Continuing to shift away from difficult to hold military outposts in northern Syria, Turkey started evacuating three bases on Wednesday, including sites in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the troops from the three bases are relocating into the Zawiya Mountain area in a rebel-held part of southern Idlib. Turkey has considered controlling what the rebels have left in Idlib a top priority.
Turkey has been moving away from some of the bases in areas lost by the rebels for months, redeploying to areas in their possession. This has come with complaints about the deal with Russia over Idlib, which has mostly collapsed.
Splitting Idlib between Syrian forces and Turkish rebels did not hold, as the al-Qaeda faction started taking from the rebels, then lost substantial territory to Syria, which they have no intention of turning over to the rebels.
Or to put it more clearly — Turkey and Russia succeeded in splitting various rebels, with many of them surrendering to Turkey, and reassigned to Turkish military away from the zone of separation. Thus — Turkey has been able to remove checkpoints, with Syrian army basically in control of the area.
What happens now? Turkey is focusing on area where some JAI (Jaish Al Islam) are still in turmoil, with some wanting to surrender to Turkey, others staying with HTS.
As reported, key White Helmets personnel is being evacuated. First to Jordan then to Germany, so that their final destination will not be known. Since White Helmets are the financing arm of HTS, the real question is — will HTS survive? Or will it — like ISIS — disappear into sunset? Turkey will manage it alone. Russia’s presence in patrols just gave HTS a propaganda tool, to portray the ceasefire a Russian-Damascus plot.
It does appear that there is very little HTS can do, and Turkey is labeling it Al-Qaeda, thus it will not help them. The key is — get Idlib free from HTS, so it can join Constitutional convention in January.
You predicted well in your earlier comments on the issue. Congratulations!
Thank you! It is easy to predict if one pays attention to details, without prejudging anyone’s motivations.
It is especially difficult to stay clear from masses of Western information sources that amount to stereotypical matrix of expected behavior.
It is usually in this arena that new information finds a fierce push back. Because established “knowns” are the hardest to ditch.
Turkey may be sensing that the occupation in Northern Syria may become a little warm under Harris-Biden and is pulling back their most vulnerable outposts.
Not to mention, Russia will be eager to finish with Idlib anyway. With Trump gone and a blatantly Russophobic Presidential team in Harris-Biden, there’s not much reason for diplomacy and restraint.
Russia and Turkey have solid set ups in Syria on multiple fronts. Afrin, Jarabulus-A-Bab corridor, border patrols up to Kobane Kurdish area. Same with Idlib. That will not change with Biden.
Since the Russian-Turkish arrangements appear to work OK, Harris-Biden will be sure to want to change that…
Absolutely! Harris-Biden would dearly love to change that. But is this the most pressing problem in the Middle East? Or more pressing then China?
Biden will have to learn what Trump knew – getting bogged down in Middle East will weaken American geo-strategy. I have a distinct feeling that Trump found hard way just how our priorities were mismanaged during Obama’s overconfident era. Today, Biden may be tempted — but the facts council a more careful and conservative course.
There are few events that point to few complicating factors in Syria. One, apparently Idlib militants may have surrendered to Turkey in larger numbers then estimated. Once such “protection” is granted, groups are assigned to Turkish Army positions and leave the area. This allowed Turkey to close already a total of six checkpoints, as Damascus can now move into areas freed up from militants.
Meaning that the belt around HTS is tightening. News that top echelon White Helmets and their families were evacuated from Idlib to Jordan, and then to Germany, is telling that the future of HTS is not bright. Western assets are being withdrawn, and the disposables will have to negotiate way out.
I am not sure what can Biden do in Syria, He cannot go back to Kurdish plan, as Kurds are no longer in control of their territory. Trump’s oil wells are not viable.
Will Biden try to resurrect his ideas of dividing up Iraq? That may prove very difficult now. And Saudi Arabia is suddenly reaching out to Turkey and Qatar.
Turkey opened another base in Iraq, and Russia just signed an agreement with Sudan to open naval facility in Port Sudan.
Will Biden chase minutia all over Middle East — or look at bigger picture? Trump made a good decision to avoid getting sucked deeper in Syria. Resisted likewise temptations in Iraq and Libya.
It will be interesting to watch Biden’s team in action. Will they get back to petty tug of war with Russia or China — or grasp the extent of intelligence failure in understanding the extent of technological parity damage.
And more then ever it hit home how the diminished industrial production in US affected the technological gap. China question is thus a much, much more complicated.
I am quite unsure as to Biden’s course of action. Waste of focus on strategically important issues could be very, very damaging,
The most pressing ‘problem’ in the Middle East is Iran.
Israel and KSA are totally stuck on that, and to powerful elements of the Deep State, Iran is unfinished business. Iran completes a Russia-China Eurasian axis of power, and the DS does love its WWII memes.
Iran will be cautious and diplomatic; the JCPOA buys time if nothing else.
Harris-Biden are team players who know their place in Europe First globalism.
Logically, unfortunately, this means domestic policy – removing domestic enemies of Europe First globalism – not foreign policy, could be their first priority.
Purging America of pesky Americans, conservative AND (if there are any left) real progressives.
Harris-Biden in this, need to be limited to political and judicial manuvors, and never given the pretext to political violence.