Fighting in Syria remains centered on Ras al-Ayn, where Kurdish forces continue to try to defend the town despite a major invasion by Turkish forces and Turkish-backed rebels.
Though for the most part the predicted “all out war” hasn’t come to pass, efforts to talk Turkey down from its invasion aren’t working either. President Erdogan ruled out any ceasefire with the Kurds, insisting the only option was for all the Kurds to disarm and flee from the area Turkey now claims.
Moreover, having previously insisted that he didn’t have any problem as such with the Syrian military entering Manbij, a city in Syria’s Aleppo Province, Erdogan’s spokesman was now declaring it a “dirty deal” by which they ended up there.
Manbij was controlled by the Kurds by way of a US-backed offensive against ISIS. Last weekend, the Kurds made a deal with the Syrian government to cede Manbij and Kobane. This was intended to put Syrian Army forces in defense of the area, while Kurdish fighters defend further east.
The Erdogan government is largely signaling its disinterest in negotiation, saying they intend to push on with the invasion “with or without world support.” In public statements, they continue to present the offensive as an anti-ISIS operation, though Erdogan does at times seem to concede the point that he’s attacking the Kurds.
That’s not really an arguable point in the first place, as ISIS largely doesn’t exist anymore, particularly not in the area being invaded. Turkey, on the other hand, has a long-standing problem with the Kurds, and has been threatening an offensive in this area specifically to expel Kurds from the border area.
Run, Kurd, run! Yer pants on fire. Go, Team Turkey!.
Beginning in early 2019 the Turkish economy began to sag and the Turkish lira dropped significantly against the dollar. Worse developments were halted in mid-summer when the Chine government promised a $ 3 billion injection into the Turkish economy and advanced $ 1 billion already. Did that injection of funds make his invasion of Syria financially easier? After all, wars are expensive as we know all too well.
We hope so, because if that ends our involvement, thank you China.
The whole operation is coordinated tightly with Russia and Damascus , so it sounds mighty funny when we talk about them as if we live in Muddle Ages, and fiefdoms are going at each other, with tricks up their sleeves.
American attempt to create a greater Kurdish area under the guise of ISIS fighting, and under the banner of fictional SDF, presumably mixed Kurdish-Arab force. Even though Mosul fell in fall of 2016, and Raqqa (caliphate capital), the fight with ISIS continued till early 2017. When Trump declared war in ISIS, there was very little — if any — ISIS left.
Even though Trump very wisely tried to pull out then, the collective neocon hysteria prevented pull out. Resurgence of ISIS is not possible as there are NO MORE deep pockets underwriters among usual suspects.
But Kurds — who in Turkey wage shamelessly the armed secessionism — have received from Washington a foothold in Syria. In Kobane, founded Parliament, have (State Department written) Constitution, a female President.
Towns on the border (Ras Al Ayn and Tel Abyad) were occupied by Kurds. They expelled most Arab population (now in Turkey) and used towns and area in-between for all the operations since 2011. Throughout the area — all smuggling was conducted. And this is not some special knowledge – all in news all the time. Smuggling ISIS oil openly using highway that runs parallel to border, the same highway Turkey is disrupting today. Arms AND Kurd fighters coming from PKK , and PKK was smuggling it from Iraq. Arms were smuggled by PKK along the border to arm Saudi sponsored Islamic fighters in Syria. From the same area, US supported former Free Syrian Army was supplied using PKK smuggling to various Syrian “opposition”. What is today being DELIBERATELY conflated — Turkey’s territory being used for arming Islamists is being equated with TURKEY, specifically Erdogan — doing it. And in fact, from the beginning US, Saudi Arabia and Kurds worked together to arm Islamist groups via the PKK conveyer belt along Turkish Syrian border.
And (check Saudi sources), Turkey and Qatar were funding their militants that fought AGAINST (US-Saudi) Islamic groups.
Turkey, Syria and Lebanon just before the Syrian crisis, established a visa free regime. And all three had visa free regime with Russia.
When Saudis and US started the process of training and arming groups — Turkey saw the role given by US in facilitating the process, and arming Kurds in Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Handwriting was on the wall — Kurdish entity on both sides of border — essentially cutting off Turkey in Anatolia without access to Muddle East, unless Kurds allow.
This is when Turkey took anti-Assad stance, seeing that Assad was not helped by anyone, and Turkey needed to AT the Syria table, not IN the table being carved up.
2014 ISIS was announced, a joint project of Saudi then Interior Minister leading a special group on Syria. Being fully organized (around a core armed Sunni group set up by Petraeus to fight “Al-Qaeda, Sunni Awakening), it had all the intelligence in Iraqi army positions, and quickly i overwhelmed them, taking Mosul, then Raqqa.
By September 2015, Russia enters Syria. That opens possibilities for Turkey.
But Erdogan was politically under enormous pressure by neocon media. Accused of smuggling oil from ISIS — even though Kurds smuggled and resold to Israel. By the end if the year, he was at the mercy if Davutoglu’s Government — that in its FIRST day shot down Russian plane.
In April 2015, the key architect of Islamic groups
in Syria and ISIS — was with a lots of pressure kn Saudis, brought in as Crown Prince, by ousting the legitimate one after inly two months. From the beginning – he was acting as the Prime Minister without consulting King , who was declared to be senile and with Alzheimers disease. It turned out it was a lie spread by our neocon media in order to lobby Allegiance Council in removing King early. To prevent all functions falling into MBN hands, King appointed his son, MBS to position if Minister of Defense and head of Aramco. In that role, he could keep King in the loop — but was barred from making decisions.
This development in Saudi Arabia was one of the reasons for Russia to get in. The aim of creating Sunni Caliphate from parts of Syria and Iraq, and giving Kurds their states bordering Turkey -/ started to falter as soon as Russia intervened. Russia, Iran and Iraq established intelligence sharing center in Baghdad, and Iraqi forces had no more losses to ISIS.
By 2016, Erdogan was back in power after failed coup. and relationship with Russia moved into partnership. By the end if the year, in spite of all Western efforts to “internationalize” Mosul, and preserve Sunni autonomy, Baghdad with its ground forces liberated Mosul and soon took care of Kurdish areas militarily.
With Caliphate idea crumbling, and US moving focus into SDF and anti-ISIS, the entire ISIS idea became the focus of American stay jn Iraq and Syria.
So by June 2017, MBN was removed from power and all functions in the Kingdom, and MBS took over.
From day one, everything was attributed to new head of government — as if MBN never ruled. But the reason for fury was MBS visits to Russia and even presumably demented King led a 2,000 strong business delegation to Moscow.
This finale is still some way to go. Turkey will harp on YPG — until its loss from power. But for now, they are Syrian insurance policy — US will not bomb Syrian Army entering Raqqa while accompanied by SDF or YOG.
Tomorrow is another day.