When President Trump said “you’ll find out” of him possibly attacking Iran earlier in the day, officials say he had already signed off on such an attack. That no attack has come as on Thursday night is something of a surprise, especially for military officials.
Intense discussion and debate, and Trump bringing in Congressional
leaders for a consultation on Thursday evening apparently all came with
the plans approved, and Trump had ordered attacks on Iranian radar
systems and missile batteries.
As of 7:00 pm, US military and diplomatic officials were still waiting
for news of a strike. It got so far that one administration official
said that the US warplanes were already in the air, en route to the
attack, when Trump gave a call to stand down. Luckily, no missiles had
yet been fired at that point.
That the attack was still on as of 7:00 pm likely means it was still on
when Congressional leaders were brought in, though so far it is unclear
if Trump told them anything specific about an imminent war.
Both the White House and Pentagon denied comment on why the attack didn’t happen. They also asked the New York Times, who broke the story, to withhold the article from the public.
At this point, then, all we know is Trump signed off on attacking Iran,
then for some last second reason stopped the attack. It’s not clear why
tis was done, or if the administration’s intention is for the attack to
just happen a little bit later.
Tensions between the US and Iran have been raising concern about a war
for some time, and there are multiple hawks within the administration
pushing to make such an attack happen. That Trump continues to maintain
that he doesn’t want war, at least publicly, is noteworthy, but signing
orders to attack Iran, even if it didn’t end up happening, suggests he’s
increasingly on the fence.
I am hopeful that Trump is bluffing. Khomeini seems to think so or Iran wouldn’t have released the drone shoot-down video.
Khomeini??
He means Khameini.
Look at the bright side with this drone downing. No one was KIA, no purple hearts or silver stars awarded, no secret flights to Dover AFB loaded with coke or heroin with dead bodies in unmarked coffins. And no yellow ribbons wrapped around some goddamned tree in middle America. The only thing lost was a few egos with those drone operators in Nevada and (maybe) a pizza delivery drone from one of two Pizza Huts in the UAE. And what’s a few hundred million bucks to the US military anyway? I’ll be happy if this “incident” remains at tit-for-tat level and nobody gets hurt.
The above news has the whiff of propoganda. I dont believe any of it.
The attack was called off because he listened to the Tucker Carlson show tonight which laid out the reasons not to invade. Carlson is the second most powerful person in America. He ended the episode by by emphasizing how important it is for Trump to fire Bolton.
Or someone played back what he said at that very same press conference: “I ran on no more forever wars.”
Isn’t it great having a president who places such high value on cable tv shows? Loves him some teevee.
Did you then watch Pete Hegseth and Mark Levin on Hannity, lambast Carlson for daring to not want another war. They must have read Goering’s statements at Nuremburg on how to silence the peacemakers.
“Carlson is the second most powerful person in America.”
Unfortunately the most powerful person is America is still Netanyahu..
An attack on Iran would triple the price of oil 500 days before a Presidential Election, and for what reason. Because they were spying and got their drone shot down?
Not just oil, but it would send the world economy into a tailspin. Iran would send the KSA and UAE oilfields up in smoke. Guerrilla actions by Iran and proxies all over the ME region and reverberations throughout the Muslim world. In short, it would be nuts to attack Iran when we are still seeing the folly of having attacked Iraq and Afghanistan.
“but it would send the world economy into a tailspin” along with Trump’s precious Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
In an area of such intense US scrutiny, it is very unlikely that Iran could have recovered any of the downed drone if it did not land in their territorial waters. Apparently the US is lying and Iran is telling the truth: the drone invaded Iranian airspace.
Good point. It should have been obvious but I missed it.
So much for trying to interpret Trump’s tweets and random comments to the press! Assuming this story is true, which, since everyone lies in the government (and media), we can’t be entirely sure, it makes a mockery of Trump’s statements and all the twisted attempts to figure out his intentions.
Everyone spent time trying to figure out what he “wants” – when it was clear what the US neocons and Deep State wants, along with Israel, is a war with Iran.
Apparently this is a replay of Obama’s August, 2013, intention of starting a war with Syria over a bogus “chemical attack”. He, too, was within hours of starting the war but pulled back when he got push back from Congress and/or the Pentagon, and most crucially Putin got Assad to get rid of his chemical weapons.
My guess is that Israel put in a word at the last minute that it couldn’t afford a US strike on Iran until Hezbollah was taken care of. And we all know when Israel says. “Jump!”, Trump doesn’t ask how high.
Despite the fact that Trump has allegedly pulled back from attacking Iran in some pointless “retaliatory strike”, this clearly shows how easily the US is prepared to start yet another massive conflagration in the Middle East.
Can we get past the “navel gazing” now and understand that another war in the Middle East is coming – and coming soon?
Apparently, State Department Officials were worried that Iran’s new surface to air defense is a lot more formidable than expected (NY Times linked on MSN) and pulled the recall button. Sorry Trump Iran is not Granada Island or Panama and they will inflict lots of pain to your expensive military toys.
And on Jane’s Defense website today: “Iran credited a 3 Khordad, one of several new indigenous surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, with the shootdown”.
Your guess is always that every event in the Middle East revolves around Israel’s fear of Hezbollah.
The more likely explanation is that Trump wanted to do two things:
1) Signal US restraint to the UN and EU; while
2) Telling Iran that bad things had been coming their way before he exercised said restraint.
Basically telling all of the parties above “I could have punched Iran in the jaw but decided not to,” instead of appearing either overly aggressive or weak.
You have a funny definition of “restraint”. If I go to someone’s house with a loaded weapon, aim it at the house, then don’t shoot, am I exercising restraint ? No, I am committing the crime of brandishing a firearm. Trump ordering a strike is criminal, plain and simple.
No, I don’t have a funny definition of “restraint.” The people who run American foreign policy do.
No, my “guess” is that the only reason Israel hasn’t started a war with Iran is fear of Hezbollah. And that isn’t a “guess.” It’s based on the military reality on the ground.
You seem not to understand that Hezbollah can literally cause Israel’s economy to evaporate simply by raining enough missiles down on it to force the population into bomb shelters 24×7 for a long enough time. With an estimated missile arsenal of between 50,000 and 100,000 (some say even more) they have more than enough to do that.
And as I’ve said before, without US help, Israel is unlikely to be able to degrade Hezbollah enough to counter that capability. Otherwise they would have done it by now. 2006 was a wake up call on the limits of Israeli military power and Israel is fully aware of how much stronger Hezbollah is today.
Your “guess” – which is not a “more likely explanation” – about Trump wanting to “show restraint” is just mind-reading. Trump has been threatening Iran for months and years. Iran doesn’t need a reminder.
And since when does the US give a damn about the UN’s opinion? Or the EU’s?
No. Someone put the brakes on Trump – someone with enough influence on him to override his advisers, at least temporarily. It could be a random decision on Trump’s part, as well – all his decisions are random, since he is clueless about what to do about anything. He might have wanted to simply be obstinate against his advisers who have been pushing him to war for months.
But more likely someone derailed his decision. And there are few people outside his advisers and family who could do that. Netanyahu would be one of them. And the only reason Netanyahu would try to prevent a US war with Iran – despite his otherwise slavering for one – is fear of Hezbollah and its potential for devastating the Israeli economy and ticking off the electorate so they vote his party out in the next election. Domestic politics usually overrules foreign policy even in rabid Israel.
I didn’t say Trump wanted to “show” restraint. I said he wanted to “signal” restraint. There’s a difference. It was a PR move.
“You seem not to understand that Hezbollah can literally cause Israel’s economy to evaporate simply by raining enough missiles down on it to force the population into bomb shelters 24×7 for a long enough time.”
And you seem not to understand that when you spend 10 years announcing that every event in the Middle East is actually all about Israel v. Hezbollah and predicting that the US is going to go to war with Hezbollah on Israel’s behalf REAL SOON NOW, eventually people notice that it’s not happening and figure out that there’s probably more and other stuff going on than your theory provides for.
I’ve spent *13* years telling people the Iran war will happen – but not “real soon now.” I never predicted a time frame.
And for those 13 years, fools have been telling me that an Iran war was “impossible” or at best “unlikely.”
But Thursday night we were 10 – or 30, depending on what statement from Trump is believable – minutes away from that war. Which pretty much makes it clear that a war with Iran is quite possible and even likely if Trump doesn’t clean his house of neocons and back off from supporting Israel no matter what.
The time frame I predict – this summer or next summer – is for an Israeli attack on Hezbollah – not Iran. I don’t claim that attack is inevitable – other events could derail it. But if I were Netanyahu, with a President like Trump in the White House, I would realize that this is the best possible time to try to get rid of Hezbollah. But with a US election coming up next year, with Trump not guaranteed to win it, I would be pushing the Hezbollah as threat narrative – which he has been doing if you’ve read all the stories about Hezbollah border tunnels. I would set up an incident that would “justify” an Israeli attack. And I would try to insure that everyone I have influence with in the US government was on board with the US joining Israel in that attack. So that Trump would be pressured to authorize it.
The problem is that Trump might be afraid to do that if he thinks it would hurt his election chances. That’s obvious. However, such an attack could also be easily spun that it would help his chances if he claims that he is “saving Israel from a terrorist threat.”
Also, keep in mind that Hezbollah and Lebanon are not Iran. No one is predicting “massive consequences” if the US attacks a “terrorist group” in a small country. There might very well be bad consequences for Israel, but that’s precisely what Israel wants the US to help it avoid.
There will naturally be complaints from various parties, perhaps in the EU and elsewhere, about such an attack. There will be no UNSC support since Russia at least and possibly China would veto it. But Trump can use the AUMF to “justify” the attack, because the US considers Hezbollah to be a “terrorist group”. That doesn’t leave US opponents a leg to stand on. There will be no Congressional push back once they understand this is an Israel thing and all their AIPAC supporters are on board.
Only Tulsi Gabbard *might* complain – and she supports US anti-terrorism efforts herself. Where does she stand on Hezbollah? I don’t know. And she has no power to stop it anyway, so who cares.
Now I could be completely wrong about this. Maybe Netanyahu or his military advisers have never figured out that they need 10-20,000 US troops and some B-52s to get rid of Hezbollah. Maybe they don’t want to risk any more bad PR over Israeli actions. But they’ve been threatening Lebanon with another massive war ever since 2006, so I doubt that.
The only two things that has kept Israel from starting a war with Iran is 1) the bad PR from unilaterally attacking Iran without a clear imminent military threat to Israel (thus jeopardizing the US response Israel needs to prosecute the war), and 2) Hezbollah’s possible reaction.
For Israel, Iran can wait. What matters is getting the Hezbollah threat removed or at least degraded to a point where Israel can handle what’s left.
Now it’s possible that Netanyahu doesn’t care about Hezbollah being a threat in an Iran war. Maybe his advisers haven’t told him what Hezbollah can do to Israel’s economy. Maybe he doesn’t care about that. I could thus be wrong about Israel’s focus on Hezbollah.
If that’s true, then maybe there won’t be an attack on Hezbollah by Israel or the US. Maybe there won’t be an Iran war that follows on from that.
But the odds are in my favor since Hezbollah’s threat to Israel is a real fact on the ground. And Israel’s antipathy to Hezbollah and Iran are known facts. So is Trump’s unwavering support for Israel and antipathy to Iran.
So if there’s “more stuff going on” than I allow for, feel free to suggest it. I acknowledge the possibility. But “explaining the unknown by the still more unknown” or Rumsfeld’s “unknown unknowns” is just sticking your head in the sand. We know what we do know and that’s what I’m basing my analysis on.
The reports suggest reluctance to launch war on Iran. Perhaps they are not quite ready to commence the assault. Or maybe the fear is the US getting bogged down in another Iraq, which Donald Trump promised in 2016 he would avoid and bring American troops home. Perhaps the fears are of an even worse conflict, the one nobody wants but no one seems able to avoid.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
What a dangerous clown. Someone who knows what shite means went in and put his toys away.
I think Bolton and Pompeo are actively trying to force his hand. This is the second, possibly the third time Trump has had to tell them to back off.
Poor Trump with his neocon, warmongering advisors… that he hired. If they keep forcing his hand, why not fire them?
Then Netanyahu, MBS and Sheldon Adelson will be mad at him.
Agreed. He should fire them. He should never have hired them. What he needs is someone like Colin Powell at State and perhaps someone like Brent Scowcroft at NSC.
You’re just now coming to this conclusion? You should read up on ole’ Johns history.
I didn’t just now conclude that Bolton is evil. The surprise here is that Trump had the sense to shut him down…. this time.
Duane, it was Trump, not Pompeo or Bolton, who ordered the attack before he changed his mind.
This is a real stable genius at work.
Yes of course. But I think they steered him into it. And I think they will continue doing so.
Ya think!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Duh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m not trying to belittle your post or sentiment. I just think that what you said is soooooo true that it should be obvious to any sentient being.
The appointment of those two dopes was perhaps the greatest mistake Trump has made yet. I can’t imagine the trouble those assholes will cause in the future as they hone their deceptive skills.
Again, I don’t intend to come across as critical of your post.
I think that the extremists both in Washington and Tehran have attempted to push the leaders of their countries into more serious acts. Acts of war. Here it was the Bolton clique. In Iran it was the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard. It began with the deliberate provocation of the Bolton’s to send a spy drone over the Strait in the direction of the coast of Iran. I believe that President Trump had not been informed. The RG took the bait and downed the drone to test President Rouhani.
This set of incidents calls for the immediate establishment of a direct phone line between president Trump and president Rouhani similar to the special “Trump to Putin” line. Next, president Trump should take steps to strengthen Rouhani against the RG. The best step would be to admit the folly of pulling out of the 5+1 agreement and returning to it unconditionally. The immediate benefit will be a return to more normal state of the oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Until our president pulled back from attacking Iran his foreign policies reminded me of Goethe’s poem of the magician’s apprentice. By pulling out of the 5+1 agreement our apprentice had set into motion events over which he had no control and there was no master magician in the US who was going to stop the madness. Only Trump himself could wake up from his disastrous slumber and act as his own master magician. He has done so, but will it last? With Trump one never knows.
Hopefully he has finally understood that regime change in Iran does not mean the emergence of a US-friendly sort of democracy. It means the ruling of Iran by the brutal Revolutionary Guard.
Can we simplify? We are acting as if defending Kansas, while Iran is actually defending their back yards. Nobody in the area asked Trump to defend them against Iran. Not even Saudis. Iraq,,?Kuwait, Oman and Qatar are STRONGLY against US staring war. UAE and Qatar are ambivalent , Bahrain afraid of 80% Shia population. Saudi Arabia — lip service, getting less pronounced every time Congress questions arms sales, UK questions arms sales.,,
So, who is being legitimately defensive?
Can we drop Revolutionary Guard? Before, it was Ahmedinejad – after that Guards, and after them something else.
The real issue is — what on earth are we doing there?
Actually, Bianca, we don’t belong in the Middle East. That region’s been involved in wars from time immemorial. It’s long time that DJT honors his promise to withdraw from the ME and bring the troops home. They invaded Syria illegally under Obama; and. last December, DJT announced a total withdrawal of US troops from Syria. However, Pompous Pompass and Bonkers Bolton totally sabotaged his agenda, and he should’ve fired them on the spot. Unfortunately, he didn’t have the guts to do it, but he’d better fire them now.
“extremists both in Washington and Tehran have attempted to push the leaders of their countries into more serious acts. Acts of ”
I see extremists only on one side and that side is American side. Revolutionary guard is doing what America would do if tomorrow Iran did not allow Mexico to sell corn beef oil parts greens leafy vegetables and onions and avocado or did not allow Congo to empty its mineral riches to USA.
So now we have to be upset that the completely illegal, needless, vicious and typical US aggressive war is not actually taking place (yet)??
The drone was sent not to start a justification for war but to test out their defensive capabilities.
To quote Seraph:
“You do not truly know someone until you fight them.”
No! 150 will die? No! Stand down! ~ minutes later asks how’s that selling of weapons to Saudi pigs to kill off thousands of Yemenis going?
This was stopped for 2 reasons. 1 Friday Morning Markets (oil is already jumping) and 2 least important except to him… He’ll look like a nice guy. Shit we would have lost at least one bird. Those 300’s are NOT old Soviet surplus.
Has anyone noticed that in the last two weeks, the editorial staff here has gotten rather deferential to Mr Trump’s reputation? I’ve noticed a handful of articles like this one which conclude with a clumsy piece of pro-administration spin. This still IS an anti-war site, correct?
“President Trump said ‘you’ll find out’ of him possibly attacking Iran [after signing the order to attack]” ->
“That Trump continues to maintain that he doesn’t want war, at least publicly, is noteworthy, but signing orders to attack Iran, even if it didn’t end up happening, suggests he’s increasingly on the fence. ”
**This lunatic signed off on orders to attack Iran!** When asked THAT DAY about planned attacks on Iran, did he say, “let’s hope not?” Or, ” I’m working to prevent such a catastrophe? ” No, he coyly says, “you’ll find out,” which is a non-answer. Of course we’ll find out.
So, he’s not “increasingly on the fence,” he signed papers okaying military strikes against Iran. He DOESN’T “continue to maintain that he doesn’t want war.” He makes coy and misleading statements.
“That Trump continues to make contradictory and largely self-serving statements regarding Iran, while signing off on an attack, is troubling, even if said attack never occurred, for whatever reason.” Fixed it for you.
The making of a peace president.. First you campaign on a promise(to Bibi) to be belligerent towards Iran. Once elected you hire and appoint fervent anti-Iran, pro-Israel nut jobs Pompeo and Bolton. Your first official visit is to the bastion of Jeffersonian democracy, Saudi Arabia, which turns out to be a circle jerk of Iran bashing in between sword dancing and orb rubbing. You go good on your promise to dump the JCPOA. Then you reimpose the draconian sanctions that are designed to destroy Iran’s economy. You then flood the region with more military assets, threaten annihilation and say you are doing this because of Iran being such an imminent threat. Throw in a couple of false flags and now we have our reason to attack. But right at the last minute you decide against the attack and there you have it, a peace president.
“…and there you have it, a peace president.” You will never get the Trumpsters to think anything else, wars. It is locked into their psyches that Trump is really a peacenik who will eventually pull us out of all these aggressive illegal wars. The fact that these are all wars for Israel and that Trump is Bibi the organ grinder’s monkey dancing around with his little tin cup desperately looking for support from Zionists, Christian and otherwise, in the 2020 election doesn’t phase them in the least.
Bluster and bullshit. He knows full well that if he declares war on Iran, he might as well declare the petro dollar dead on the same day.
I grow more and more disillusioned with Trump, a candidate I supported, with every passing day.
The most stark contrast, to my mind, between him and Hillary (I call her Killary) was his reserve about using military force compared to her abject and obvious willingness to use military force on a moment’s notice. I once compared her, rightfully I think, to Cleopatra.
I’m completely sick of all these damned wars. And, if Trump starts one I’ll stay home on election day, 2020.