It took a great deal of effort for Russia to bring both sides together for a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. Pulling them apart was much simpler, and by Sunday the ceasefire was in total tatters, with heavy overnight shelling in civilian populated areas.
It was hardly a shock that this happened, as both sides spent virtually the whole ceasefire claiming violations, and Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Bayramov said Saturday he believed it would last just long enough to trade war dead.
It’s not clear that much was even finished by the time the ceasefire had collapsed, with Azerbaijan the first to confirm airstrikes being ordered against ethnic Armenian forces. Armenian forces were accused of shelling Ganja, a city in Azerbaijan, hitting an apartment building.
Armenia initially denied the Ganja attack, but this has been common throughout the conflict, with both sides pounding not only civilian targets, but civilian targets that weren’t even in the warzone in the first place.
Fighting over the last two weeks has killed hundreds, and comments from both sides point to neither side being tired of the conflict yet or looking for a way out. The long-term dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan is far from resolved, and with Turkey continuing to threaten to get involved, what is already an ugly fight could quickly become a very bloody regional war.
Shocking…
This is a conflict between US and Russia. The rest is just a preparation.
Wh is it that nobody is venturing to say anything about Armenia? Like NK holding Azeri territory TWICE or more its size. The expansion erased Azerbaijan border, connecting Armenia with greater NK.
And why is it mentioned extremely shy — that Armenian government since 2018 “velvet”. regime change is American directed, coordinating from bordering Georgia.
And why is it always “both sides” when Armenia broke cease fire hitting Gandja?
And why NOBODY mentioned Jerevan’s political nuclear option — Foreign Minister asking for international recognition of NK as independent state? Presumably with the additional territories it seized from Azerbaijan?
Armenia has for two years worked on reducing Russian “influence” while at the same time pointing out to Russia that as member of CSTO Russia has a duty to defend it,
I would say that calling for secession may be a red line for Russia and entire CSTO. A member, Belarus is supporting Azerbaijan, so is Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.
Why is it that Iran — with 25% Azeri population, is not supporting Azerbaijan? Because it is critical to avoid American label of being “aggressive” and “expansionist” — supporting fellow-Shia nation. Thus Trumpet would be blowing demanding West to contain Iran!
And Russia cannot be perceived to influence Armenia — as soon US would be calling for countering Russian aggression.
If everybody is paralyzed— US forces will soon be on erased borders of Azerbaijan, and then in control o the expanded NK —that is US would be inside Azerbaijan. Threatening vital Russian, Iranian and Chinese interest — Caspian sea.
This is how this looks from the perspective of those states.
This is where Turkey comes in. There are three countries coordinating liberation of Syria.
It is a formal group consisting of Russia, Iran and Turkey. But such trifles are never mentioned in media — because such alliance is not supposed to exist. But it does seem to be at work here as well. Turkey us stepping up. This move was clearly not expected. Strategists just saw opportunity — Russia and Iran paralyzed, Armenia fortified with US support — both military and political. It looked easy to then put pressure in Azerbaijan— and do some regime adjusting.
But not believing in Russian-Iranian-Turkish understanding was a mistake.
The stakes are very high now.
There can be no peace in an occupied territory. The occupation itself is an act of violence. NK is Gaza for Orthodox Christians. The Russian people won’t let Putin abandon another Novorossiya.