Aiming to prevent a new war in northern Syria, Russia and Turkey reached a deal on Thursday to resume a ceasefire in the Idlib Province. Turkey and Russia will jointly patrol a buffer zone along the M4 highway, and rebels are to evacuate from the area south of the highway.
Some specifics are to be worked out before the patrols begin on March 15, but any deal that ends with the highway remaining open would be a big win for Syria, and areas north of the highway in Idlib have long been considered low value.
It took Presidents Putin and Erdogan six hours to reach the deal. Turkey was keen to prevent fighting with Russia, and Russia wanted Turkey to stop attacking Syria. Erdogan insists Turkey remains the right to “retaliate with all its strength” against Syria though.
Still, Turkey is backing down from its war posture, likely because other NATO members are not up for a war with Russia over Idlib Province. Turkey does not appear confident in its ability to handle this whole fight by itself.
There a great many things being solved here.
One, the most important internally, Erdogan wins the battle with Turkish “Europeans”, who are pro-EU and pro-NATO, and do not like Turkey drifting Eastward, to Russia, Iran snd China. Those had the following argument — Turkey is ceding too much to Russia in Syria, and as a result, Idlib will be overrun by Syrian forces, and Turkey in addition to already high number of refugees will have to brace for few more million.
So Erdogan went to work. Militants in Idlib are losing, Syrian forces advancing and refugees on the move. First, sealed the border preventing refugees from moving into Turkey. Are they all refugees? Not at all. The number of militants in Idlib has suddenly shrunk to under 20,000. Others are reading the handwriting on the wall, and along with families are trying to get into Turkey.
Then Erdogan asks US to stop bad Assad attacking Idlib —and only Turkey is standing here protecting it! Did not US and collective West ALWAYS scream against Syria attacking Idlib “schools” and “hospitals”? Now that your ally Turkey, is shedding blood for you — you do not want to move a finger? Then Erdogan goes to NATO, Chapter 4 level discussion. Help your ally Turkey, our soldiers are killed protecting Idlib — would you like to put some muscle where your mouth is? No takers there either.
Then Erdogan threatens Europe with release of refugees — Europe never gave help it promised.
But now — EU is suddenly ALL anti-immigrant, telling Turkey loud and clear, refugees are your problem.
All Erdogan opponents, those that chastised him for spurning NATO and US for Russia — cannot say that Erdogan did not try everything to defend Idlib, just as West always wanted.
Now that Western options are non-existent, Erdogan goes to Moscow. And solution looks very similar to joint border patrols in Kurdish areas.
With highway M5 already under Syrian control, and now Russia and Turkey patrolling M4 — key problems for Syria have been solved.
It also appears that assorted Islamic militants are trying to blend into refugee wallpaper, and find a way to resettle. Remaining militants would be fools if they still believed that West will protect them — and that they should remain loyal to Western supported HTS, and their funding arm, White Helmets. With Turkish army reinforcements — militant groups no longer have to fear HTS. Logically, HTS and White Helmets should be packing. But until I hear something— it is speculation.
If all goes well, Idlib local governments will be resurrected. Without fearing militants or their boss HTS, problem will be solved politically, and lead up to Astana format talks. Refugees will not be on the move. But Turkey may need to resettle militants.
Erdogan can go back and say that he tried to get support from US, NATO, and EU. To no avail. And now Russia will support Turkey goal of not generating refugees.
It all depends whether or not HTS goes quietly into the night, or has other aces up their sleeve to jerk Turkey around.
Stay tuned.
HTS is just the latest variation on al Qaeda in Syria. Their people command it. They’ve “merged” with other groups whose fighters are now commanded by al Qaeda in Syria.
It is difficult to keep track, so just saying.
Not too difficult . It is not too hard to see who is HTS Sugar Daddy. Payed through White Helmets OPENLY by US and UK. What do you think, it is some Al-Qaeda outfit from Afghanistan sending munitions in Magic Carpet Airlines? And paying in what currency? And so beloved by West?
US official just made a trip to visit White Helmets, no doubt carrying instructions. This cheap theater is still confusing people.
Nicely analyzed.
Only question remaining is whether the US neocons have aces up their sleeve in terms of trying to provoke some sort of escalation. While I think Erdogan was the main instigator of the recent escalation, I suspect US neocons were egging him on behind the scenes, regardless of the “official” US lack of interest.
It ain’t over until it’s over – and sometimes not even then. Until US neocons and Israel are defanged – and “that ain’t gonna happen” – Syria remains at risk.
Keep in mind that Erdogan’s move was forced — and he had to chose. Damascus move was forced, Russia’s moves have been forced. Their actions were forced by HTS patrons. It is tiresome, really, having to repeat over and over that HTS is Western funded outfit — it always was. From the time it was hoping to hold Aleppo.
It may be Al-Qaeda by name — but whose money and armaments are behind them? HTS is funded by US and UK in plain sight — by ongoing funding of White Helmets. And never ending political support, never ending complaints when Russia bombed another “school” or “hospital”, knowing full well that HTS gave coordinates to UN which were, of course, false.
If we could dispense of the naïveté as for who is who in Idlib, then we can understand each actor much better.
So, HTS with the money and Western support is surrounded by assorted Islamist militants that came from everywhere with their families. Turkey was hoping that in the course of a year all these groups would have been under Turkey’s command, and HTS packing bags to another location of their patrons’ choice.
Did not happen. Just the opposite — attacks on Aleppo and Russian base increased. Hmmmm.
So, forced moves. Russia and Damascus had to go after Idlib, Turkey’s internal politics is red hot — US supporting opposition. Erdogan accused of being duped by Russia, and Turkey will suffer another influx of refugees. Millions. Erdogan’s forced move — go into Idlib and stop Syrian advance. With militants losing badly, and HTS powerless to protect them, with no Western intervention — militants had only Turkey to believe.
Erdogan went through every motion. Ask US to intervene, asked NATO to intervene, asked Europe to share burden of refugees. No, no, no. Enough to make impression on public opinion and to shut up pro-NATO opposition. Then deal with Russia. The reason West could NOT help Turkey is because they want to oust Erdogan — not elevate him by showing their blessings.
So — the real story is, now that militants owe their survival to Turkey, will they run back to HTS? Do they feel betrayed? By whom?
Militants are diminished by all this. Russian and Turkish patrols will establish rules. Can US/UK manage to revive HTS enough to stir up militants and disobey Turkey?
Let us see. If all goes well, it will be a repetition of YPG defanging.
Cautiously, very cautiously optimistic.