On Thursday evening, long-standing fears of a US war with Iran came
worryingly close to reality. President Trump discussed the matter on
Friday, revealing that he called off the attack with a mere 10 minutes
to spare.
Trump had signed off on attack Iran earlier on Thursday, to the point that the planes were already in the air and en route to hit three Iranian targets when he changed his mind. US military and diplomatic officials, and those in the know, were awaiting an attack that ultimately never came.
10 minutes from striking is worryingly close, and Trump’s disclosures on
the matter are troubling. Apparently it was only at this late hour that
Trump came around to asking for specifics on how many Iranians his order would kill. The generals told him approximately 150.
This was the game-changer, and Trump was nominally ordering this attack
over the shoot down of a single US surveillance drone, and he rightly
noticed that killing 150 people was not very proportionate to that,
fortunately, he called the attack off before the first missiles were
fired.
Trump went on to issue a flurry of Tweets saying Iran would never be allowed
to have nuclear weapons, which of course this entire almost-attack had
not a thing to do with. He also bragged about how much damage the US
sanctions have done to Iran and how weakened Iran already is.
Troublingly though, administration hawks were still able to get Trump to
sign off on the attack earlier on Thursday, and his assurances on
Twitter suggest that the loss of the single drone really didn’t enter
into it as a big issue for him. This raises ongoing concerns that having
called off the Thursday attack, Trump might be sold on a lesser attack
at any time, or at least something nominally different that gets carried
out before he gets around to asking about the casualties.
Where did that 150 people number come from?
What area was he supposedly going to strike, was it the missile launch area?
Ray, what does it matter,,what is your point,,,did you want a little blood, or maybe alot?? How many families ruined would satisfy you….
To answer Rays question The missiles was fired from a movable truck
Of course not Jay, pulling 150 numbers out of thin air at the time, was why i asked the question, and did he have the figure of obamas deal
150 Billion cash Dollars in mind, you really have to question everything Trump says.
Ray, wow, that is some really heavy thinking. LOL!
I question every thing coming out of the DC GHOULS,,,not just Prez. Trump, who I find to be a refreshing change, in many, but not all areas. Thrump 2020
My doubting senses are tingling
I like the part about how weak Iran is from the years of sanctions, yet they were still able to shoot down one of our Grade-A Primo drones out of the sky.
I think what we REALLY need to worry about is the Tic Tac and other UFO’s shadowing our carrier battle groups and flying circles around our best fighter planes. Luis Elizondo and the History Channel has been exposing the shocking situation on a six part series Friday nights on the History Channel. We may very well be in for another Pearl Harbor and 911 a hundred times worse at any moment, while we play our childish games.
Sweet zombie Jesus, what a bunch of goddamn lunatics.
comrade, great language skillz you have there,,,bud. You are a class act, not!
Hat’s off to you, comrade. Short and sweet. The only thing I might add would be “We’re f*cked!”
Well that’s a given.
After reading this sad commentary on the US military, the attack planes probably got bad intel and were mistakenly heading for israel, which would have made for an interesting false flag event.
https://www.sott.net/article/415408-US-military-gets-lost-on-way-to-war-games-invades-small-Romanian-village-blames-weather
Denny, Remember the USS Liberty Massacre!!!
So many things do not add up — where to start? Nothing rings true. Like a reality TV show. Sure, this is how the campaigns are mounted — just some calling off, as if 10 minutes is sufficient to unwind what is under way. Sounds more like “we would have, we could have, we big and bad — so, we decided not to.
I am not sure what exactly are we trying to accomplish. Nuclear issue? Not an issue until US cancelled. Presumably bad deal? OK, why bad, what is bad that needs remedy?! An attempt to make missiles issue fizzled — Iran like others has a right in defense. Then there was terrorism and interfering in affairs of Middle East. As nobody seriously took the claim of sponsoring terrorism, just the opposite— Iran help Iraq and Syria beat ISIS — did not hold water. Then “meddling”. Which country in the Middle East is complaining about Iran meddling in their affairs? None. US linking Houthis to Iran is likewise laughable. But since we are killing plenty of Yemenis — what is an issue there?
In short, Iran war is a SOLUTION IN SEARCH OF A PROBLEM.
And we the public have for so long been rather disinterested, as these wars did not endanger our lives, nor did we suffer serious military or civilian losses. This will change. The more we push for war, the less careful we will be, more arrogant. And others will have better means of striking back.
We should be OUTRAGED that our military is contemplating using nuclear power to “win”, to terrify weaker opponents into conceding, surrendering any of their assets on demand. Going nuclear is now in service of policies wrecked our standing in the world, our economy and degraded the entire Western civilization. So instead of APOLOGIZING — they get to dictate how to proceed. And they want to nuke somebody , anybody — just to feel like “winners”.
We may want to ask questions — like are our cities safe from attack? The losing pack of neocon wolfs are dangerous. They already blame us — our attitudes stink, they say.
So why not hurt us, get some sitting duck soldiers pay ultimate price, in order to improve our attitude?
With this much chaos and lack of purpose, I will not put anything past them.
(I read all the lively commentary that preceded your offering, Bianca, and then your very first sentence. And now I am writing this as I delay just the briefest of moments to prolong the anticipation of reading your take on the matter. Okay, enough anticipation.)
Iran said bring it big bully, Trump said oops maybe another time.
waves, Great judgement on the part of the Prez. What would BUTTaGIG have done???
I would have preferred the pres not make all those threats in the first place to not follow through on.
If Trump really wants to slow it down, lets put it to a vote in Congress. Should we start WW3 because the Iranians killed our robot?
No but we should never let Iran have nuclear weapons even if we have kill everyone in Iran .
What? The JCPoA was to stop the nukes Iran does not want to get anyway, so Trump pulls the USA out of the plan and continues to “punish” the nation which has committed no crime. It is no joke.
I don’t think I have read a more idiotic comment since I’ve been here. And that’s since 2004, so good job.
“No but we should never let Iran have nuclear weapons even if we have kill everyone in Iran .”
So should the Russians and Chinese have done that to us? You reap what you sow, my friend.
if the Russians and Chinese could have stopped us we probably would not have nuclear weapons today .
So Trump wants a proportionate response. How about instructing the Swiss ambassador in Tehran to deliver an ultimatum promising to shoot down the next Iranian drone that trespasses into American air space?
Sky, What American air space??? Think about it….
You missed his point.
There’s a perverse logic to your suggestion, Sky. The day the world decides to put sanctions on the USA for being a rogue nation that is addicted to war and in violation of every international law there is, will be the day that we get a real taste of what a “proportionate” response would be. There could be regular flights to The Hague for all of our war criminals which would include every president since forever.
You apparently don’t know the Hague court . It is court that releases criminals and charge innocents .
I threw The Hague into my comment only to underscore the fact that the USA is currently run by war criminals and psychopaths who need some “justice” meted out to them in a court of law. That this will never actually happen is obvious.
I agree with what you said But I sat through the Hague court And found out there a lot more War criminals than just Americans . Justice is not something I found in the world court . This court really made me afraid of a world government .
I calculate that Iran’s best long range ballistic missiles won’t even get more than 2500 km (about 1550 miles). And the distance to Palmdale in California where the Global Hawk drone was built is 13,134 kilometer or 8,161
miles.
so there is a quantitative inequality here when talking about any proportionate response/s … to anything…. Which of course is why Iran and its allies have to rely on asymmetrical warfare at this point, to somehow force Trump to drop the sanctions
Seems to me some of you would rather Trump had let the attack happen so you could rip him more. Pathetic.
Spanky doesnt need an Iran attack to be ripped, his governance sucks septic without it.
Dave, you are wrong again. Trump is trying to clean up the mess created since JFK was murdered, and you can’t deal with it, you would rather have a POTUS who stands by and watches as our nation crumbles.
“you would rather have a POTUS who stands by and watches as our nation crumbles.”
Yes, I would rather have a POTUS who stands by and watches our nation crumble, than have one like Bush, Obama, or Trump whose actions actively cause it to crumble even worse.
And what specific comments made you think that? Or is any criticism of Trump just made up bullshit in order to “rip him”?
yes mostly B.S. in order to rip him
No, most of the negative comments are well deserved and are based on Trump’s actions. It is Trump that got us to this point with his belligerence towards Iran that started during his campaign and continued unabated right up to this aborted attack.
Like Tulsi Gabbard, we support Trump’s decision to call off the attack on Iran. You may remember that Tulsi and the rest of us also supported Obama’s decision to call off his planned attack on Syria several years ago. But, like Tulsi, we recognize the Trump and Obama are both pursuing Neocon foreign policies that require permanent war and run the risk of regional war or even world war.
Sky, Prez. Trump does not want war, he wants bizzness, he just needs to realize he IS the Potus, and needs to grow a bigger set of ballz. The Prez. needs to listen to the like of Rand Paul, Davis Stockman, and Tucker Carlson, among a few others.
Speaking for myself, I was greatly relieved when Trump decided not to attack. Unfortunately, it is not comforting at all that he’s such an idiot that he would threaten such an attack in the first place. What makes you think any of us would like to have seen him attack? We oppose Trump because we oppose war. So how is our opposition to Trump indicative that we would like to see him pull the trigger, just to prove something? That does not make any sense at all. We are not invested in proving that Trump is a warmonger, the way you are invested in proving that Trump is “great.” You are clearly projecting.
So we are suppose to believe that agent orange only received the potential casualty count minutes before he called it off, right.
“Agent Orange” just called off a Neocon fabricated shooting war, so maybe, just maybe, it’s time for you to dial back your self-fellating Trump hate.
“Neocon fabricated”? The conditions that led to this potential shooting war were brought about by Trump’s actions which were all about pleasing Bibi. And TS13’s question is something we should all be demanding to be answered. To say he learned about the potential casualties while the planes were in the air either tells us of our military leaders are incompetent or Trump is full of sh*t.
So if I go out and shoot and kill tens of thousands of innocent civilians, and then while my gun is aimed at the next victim, I put it down, that makes me a hero?
Maybe it’s the 8th time he was told that it sunk in. Those numbers are available right on the “bomb menu”..just wasn’t paying attention, actually, cant afford it.
Or maybe, as often happens, conditions changed. An unexpected convoy arrived at one of the targets, or it came to the planners’ attention that a bunch of base housing went in since the last update on the target or that today was the day a bunch of school-children were getting a tour.
Even on low-level ops, it’s not unusual to get new information minutes before a patrol steps off or an air sortie begins.
That is a possibility. Apparently such warnings of civilian casualties didn’t slow the US rubbling of Syria, or increasing air strikes in every other theater, or aiding and arming the Saudi rubbling of Yemen. But, sure, maybe the spy drones didn’t see the new housing…..
I’m trying to picture planes in the air getting the command to stand down because a convoy arrived at one of the targets. And for some reason I just can’t fathom that.
That was just an example of conditions changing while an operation is already in motion. If you want a more elaborate convoy hypothetical, OK — the convoy is an IAEA team conducting a surprise inspection on the facility to be bombed; or a foreign official from a country the US would rather not piss off at the moment getting a surprise tour.
Note: I am NOT expressing an opinion that the operation was canceled because of supposed “new information.” Just pointing out that yes, casualty projections and such CAN change at the last minute for various reasons.
In my opinion, there was never going to be a strike. The whole purpose of the exercise was for the US to tell various parties, honestly or otherwise, “we could have done this, and CHOSE not to.”
I’d have to argue about the IAEA team. I think it would have been bombs away with a smirk on our face. I say that with tongue in cheek. I think.
I wonder how many Americans were among the 150 projected casualties? Our Real Stable Genius-In-Chief finally figured out that if the Iranians could shoot down a drone flying in stealth mode and track its presumably stealthed crewed companion craft, they probably have the capability to bring down F-18’s and to backtrack cruise missiles to take out their launch sites. The Abraham Lincoln, the Arlington, the Gonzalez, the McFaul and the rest of the Abraham Lincoln task force are sitting ducks in the Persian Gulf with no defense against the ballistic missiles the Iranians developed precisely to take out surface ships within a range of 500 miles of their territory. Even a Real Stable Genius would have a hard time getting re-elected after a strategic debacle in the Persian Gulf that left Iran holding American POW’s.
If I remember right we already shot a Iranian airliner down a few years ago by mistake So we are one catastrphhy ahead of them any way . So I guess we could just let them get by with this big mistake .
Trump The Merciful!!!. While others cry out for blood. Trump 2020!! Pompeo and Walrus, HIT THE ROAD!!!! Senator Graham goes on tilt, blood, blood he cries, while the fake SJW’s denounce Prez. Trump again! LOL!!!
Right, Trump the merciful. Create the conditions for war, including draconian sanctions that are anything but “merciful” and then call off an attack at the last minute and that qualifies as “merciful”? Declare an emergency so you can sell the headchoppers weapons so they can continue their “merciful” starvation of the civilian population of Yemen.
It did not matter whether Mr. Trump understood on January 20, 2017 when he was sworn in as president that he immediately became a war president. War presidents ought to try to unite the nation behind their war policies especially for ending wars. For about 2 1/2 years President Trump did exactly the opposite. He increased the division of an already quite divided nation which is one reason why his approval rating has remained in the low 40’s most of the time.
Today it is imperative that President Trump understands that he must rally our nation behind a sane Iran policy (1). That will have huge consequences for his presidential campaign. He can no longer afford campaign rallies at which his raucous supporters yell “lock her up” because that will continue to alienate much of the voters. For the same reason he must stop his vilification of President Obama.
Trump has never run a unifying campaign and it remains to be seen whether he can do one now. That is his big test emanating from the drone-incident.
(1) The very first step required for a sane Iran policy is to remove our government’s cocked and loaded gun from the head of Iran’s President Rouhani.
H
While perhaps genuinely wishing to avoid a horrendous conflict, the US President’s contradictory behaviour might make it more likely. Is 150 lives (presumably all military) disproportionate? Or is the president more worried – understandably, and to his credit if so – that an attack on Iran will in all probability result in a clash with Russia and China? That humanity is facing another world war cannot be blamed upon President Trump. While his actions may not help, we have moving towards this Armageddon long before his election, although he might be the one to press the Button.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
In other words, no one really knows what happened except Trump pulled back and then publicly used the excuse that the strike would be “disproportionate” to a drone downing.
More likely, someone derailed him at the last minute by pointing out something that worried him about the likely reactions by other parties to the strike. Whether that was concern that Iran would over-react to a limited strike, or some other situation, the bottom line is we don’t know.
Sure, Trump *could* have actually been concerned about a “disproportionate” strike. Anything is possible. But as Jason points out, it’s a problem when the President of the United States authorizes a military attack on someone already on a hair trigger over his own threats.
This is a replay of Obama almost starting a war with Syria in August, 2013, over the bogus “chemical attack.” In that case as well, it was push back from Congress, the Pentagon, and especially Putin’s maneuver of publicly getting Assad to agree to get rid of his chemical weapons that derailed that attack. In other words, the President was pressured to back down despite his clear intention to attack.
Obama’s only concern was not to be blamed for starting a new Middle East war. It could well be that Trump is also concerned about being blamed for that by his political base. But as I said before, it seems clear he can be led by the nose by his advisers – except when he decides to “buck” – so that all it will take is a minor event like a drone shoot down to cause him to launch an attack which can then be easily escalated to all out war.
I think it’s almost a certainty that Israel has communicated its fear of a retaliatory strike by Hezbollah to US officials in the Pentagon, and to the neocons around Trump since the ramp up to war with Iran began. Whether that had any connection to Trump’s pull back is obviously unknown. But it has to be part of the calculations being taken into consideration by everyone involved.
Let’s say Iran took a minor strike on its military assets without directly responding. That would be a wise move on their part. Let Trump have his little “victory.” Then get Hezbollah to do some damage to Israel later. Why over-react to a minor strike and start a full scale war with the US when you can avoid it?
Everyone knows Iran’s plan in a war with the US is to fight asymmetrically as much as possible. Hezbollah is a direct deterrent to a war with Iran by Israel and by extension the US. Someone may have suggested to Trump that by attacking Iran with even a minor strike that it might have consequences that Israel can’t afford, should Iran (or Hezbollah on its own) over-react to that strike. (Not that I think Sayed Nasrallah would over-react, but who knows what might happen?)
Bottom line: We don’t know what happened and probably never will. What we think we know is that Trump was led to authorize a military attack on Iran, however small, despite Iran being on a hair trigger due to his threats. That alone is bad news.
There are some things we do know..if the drone was in Iranian territory, the US has no legal basis to “retaliate”. To even launch an attack without clear evidence is criminal. In an age of split second warfare, launching such an attack, even if recalled, is highly irresponsible. An error in recall could be cataclysmic. Overall, just another example why trump should be removed.
In Obama’s case in Syria, it was not congress that “pushed back”, but, Obama stating he would not attack without Congressional approval. Then Russia brokered the WMD deal, and everybody calmed down….for a while anyway.
The very stable dumbass ripped up the JCPOA without anything to replace it with. Then…he reinstated sanctions, then he installed Bolton…of all frigging people. Along with Pompeo a blind man could see where this would eventually end up…right the f##k where we are now…with an easily maneuvered, serially dishonest, wannabe strong man at the helm.