If there is one consistent fact about Israeli military policy, it is that they are always at least sort of at war with Iran. The Syrian War, and Iran’s advisory role there has made this fairly simple, as Israel just bombs Damascus a few times a month, insisting they’re hitting Iran.
But ISIS is defeated, and like everyone else, Iran is scaling back its involvement in Syria. That’s giving Israel fewer targets, and it’s a really inopportune time for that. With the Israeli election looming, officials are all keyed up to win votes with quasi-legal airstrikes.
That’s got some analysts predicting Israel will look for other Iranian targets outside of Syria. The simplest place would be Iraq, where US media outlets have spent years calling the Iraqi government’s paramilitary forces “Iran-backed militias.”
The number of US troops in Iraq may make this somewhat diplomatically dicey, though so far Israel has been able to count on the US to sign off on whatever attacks on whatever nominally Iranian targets they choose. And if it’s a choice between that and Israel not launching military strikes on a nearby country, its safe to bet the attacks will continue.
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