Following a weekend deal with the Kurdish YPG to assume defensive responsibility for the cities of Manbij and Kobane, the Syrian Army has rushed northward into the area, setting up defensive positions for a pending Turkish invasion.
The ability of the Syrian government to get into the area was hindered by US military forces who are nominally withdrawing from the area. Reports are that the US launched multiple airstrikes against pro-government forces in the area.
Perhaps the most problematic aspect of the US meddling in Syria’s defense of Syria is that US ground troops remain in control of Qarakozaq bridge, which is on the highway between Manbij and Kobane. This means Syrian forces cannot directly go back and forth between the two cities they’ve agreed to defend.
That may just be temporary, as US forces aren’t meant to be sticking around long in that area, but that they’re openly stalling Syrian deployments is likely to further anger the Kurds, and give the impression that the US is not only ‘getting out of the way’ for Turkey’s conquest of the area, but openly undermining any attempt to resist the Turks.
So far, Turkey’s fighting in Syria is further east, where they are contesting border towns being defended by the Kurdish SDF. These towns are Arab majority, and Turkey-backed rebels are eager to seize them as part of establishing a new rebel stronghold in Syria.
There is NO plan to stop Turkey. That is not objective, YPG lies a lot and media gobbles it up.
Deals are under way, but YPG is not getting protection.
Manbij is Arab town — and YPG is holding it as a bait to Damascus. But in return they would like Syria to protect Kobane against Turkey’s advance.
At stake is — YPG remaining in power in Kobane. Turkey wants them out of power and their opposition to rule. That is already the case in Afrin, another Kurdish enclave.
I am sure that neither Syria nor Russia want YPG to remain in power. For as long as they remain in power, US and the West will pretend that YPG represents entire Kurdish population of Syria. This is ALREADY not true — but unless Kurds in Kobane ruse against them, US has s mouthpiece.
Thus — in the name of “countering” Turkey, Syrian Army is in the move to make YPG give up control of key Arab populated towns.
The question is – what will happen in Kobane.
YPG has always tried to barter with Russia and Syrian army.
But they have GROSSLY overplayed their hand. And Syria is not in the mood any more.
For as long as Turkey was put off from clearing its border from YPG occupiers — they went along with US, and made fools of both Russia and Syria. Now, facing the imminent defeat, trying same tricks again.
Syria will take what is ripe for taking — but will not be YPG protector.
Some face saving device for US will be needed should YPG fall from power in Kobane.
Because, once this happens, any YPG detachments in the South will not represent anyone but themselves.
I am wondering if Raqqa is part of the deal. It should be — considering how much Kurds tried to prevent refugees from coming back home. Turkey would invest kn reconstruction.
Incidentally both UAE and Bahrain have reopened Embassies in Damascus for that reason. The reconstruction game will be on — without Europeans or Americans. All Eurasian.
Now, more than ever since SAA is back in there and Arabs and Assyrians ethnically cleansed by the Kurds can go back home and reclaim their properties, the name of the town is, as always, Ayn al Arab, not “kobane”.
Look at Manbij. Ethnic cleansing was massive there after YPG took over from ISIS.
Now, Syrian Army is in full control. YPG if they have any brains would turn over the entire region to Syrian Army to prevent vigilante property reclaiming — something that would have happened if Turkey let its militia in.
Kobane is a special case. There is. Kurdish majority living there. Kurdish attempt to form a state is there in the form of Parliament and Constitution. YPG is supported there, but there are other parties. It would be wise for YPG to turn it over for protection — but it would lose all legitimacy.
Thus it may be better for Kobane to remain surrounded but not entered -/ until YPG turns over many other towns and villages in Euphrates valley even Deir Azzor. Because if Kurds are giving them up — who is US going to protect any more.
Will be interesting.
I just do not get why is it that many people are so convinced of Kurds being saints — and others cleansing them. When in reality, it has been opposite for a while now.
The YPG Kurds aren’t even Syrian, they’re part of the rebellious Kurds in Turkey itself .. They fled Turkey and set up shop in Syria, but they’re not part of the deal Assad had made with Syrian Kurds earlier. The YPG has no choice but to leave the area .. They’ve never been welcomed by the residents, and Syrian Kurds don’t want them either.
“That may just be temporary, as US forces aren’t meant to be sticking around long in that area, but that they’re openly stalling Syrian deployments is likely to further anger the Kurds, and give the impression that the US is not only ‘getting out of the way’ for Turkey’s conquest of the area, but openly undermining any attempt to resist the Turks.”
That’s exactly what’s going down. The SA are trying to prevent a genocide and America is sabotaging them. True colors, too bright and garish to ignore.
The NYT this morning reported that Russian troops are patrolling areas in northern Syria that were abandoned by US troops. They are coordinating with Turkish forces. If that’s true, Syrian troops will soon take their place and Syria will again control the oil-producing regions east of the Euphrates. The Kurds can go along with this or go f-ck themselves.
I am not sure which areas of Northern Syria.
The first place Turkey hit was a town close to Iraqi border — Hassakah. In that town, oddly enough, there was a contingent of Syrian Army. YPG tried to oust them once, but a deal was struck in their resupply. I always thought that the reason may be the lack of YPG popularity in that region, and they liked the idea of Syrian base there.
Immediately after Turkish attack — there was silence. It is very possible that YPG fled, and locals invited Syrian base soldiers to take overvsecurity. It would not be surprising that Russia sent reinforcements.
Meanwhile, in the Democratic debates. WSJ’s list of “Least talked about topics” DOESN’T EVEN INCLUDE foreign wars. Media make sure to keep the wars for Israel invisible, removed from the debate.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-debates-what-the-presidential-candidates-are-and-arent-saying-11571112000
Team Russia should smack down US invaders in Syria.
You know that Turkey is much better candidate for open challenge to its NATO member. Syrian forces must be close by to scoop control from fleeing YPG.
What will it take for folks to get it — Turkey, Russia and Syria are working in tight coordination.
YPG has fled Manbij and SYRIAN FORCES ARE IN FULL CONTROL IF THE TOWN. This is what Turkey wanted in the first place,
The huge advantage of Syrian Army taking the city is the prevention of any revenge killings. Such instances happened in Ras Al Ayn. Turkish militia consists of people who had fled the towns when YPG took over, and Kurds took properties.
In Manbij the ethnic cleansing of Arabs and Turkmen was severe. Army will prevent vigilante justice and taking properties back by force.
I am wondering if Raqqa would folllow.
Really? Syrian Army to take responsibility for security of Manbij and Kobane ON BEHALF OF YPG? No such deal. YPG no longer controls Manbij. Turkey does not want to enter places that YPG turns over to Syrian government.
There is no competition here!
The area along border — Syria will happily turn over to Turkey to dismantle secessionists infrastructure in both sides of border. Turkey’s plans for refugee return requires security from armed PKK and YPG militias.
Turkey is not establishing rebel stronghold in the area. All groups that accepted to be part if Turkey’s Syrian militia NO LONGER have their independence , their leadership or uniforms. They will not have any say in refugee resettlement.
Groups that were moonlighting for Idlib — smuggling arms and supplies, were caught and destroyed by Syrian Army and Russia in a crackdown in smuggling. Turkey had a zero problem with that.
And Turkey was right about one thing — why waste political energy with Western live for Idlib when you can waste it in something much more productive. Now, as Turkey is taking the lightening and thunder from the West, Syrian Army can start swooping town and villages from YPG.
The notion that Syria us cutting deal with YPG is not true. Taking a majority Arab town of Manbij in no way gives YPG any say any more in the affairs of the city.
If Syria takes over Kobane — what do you think it will do there?
A —
protecting it in behalf of YPG and the Parliament of Rojava?
B —
returning city under Syrian control and reestablishing territorial integrity.
I bet that Turkey and Syria agree on this point wholeheartedly.
Exactly!!
Jason’s end game analysis is way off.
Things are moving pretty fast.
In Manbij there was a US base not just YPG. Now abandoned.
In UN — Russia and China block a resolution demanding Turkey halt Syria incursion.
In Aden, in a deal — Saudi Arabia takes over port and airport. A deal Saudis made with secessionists of Mahra, Sawbha and Hadramuth? If their secession is granted, that would pace resolution on North.