A lot of details are lacking, with everyone claiming not to be
authorized to speak to the media, but heavy fighting broke out in
Yemen’s Taiz, this time between two factions within the Saudi-led
invasion force.
The fighting was between a UAE-funded Salafist group, and the Islah
Party, which is loyal to the Hadi government and backed by the Saudis.
Fighting began Saturday and raged into Sunday, with at least six killed so far.
This has been a recurring problem in Yemen, where the invasion force is
built around dozens of different factions with conflicting end games,
united only by their mutual distaste for Shi’ites. It’s a good way to
attract Islamists, but no guarantee they won’t fight one another.
While the two factions have somewhat conflicting religious ideologies,
it is also common for UAE-backed forces to wage their own little
internal wars trying to get favorable positions, with an eye toward
retaining important influence in the post-war period.
The last sentence is the key. This was going on for a while throughout the South, with UAE being in US camp — hedging its bets that MBS would not last UAE played a pivotal role in Lebanese prime minister abduction, in coordination with Saudi faction that was liyal to MbNayaf, the ousted ruler. He was whisked to UAE, no doubt on an “informational” trip, as to Lebanese politics. This was a mistake. If US hoped to get an international incident and blame MBS, it failed. In Beirut, Shia and Sunni were united in demanding he returns and decide on resignation while at home. This was a welcome opening for MBS, and a very diminished Hariri came back to Lebanon.
But now, since Kashoggi murder, MBS has greater power jn Saudi Arabia, having dealt with the intelligence “reorganization”, and ousting few prominent figures. MBS first trip was to UAE. One can inly imagine the conversation — MBS putting his foot down, making sure UAE no longer doubts his survival ir his father’s on the throne. Ever since, UAE has been quiet, not advancing against Hadi troups.
So, I have a feeling that it was Hadi forces that are starting to push back and paying in kind. Taiz is a must hold place for Hadi, while Shia is content with Taiz blickade and holding industrial outskirts.
I do not doubt UAE will be pulling back from many other far flung places they control with US blessing. They are afraid of Saudis by far more, and having faith in US support less. With US using UAE as a proxy for now nearly two years — any sign of UAE starting to pull back, will be welcome news to Sana’a. There is a good chance for a deal between Houthis and Hadi, with Ssudi backing — if US interests are not being pushed by US. With US using UN as a Troyan horse in Hodeidah — the stalemate continues. But UN was nott alliwed to soread its wings in Hodeidah, outside what was agreed to in Sweden. The fate of UAE in two Southern provinces, is now in question. I believe that their independence minded leaders will be beneficiaries, Saudis and UAE may strike a brotherly bargain, letting independence of the South get suppirt from UAE, while Saudis would support Houthi-Hadi compromise.
Tauz is only an example what will happen in Aden. US does not have intentions on getting directly involved in Aden, but has lost proxies to Saudi Arabia. It remains to be seen just how will US manage politically to stay relevant on the Arabian side of Bab Al Mandeb, the control of its both African and Arabian sides was the purpose of the whole Yemeni mess.
But in the style of Thousand and One Night, it took twists and turns, restructuring in the process the entire Gulf politics. Not to neockn liking at all. All attempts at bullying MBS into caving in on Yemen, failed. What will neocons come up with next?
As for the bleeding hearts who believe jn the Congressional charade of stopping US jnvolvrment in Yemeni war — I have knlyvone thing to say. Believe it only when US stops blickade of Hodeidah. And stops rationing food and medicine. Hungry or not — Sana’a will not let US into Hoodeidah. UN food comes with much too high price for them. It is by far more likely that Saudis will use Egypt and or Sudan in effort to cut deal between Sana’a and Hadi. Saudis may be more inclined to work with UAE to sort out South.