President Trump announced on Sunday that the US is “locked and loaded” and ready to respond to the weekend attack on Saudi oil refineries, but is waiting on the Saudis to determine who is to blame. He also suggested he was willing for military action.
On Saturday, drones attacked and caused fires at a pair of Saudi oil refineries. The fires are believed to be going to cause a decline in oil production, though the Saudis expressed hope at starting to restore service by Monday.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was eager to blame Iran for the attack, and even though Iran has already denied any involvement, Sen. Lindsey Graham is urging Trump to just start attacking Iranian oil refineries immediately.
Trump’s suggestion that he’s going to let the Saudis decide who is to blame almost certainly is going to end with Iran being blamed too, even though evidence points to Yemen’s Houthis. The Saudis clearly aren’t going to pass up a chance to egg on the US to go after Iran.
It likely being a strike by the Houthis, however, who are taking credit for it, raises potential problems for the Saudis. The Saudi War in Yemen is going extremely poorly, and the ability of the Houthis of all people to launch drone attacks into key Saudi sites without air defense stopping them suggests this war could quickly get very costly.
These questions about the Saudi lack of air defense are particularly pointed because Saudi Arabia is the third largest military spender on the planet, behind only the US and China. With so much US-made military gear, the Saudis must surely be troubled by their inability to defend vital sites from what are likely trivially low-cost drones.
With expectations that the attacks might have something to do with the price of oil, Trump likely feels obliged to do something other than Tweet “PLENTY OF OIL!” His comments, however, risk committing him to moving against whoever the Saudis choose to blame, which is always going to be Iran.
Saudi Arabia’s internal politics will decide. I would be shocked if Saudis opt for war with Iran. They will be the biggest losers. US will let Iran cause as much damage to Saudis, and as a friend roll in to occupy Saudi Arabia that for all practical purposes has no armed forces.
It would be crazy to assume that Iran will not contact Saudi Arabia via their Baghdad embassies. That channel was open a while ago, eliminating electronic communication.
But Saudi Arabia has shown itself to be highly vulnerable. US is hinting that Iran used missiles, which is absurd — any missile defense would have identified, if not stopped. And drones flying this long distance — from any direction, SHOULD have been spotted. Unless radars have been disabled.
Putin has condemned the attack, but interestingly added that it needs to be determined if drones are responsible. Hinting essentially at sabotage. Russia has a very detailed sets of radars covering the area, and could tell if anything has bern in the air.
Pressure on Saudi Arabia is deadly. Hope they do not make mistakes.
Two things happening in next two days.
Monday, presidents of Iran, Russia and Turkey are meeting in Turkey
Tuesday, Israeli elections.
Right analysis, Zionist Israel’s Puppy; Coward President Trump can’t dare challenge Deep State, he knows what happened with A Great Brave President John F. Kennedy.
“Saudi Arabia that for all practical purposes has no armed forces”
Well, except for the fact that they’re the third largest military spender in the world and have larger armed forces than France, Germany, Italy, Israel, Ukraine …
Having an armed force does not guarantee that your commanders know how to use it.
WWII: the “Dyle-Breda” strategy.
As an example see US 18 years in Afghanistan.
Yes, they spend a lot. A lot. They do not have large armed forces. Many of their soldiers are non-Saudis on contract. This includes about 100,000 Pakistanis, that signed up for internal security only, not to participate in wars. The country is not set up to fight any wars. It imports just about anything, and exports oil. Oil will be casualty of war, affecting more China and Asia, not US at all.
Judging from the inability to mount any kind of air defense, it dies nit bide well for country with no geographic features aiding in defense, and with practically no farming to meet the needs of cities.
Saudi Arabia can only count on US to protect it. And protect it will. From anything Saudis own. There is zero reason for Iran to attack Saudi Arabia, for all Saudi big mouth bellicosity. Bringing war to region will destroy the region. Only utter fools would want that. But then, it is our habit to think Arabs are fools, and can be led into self destruction. And if they drag their feet — a few fiery incentives can be provided.
“They do not have large armed forces.”
Larger than France, Germany, or Italy. Larger than about 175 of the world’s 190-odd states.
And they couldn’t even whup the Hooths… Talk about “odd states@!
That said, when I had occasion to train some members of their armed forces, I was not impressed. These were rich kids from their naval academy who had been impressed into a notional “Saudi Marine Corps” after Saddam invaded Kuwait. They were not well-prepared as even basic infantry troops, and their NCOs didn’t seem to be much better. But that’s anecdotal and dated information.
Read Colonel Pat Lang’s blog. He’s worked with the Houthis and the Saudis. He has nothing but respect for the Houthis as fighters. He’s not at all surprised – and rather pleased – that they’ve been kicking the Saudis butts on the ground.
All those KSA fighter planes are useless without Pakistani personnel flying them.
The Saudis only have money–and they’ve already forgotten how to even ride camels
Should not Yemen be allowed to attack Saudi Arabia . How else can Yemen get Saudi Arabia to maybe think about stopping the blockade and bombing of Yemen . What goes around comes around . For sure Saudi Arabia deserves to be attacked for all the harm they have caused in Yemen .
This threat to attack Iran probably has more to do with appeasing politicians than it does reality. So let me get this straight…the Houthis wreck the KSA…the KSA loses 50% production in one strike. Long lead time on repair and replacement of what was destroyed and they find out, oh by the way, we have no defenses against this. The KSA fires its longtime technocrat oil minister and replaces him with a Saudi family member who is much less resistant to the idea of an Aramco IPO. Within two weeks this strike happens. Oil prices go up for as long as it takes the Saudis to repair and as long as the Houthis decide not to strike again it should give them at least 6 months of higher prices. If the Houthis strike a key facility again and do damage like they have been, it’s going to extend that indefinitely.
Then as a result of this attack, the US claims it wants to attack Iran. It only makes sense if you’re trying to help Netanyahoo win his election this week. Attacking Iran would shut the rest of not only KSA production down, it would shut the entire region down. Right before elections, a US president cannot afford a huge spike in gas prices that would directly threaten the livelihood of the Petro-Dollar. Think about it, what need would there be for the Petro-Dollar when the major suppliers would be in non-dollar accepting countries?
It would be like shooting off their own nose to spite their face and they know it. This can’t be anything more than empty barking to appease MBS and boost Nutface. All that has to happen to make them poop their pants and come to the table is one more major Houthi attack on the oil infrastructure.
Those chanting sandal wearers in their traditional Yemeni outfits (plus a suit jacket) have hit the empire in its very heart. Expect a major spasm…
Thanks for a very honest, informative analysis.
Allahu Akbar! My the Creator put an end to the “royals” of the KSA.
President Trump wants to win 2020 election and also stay alive unlike President Kennedy who Challenged and was Dealt With Properly by American BOSS.
How conveeenient…. . This so-called “attack” is a Lie. Just like Tonkin, just like the Kuwaiti Incubator Babies, just like Saddam’s WMDs, just like 9/11. And the Deep State’s boy Trump is just the one to pull it off. i wonder when we’ill get a drone attack in Houston. That’d REALLY pump up the price of oil, eh?
My first thought after reading comments on Lang’s blog was – what happens when such attacks are done against US assets in the region – or even inside the continental US?
The only issue with doing them inside the US is how to get the components for the devices into the country – but with the large borders we have, that shouldn’t be that difficult. The Obama administration once had to admit that three Stinger missiles were smuggled into the New York area from Canada back when TWA Flight 900 was shot down.
So you smuggle in some drone air frames divided up so they don’t look like what they are inside some other mechanical parts. The electronic components can be labeled as anything. The explosives get disguised as or manufactured from fertilizer or other chemicals.
Then you assemble them in some forest somewhere within a hundred miles of your target – and launch them. These Houthi drones have a range of a couple hundred miles and can be guided with GPS accuracy of thirty feet.
Imagine ten such drones hitting a critical US infrastructure target either inside or outside the US.
Someone is undoubtedly imagining that as we read this. This is the near future of urban guerrilla warfare.
“following drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities the administration has blamed on Iran. American forces are “locked and loaded,” Trump tweeted, and “waiting to hear from the Kingdom”.
I guess “the Kingdom” now determines when we go to war. Trump is deranged. That’s the real meaning of TDS, a description of his mental condition.
As I’ve said before, our only hope is that we even make it to January 21, 2021. That is not a given. Donald Trump is insane.
So much doesn’t make sense. Hypothetically speaking, let’s say that Iran admits they attacked Saudi Arabia. Why should that provoke a US Military response? Does anybody believe that we would come to the aid of Iran if the Saudi’s attacked them? Does anybody care that Congress has told Trump that he does not have authorization to attack Iran without fresh Congressional authorization?
I hear talk that it was an Iranian made rocket that struck the oil facility. So what? I also hear talk that it was an American made bomb that hit a hospital in Yemen last March. The only solid evidence that we have is the claim by the people who fired the rocket that they had indeed fired the rocket.
I may be full of it here. But this could actually be a very good thing for Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela too. If oil prices rise sufficiently, all 3 of these governments might enjoy a respite from declining revenues caused by the sudden increase in US oil production over the past decade. (Or we could do something stupid, start an all out war in the region, and suffer a global oil shortage of a magnitude not seen since the 1970’s.)
Draft dodgers really need to curb their gung-ho attitude. They’ve already proved they don’t have the ‘nads. Like Dubya Bush, he didn’t just dodge the draft he dodged the dodge. Called himself “the War president”. Yeah, he dodged one war, started two, never put himself in harm’s way. Draft dodgers, you really need to stfu.
I support and admire both draft dodgers and draft resisters — until they turn around later and start advocating for sending other people to do the killing and dying they weren’t willing to do themselves.
As for Dubya, yes, he dodged the draft, but he didn’t dodge the dodge — he deserted the dodge.
The difference between resistor and dodger…..dodger doesn’t feel like joining the war, resistor says “screw you and your war”. If the dodgers had resisted, compelling the state to do something about them, the war likely ends sooner. The only resistor I can think of in politics was Tom Hayden. Plenty of dodgers.
Hayden was a Zionist.
No, find “I was an Israeli Dupe” written by Hayden. Not on antiwar.com anymore, for some reason. Huffington post likely. Have to think about why it is gone from antiwar archives.
It’s not “gone” from the Antiwar.com archives because it was never “in” the Antiwar.com archives. However, here’s a piece ABOUT it which was, and still is, in the Antiwar.com archives.
Correct…maybe “never present” is more apt.
Being in the frontlines during war could be a better learning experience than being a natural born citizen .
The only thing that is locked with no load is Trump’s brain.
Blowing up more Gulf oil refineries is not going to improve or protect the world oil supply.
Wasn’t I just reading elsewhere on this site that the F-35 can’t blow up climate disruption? Maybe it can after all.
Why doesn’t Saudi Arabia deal with the attacker themselves? Why does the US have to get involved in everything? I hope Trump doesn’t start bombing Iran and satisfy all the war pigs trying to get us in another war.
Believe me, LibertyLoonie, DJT has no intention of attacking Iran .. just as he had had no intention of attacking N. Korea in 2017. All of his threats were nothing but bombast .. The same goes with his “threats” against Iran today. He’s been talking with Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president, behind the scenes for some time; and just very recently, he talked about lifting sanctions against Iran. If anyone’s to blame for the attack on the Saudi oil fields, it’s either an inside job or a Mossad False Flag.
Remember, there’s an election coming up very soon in Israel, and Bibzy Nutty&Yahoo wants to stay in power by defeating his arch rival, Benny Gantz.
I hope you are correct. Trump does a lot of posturing and trash talking
Trump does nothing without extreme self-promotion. There is no way that he’s having secret talks with anyone – he’d have to Tweet some garbage out. “Very Productive day of Talks with Iran – far better than Obama or Crooked ever accomplished with their Failed policies!”
“DJT has no intention of attacking Iran .. just as he had had no intention of attacking N. Korea in 2017.”
The two situations are totally different. North Korea has the capability – even without nukes – of causing fifty thousand US casualties in the first ninety days of a war with the US. I’m sure Trump was informed by the Pentagon of those war games outcomes. And even Trump isn’t that stupid, to risk that level of casualties in his first year in office.
Iran can’t produce that kind of “hot war” with that many US casualties in that time frame – as long as the US doesn’t try a ground invasion as its first act.
And North Korea isn’t on Israel’s radar, like Iran is.
As for an inside job or Mossad, the Houthis are apparently quite capable of this level of attack.
“President Trump announced on Sunday that the US is “locked and loaded” and ready to respond to the weekend attack on Saudi oil refineries, but is waiting on the Saudis to determine who is to blame.”
So, w/o knowing who is to blame, he’s locked and loaded for action? Either this is just posturing (very very likely) or last night’s cheeseburgers are causing a badly upset stomach … or perhaps both.
It’s more bloviating from Trump. He knows a war with Iran dooms his second term prospects.
Could the attack on the Saudi oil wells be a “False Flag” operation?
Remember the Lavon Affair? It would not be the first time this has been done.
Guess who would benefit in an up coming election? Pompeo to the rescue.
The danger is other parties or circumstances might bring the US to a position where its core interests are at stake, leaving no alternative but war. Washington needs to avoid such a catastrophe, if it is not already too late, and heed the warning of history.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
Just read an update, and as usual, Trump backwaters. Marc Short, the vice president’s chief of staff, told reporters Monday morning that the President’s claim the US is “locked and loaded” may not refer to military action. “I
think that locked and loaded is a broad term and talks about the
realities that we’re all far safer and more secure domestically from
energy independence,” Short said. ” Isn’t the BS so pervasive?
First class spin job. That guy must be paid well.
As I mentioned in another post elsewhere yesterday, there is considerable discussion by technically knowledgeable people over at Colonel Pat Lang’s blog that it is more than likely that the Houthis are quite capable of this level of attack.
It is not even clear whether “drones” in the usual sense were involved. It has been suggested that the attacking devices were more like bargain-basement “cruise missiles”. The technology is guide and aim them is readily available these days in cheap devices based on or similar to cell phones, and air frames are available on the black market. Some of the missile bodies appear to be of types available from the ‘Stans.
Cell-phone level devices with GPS are all you need to hit a target with up to thirty feet of precision – and some of these oil storage tanks are 150-feet wide. The plate thickness of the steel walls and roof of these tanks can be penetrated by shaped charge technology which is widely known to anyone with explosives expertise.
It’s also possible that the guidance was aided by persons on the ground near the facility using either laser targeting devices or radio control using cell phones to “dial in” the attacking machines.
Then all you need are some guys with basic engineering and computer programming skills – which the Houthis have. The Houthis aren’t just some guys in flip-flops with AK’s. The software which is available everywhere can be modified to do guidance and targeting tasks, even to do image processing to allow the drone or missile to identify its target, much like the much more sophisticated US and Russian cruise missiles do.
As for defenses, these types of devices can’t be detected or targeted by the sort of radar and anti-missile defenses the US has been selling – for big bucks – to the Saudis. If the Saudis had Russian Pantsir air defenses, they could have dealt with the drones – as has been demonstrated numerous times in Syria where Russia and Syria have beaten back armed drone attacks on Russian and Syria facilities.
So it is not at all clear that it even had to be Iran supplying theHouthis with the technology – although I wouldn’t be surprised if some of it was, either overtly or covertly or via smuggling channels – known or unknown to Iran. A lot of this stuff is probably smuggled from Europe or Eastern Europe.
Given the enormous success of this attack, expect the Houthis to repeat it as soon as they can cobble together the parts for another one. And the cost for this attack was probably no more than a couple thousand dollars per drone or less. Figure the cost-benefit given the loss to Saudi Arabia of probably hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and lost production.
Nothing will change in Saudi Arabia or israel. Saudi is a Monarchy.
israel is a lost cause, whether Netanyahu or whoever racist zionist pig
wins the next election, it will still be an apartheid jewish only kitty
litter box and it will always control the American Congress, the press
and Hollywood. America has been a lost cause for decades and I’ll have
perverse joy and gleeful pleasure in seeing these callous blood thirsty
elites and their followers wallow in their own hubris and, hopefully,
in rubble like Aleppo, Syria or Sana’a Yemen seeking help and getting
none but more bombs, death and destruction. That is all they deserve.