Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi may still believe that the use of anti-terrorism special forces against civilian protesters will keep them from removing him from power, but a political uprising is growing and could rapidly unseat him.
Influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has been calling for other groups to join him in demanding Abdul Mahdi either come through on promised reforms or resign, saying openly he intends to remove the PM from power if he doesn’t deliver.
Important militia leader and political figure Hadi al-Amiri announced on Tuesday that he intends to work with Sadr, and, combined, those two are in a position to readily impose their will, and collapse the existing coalition government.
Of Iraq’s current 189-seat coalition, Sadr’s Alliance Toward Reform controls 54 seats, and Amiri’s Conquest Alliance has another 48. There is simply no way to replace them if they both withdraw, and Abdul Mahdi was always meant to be a “compromise” candidate, who has little power of his own to maintain control without the strong Shi’ite majority.
Trump will soon brag about “taking out” Moqtada.
The importance to the Americans of the current government was its relative independence from Iran and friendship with the US, compared to all the other possibilities. It was very far from perfect or complete on either count, but still better than the alternatives. Sadr in particular has been hated by the Americans for two decades, and hid inside Iran for much of the fighting.
With US drones flying around looking for you, I think “hid inside Iran” is the smart thing to do.
Ain’t democracy great…as long as the “right guys” come to power…
Moqtada is Iraq’s last action hero. He and Abdullah Ocalan may be the regions best hope for a truly Middle Eastern school of democracy.