When making potentially very high stakes claims about violations of the global nuclear test ban treaty, one would expect a high evidentiary standard. This is not the case with the US, however, which is now accusing China of maybe violating the ban, and which is offering no evidence at all.
The whole speculation from the State Department report is based on unspecified activities at one of China’s nuclear sites, and general distrust of China. This would of course not prove that any tests took place.
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) sets a standard of zero-yield, meaning no nuclear reaction set in place by explosives. Global monitoring means any test with actual yield of any meaningful amount would be detected, making the US claims even weaker.
China is moving toward modernization of its program, which is worrying the US, but they already have a substantial nuclear arsenal, and it isn’t at all clear why the US would imagine they even need to do such testing.
Making such allegations, however, seems to be popular with the US in recent years, however. In 2019, the US similarly claimed Russia was “probably” violating the CTBT, and again offered no evidence.
As with China, Russia’s mastery of the nuclear cycle is established, and has been for decades. The US has yet to come up with a good reason why either nation would even feel the need to risk a treaty violation.
11 thoughts on “US Says China May Have Conducted Banned Nuclear Tests”
… Well, someone wearing red, white and blue is itching to do nuke testing…
Well, what’s digging another deep hole to be stuck in… its only money.
The pattern suggests the CTBT will go the way of the INF treaty, as will New START when it expires next year, and eventually the Non-Proliferation Treaty. But it is the pattern of history that decision-makers seem oblivious to – and the consequences.
Evidence ? Witnesses ? How quaint….
Remember Pompeo said, “We LIE, cheat, and steal.”
Any “nuclear gap” doesn’t anger me at all – what I wonder about is the “national health gap” and the “international admiration gap” – both of which show that China is way ahead of the USA in the protection of their citizens’ lives and also being an positive influence upon other nation’s citizens (China aids others; we try to sell them financial junk or just bomb them).
At present, US has nothing better to do. Perhaps Pomopous decided that US “got” Russia, do it can poke at China. Whatever the thinking — it is not raising to the occasion.
China with four times US population and one seventh of cases. And we are not done. Chinese economy is on the move, and they will redirect falling exports to domestic consumption as well as favorable deals to Shanghai Cooperation Organization members, observers and partners. They can supply ravaged economies from Europe to Africa and Latin America with good deals. Those that produce and supply producers with necessities are kings and king makers.
“China with four times US population and one seventh of cases.”
We don’t have any idea how many cases China has.
We have a SOMEWHAT better idea of how many cases the US has, but it would be a mistake to assume its claims are accurate either.
And the two regimes have different sets of incentives for whether to over- or under-state case numbers.
Wholeheartedly agree with you that no data is accurate, and government and localities, indeed even hospitals and nursing homes are having different rules.
I would just on the basis of information provided by people living in Beijing, Shanghai, Xian, and other cities conclude that outside of Wuhan city and broader Hubei province — the incidence of spread in China was minimal. The containment was drastic, but effective. People living outside the hard hit region applied standard epidemiology measures, but nothing on Wuhan scale. In China, people were not asked to stay home if sick, and not ask for testing if only “moderately ” sick (NYC). Testing was massive and quarantine mandatory for confirmed positives. People did not go around shopping for food and medicine while sick — food was provided for quarantined.
Just on the basis of knowing the difference in the dispersion of contagion one can draw conclusion that — in contrast to China, US has allowed the contagion to spread throughout the country — sparing only the least populous states of Montana and Wyoming.
This has allowed China to reopen its economy gradually.
I have no reason to doubt people – including Americans — that live in cities outside Huabei province. Their cities were spared. Compare that to our cities — NYC, San Francisco. LA and New Orleans. This is what accounts for the difference.
We are talking about epidemics, not politics. If we can just rationally look at things. It is not about vapid patriotism — but about what works and what does not.
It is encouraging that in US stay at home appears to be making a difference. Country wide — there is a slowdown in the number of new confirmed cases. Something to be thankful for.
For as long as politicians can keep their mouths under control. They have not exactly covered themselves in glory — deflecting by blaming China is an adolescent thing to do.
About the only thing the Chinese are doing right is trying to restart their economy.
They just recently adjusted their case numbers upward by just under 1300;
Really, that’s not good.
Washington is full on itching for a confrontation.
Bluffing. Too much noise signifying nothing. Abandoning treaties is not a sign of strength.
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