In comments on Friday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Turkey intends to establish a dozen “observation posts” across the north Syria safe zone. He reiterated that this would span 300 miles across northeast Syria.
These comments are just the latest indication that Turkey intends not just to chase the Kurds out of northeastern Syria, but are envisioning staying there. US officials have confirmed that they view Turkey as primarily in charge of this safe zone.
The 12 posts will effectively be Turkish bases established across the safe zone to make sure that one one enters their vast new territory, other than Turkish-backed rebel fighters of course, to threaten control of the area.
This broad span of Turkish-controlled territory is intended to go 30 km into Syria, though Erdogan has since expanded it to 32 km in parts, so as to try to kick the Kurds out of some other areas. It is possible that the offensive will continue beyond that, deeper into Kurdish-held territory.
This is mot too complicated. It is a long ago developed plan to eliminate YPG held villages and towns that are Arab and Turkmen majority population. This would also make Kurds flee, as they will not want to stay, Especially as some of them — bolstered by US checkpoints — believed in long term US presence, and forced many Arabs deemed not loyal, flee. That was a way to get houses, businesses.
In Aftin, where no American troops came as there was no ISIS there — YPG still did not allow other Syrians to travel to Government controlled area, and needed YPG written permission to come back. Often not granted, forcing people to sell their homes, land and businesses for whatever they could get. Afrin made riches smuggling weapons and supplies to Islamist militants. The weapons came from various sources, including US — and the center of all operations was towns Ras Al-Ayn and Tel Abyad and the area between them. Kurds in Turkey were smuggling it along the border to various points, lately to Idlib. Russia and Syria offered deals in order to end this private fiefdom, but YPG refused. That is when Turkey occupied Afrin, secured border and kicked out YPG. With Turkey now controlling the area, freedom of movement to Syrians has been restored.
In areas Turkey is focused on — refugees will return and assistance provided. But other questions remain..
When it comes to other areas, Turkey is going to see. If YPG pays only lip service to Syria, and YPG remains entrenched — Turkey will occupy using Afrin model. This has been the problem for ever. Kurds would play nice when in trouble, then resume military operations counting on foreign sponsors. And with Turkish Kurds still armed — it would be no problem with supplies.
I suspect that Kurds today possess large stashes of weapons, both in Syria snd Turkey. US had plenty of time to arm then, and even had special ops imbedded. Pictures were even in our press.
What Turkey is signaling — YPG better be disabled as soon as possible — otherwise, it will come in to root them out. This continued threat is a necessity unfortunately. If Syrian troops leave any room for YPG entrench, it will have pickets of “opposition” again. And not be able to move on with political process as Kurds would demand more to agree. And restart military operations anytime a new foreign paying client comes to underwrite new hot spot.