The north Syria ceasefire brokered between the US and Turkey came into
effect on Friday, and despite claims of violations, and a few Turkish
airstrikes, fighting is down substantially, and the Kurds are moving out of the “safe zone.”
By any measure that means the ceasefire, if not working perfectly, is
working relatively well, considering how much skepticism there was. That
said, it’s only a five day deal, and there are already signs it is
under pressure.
Turkey’s airstrikes are pressure, to be sure, but not shocking given the Erdogan government’s position on Kurds. The big problem, however, is that Turkey and the Kurds can’t seem to agree what the truce deal actually says.
The Kurds are arguing that the ceasefire is limited to a 120 km stretch
of the safe zone from Tal Abyad to Ras al-Ayn, the area Turkey was
directly attacking at the time. Turkey says it covers the entire 444 km
stretch of border the Kurds controlled before the Turkish invasion
began.
The deal is a bit vague on that, something Syrian officials expressed
concern about. This is particularly important as the Kurdish forces
already ceded the western-most part of this territory, including Kobane
and Manbij, to the Assad government to defend.
Since neither the US or Turkey has anything to say about what the Syrian
government does, it’s impractical to think that a bilateral deal would
oblige Syria to surrender that territory. The Kurds have said they’ll
respect the deal, but only their understanding of it.
The US likely doesn’t care what happens in Syria-controlled Syria,
particularly if Turkey chooses to invade them and prop up rebels in that
area. It is with this view that the US is making no effort to clarify
what they thought the deal actually meant.
Exactly. The extent of deal is really of no interest to US. US did what can be done to provide YPG fighters with a chance to save lives. Turkey and Syria have a total commonality of interests. Syria does not want to become YPG protector, manning the barricades for them, protecting their continued rule in Kobane. Thus, Turkey’s threat is very helpful.
But the problem will work out naturally — unless Kurds have other plans. Once Syrian Army comes in, ALL towns, villages and hamlets occupied by SDF aka YPG that are Syrian Arabs and Turkmen majority — will have Syrian administration. For example, YPG cannot insist on administering Manbij where Kurds are minority, and there was a great deal of ethnic cleansing committed during YPG rule. Syria should likewise have no problem taking over all such non-Kurdish places. YPG will disappear from there. If not — Syria may be forced to oust them — or let Turkey be the bad guy.
The only issue is Kobane. In war, population supports their fighters, right or wrong. So it will be in Kobane with YPG. Being the only Kurdish majority town, Syria will have to thread carefully there. It is within the Turkey’s range — but Turkey will not touch it — if Syria and Russia have a deal with YPG.
Turkey will have to take care if the border all the way up to Iraqi border — where PKK took roots in Iraq.
But the point is – Kurds cannot continue to control the border area — as it is NOT Kurdish majority. I do not think Syria will have a bit of problem — Syria has no manpower for that. It has to deal with Idlib and still another minor pocket in the South. Turkey is in better position to deal with border areas and deal with refugee resettlement. Larger places away from the birder Syria will take control off.
Some very interesting points you make, Bianca. Do you have sources that you can refer to?
“The north Syria ceasefire brokered between the US and Turkey…..” I did not realize that Turkey and US were firing at each other. Who started the firing Erdogan or Trump?
The mess of Syria reminds me of a work by Escher.
Escher had predictable patterns…more like the bottom of a parakeet cage.
Turkey is setting up a second Idlib and the US is aiding and abetting this effort.
Crucial question that is not asked of the Turks, or their Arab (Al Queda) proxies, or of the administration that green-lit their move into this “safe zone”- when they say, “the zone will be empty of Kurds”, everyone seems to assume that means, “armed Kurds.” But do they actually mean, Kurds? The civilian population?
If so, how can the world possibly stand by and watch as three million Kurds are pushed into an empty desert? Stand by as the Turkish pet ISIS persuades the population to leave, through artillery fire and outright murder?
Is the Turkish “save zone” a depopulated zone?
Someone needs to ask that question.
Erdogan told that he wants to expell Kurds in order to give the territory to Arabs …
Looks like am Al Qaeda homeland is being established.