across South Yemen. The STC fighters will now be sent toward the front line in the Dale Province to fight the Houthis.
The power-sharing agreement between the two sides has been on hold for many months, and this may indicate new optimism that the deal might last, if the STC is willing to give up strategic territory.
Beyond ending fighting in the south, there is hope that this deal could serve as a framework for an overall peace deal in Yemen, as the Houthis have similarly been open to power-sharing as a means to end the conflict.
The move out of Aden looks more like a deal
that Saudis wanted in order to have one critical port in Bab Al-Mandeb straits under its exclusive control. The government of Yemen is a fiction. President Hadi has long since ceased to be president, but this fiction serves Saudi interests in order to have a legitimate foothold on the coast. Aden has always been significant to British as a colony for the same reason.
Southern separatists have given up Aden to Saudis in a bargain — it remains to be seen what. I suspect it is to get full control over the southern provinces, with a center in Mukkala, the province of Hadramouth. Saudis get full control of Aden city and yet to be determined size of province. This may be a model for settlement for Houthis.
The take from this for me is — Saudis and Emirates had tried collectively and separately to control South, and failed. Even though the geography is not that challenging. Would they try to conquer Houthis in highlands? No. Have they bern capable to control Houthis port if Hodeidah? Not really. UN mucking in the city in the name of distributing aid was always a ruse. US navy off Hodeidah port blocking any country from delivering food and medication (impounded Turkish ship), all in name of “countering” Iran — is as of yet unknown.
But here is a known known. Biden and Democrats are hell bent to punish Saudis for bailing out and stopping cold funding and Wahhabi infusing militant groups everywhere. With this — Gulf followed suit. Militancy at present is Western funded and mercenaries are all that is available. With change in policy, Saudis may no longer seek maximum advantage in settling the crisis. Both Sudan and Egypt are nudging Saudis to settle.
What format the new Yemen will take? More or less, something akin to geography prior to forcible unification. Shia North and secessionist south will gain either outright independence, or there will be a lose confederation with Saudi controlled Aden as “capital”.
The bottom line — US may be very unhappy with the outcome, not gaining foothold on Arabian side of Bab Al-Mandeb. But with Egypt, Sudan and Saudis in agreement, it may not have a pretext for keeping the Yemen war going.
Saudis obliged Trump and kept the war alive, especially as US propped up Emirates for a while.
Now, with Biden in avenger mode against Saudis — no advantage comes to Saudis from keeping the conflict simmer.