While they secured almost no international support, the US is still
about to launch its maritime fleet in the Persian Gulf, intended to
protect oil shipments going through the area. The move is seen further raising the stakes against Iran.
The US presented Iran as a major threat to shipping, and the perception
that the only targets Iran has are enemies like Britain who have seized
Iranian ships was a big reason most nations didn’t want to get involved.
Analysts are warning that the presence of this new fleet, and its
Iran-targeting mission risks sparking an “accidental escalation” if the
forces stumble into an unexpected situation and stumble into a fight.
They also warn it’s going to ratchet up tensions with Iran, as Iran is
likely to see it as an “offensive” fleet targeting them, and respond
before the fleet can attack any naval targets.
And to think before boy genius pulled us out of the JCPOA there was no need for any such bullsh*t. First you create the need and then you hope they take the bait. This is about as transparent as the “good cop/bad cop” load of garbage.
Here is where “troop deployment” numbers go awry. These naval, air, and land targeting spec ops should be added to “troops deployed to th ME”, but never are.
All part of the plan to establish a naval blockade of Iranian oil shipping – thus forcing Iran to retaliate, and thus starting the war.
No telling how long this will take – probably some months. But Trump will try to at least start the blockade before the election to prove how tough he is on Iran, figuring that will help his chances to win. Then if Iran retaliates before the election, Trump will be able to blame Iran and get a war poll bounce. If Iran retaliates after the election, Trump can just go ahead and start the war (assuming he won) without worrying about the election.
The actual war will probably start after the election – whoever wins – depending on how the blockade goes. They still have to join Israel in getting rid of Hezbollah first, and that’s likely to happen this year or next year. If that starts before the US election, Trump will spin it as “helping Israel against terrorists” and get a war poll bounce. If it starts after the election, like Iran, he will not care what his supporters think.
So both Hezbollah and Iran wars can be a win-win for Trump, regardless of his previous promises.
Now we wait to see if you’re right. One year and two months and counting. The suspense and drama continue.