Turkish-backed rebels are reporting that Turkey is going to evacuate a second military outpost in northern Syria, with trucks having arrived to begin the process. The base is in Hama, and troops will be relocated to Idlib Province.
Turkey evacuated the first outpost a few weeks ago, arguing it was no longer of military value. In this case, the outpost is outside of their zone of control, and likely inconvenient to keep defending with their control mostly in the far north of Idlib.
Turkey had suggested before that this was the start of moving away from these outposts meant to prop up rebel factions who’ve long lost relevance in the region. Though they don’t want to appear to be backing out of Syria, it’s clear they want to revise that commitment.
Turkey’s rebels retain a small part of northern Idlib, and Aleppo Province. Turkey has threatened recently to reinvade to expel Kurds from northern Syria.
Those groups that have not surrendered to Turkey yet — will be exposed to SAA. Unless HTS can defend them. Who is left with HTS? I guess we will find out soon. The last Western supported outfit — HTS and their funding mechanism White Helmets — will soon have to show their abilities. Just as SAA and Russia are cree to deal with uncommitted in Idlib, Turkey will do the same with Kurds. Initially, Kurds rushed to cut the deal with Damascus to avoid Turkish onslaught. Then, they relaxed and even went back under US tutelage, While YPG is gone — SDF is working with US to keep the secessionist agenda alive. Damascus is not very happy. Turkey back in action.
Hama is of no value against Kurds.
Turks are re-alligning in ways designed only to fight Kurds, instead of fighting Assad too.
I therefore expect to see some Turkish deal with Assad in the works, done at the expense of the Kurds exactly as happened in 1999. Erdogan himself did not make that deal, but he left it in place for a decade.
Erdogan was reluctant to attack Assad, and did so only at the intense and repeated urging of Obama personally talking to him. That has proven to be a serious mistake, like the Libyan adventure of the same provenance. It is not surprising if Erdogan re-evaluates, and goes back to what worked for him for his first decade leading Turkey.