The US continues to try to impose a long-sought regime change in Venezuela, a lot of the pieces have already fallen into place, to the point that the US is already backing a “new” government there, and demanding that the world do the same.
Actually getting that government in power, however, has one big stumbling block, and that is the Venezuelan military, which remains overwhelmingly loyal to the actual government and the sitting president. Pentagon officials say they are working on that.
Pentagon officials now say that they are having direct talks with the leadership of the Venezuelan military, and trying to convince senior officers to defect, either backing the US-backed Guaido or at least getting out of the way.
There have been almost no defections so far, but the Pentagon remains optimistic, saying they think once they get the “first couple pebbles” then they’ll really start seeing a bigger stream of defections following.
President Maduro’s continued rule seems to rest heavily on military support, but despite the US confidence there is no sign that the military’s position is about to shift decisively against him.
Attention all generals and admirals serving in the endless united states war against Earth and Life;
Consider your duty to truth, and the Nuremberg principles and all that matters in your actual living family relationships. Focus on military empire, ecological collapse, and peace on Earth. Resign from your servitude to capitalist wealth. Stand up for what is right. Resign from the united states military.
I’m going to go out on a limb and translate “urging”, and “convincing” into ” bribe” and “extort”…
Also threaten and blackmail.
Bolton, going by his diplomatic visit to Erdogan, seems to lead stick before carrot.
Or rather, no carrot at all, as not being hit by the stick (much) is seemingly sufficient.
Venezuelan generals can look at Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria and apply common sense to U.S. overtures to civil war.
There are probably enough serving senior members from the 2002 attempted coup, when the late Hugo Chavez was arrested, to remember how badly that went down. Guaido also wants to ‘privatize’ Venezuelan oil; not to many Venezuelans will like that on principle.
At the very least, the moment Venezuela comes under U.S. control, the General’s careers if not their lives will come up for review at the total mercy of the U.S..
They have over 2000 generals all of them living very well indeed,
thanks to rampant corruption. It will be hard to bribe them or even
threaten them into switching sides because if the Maduro government
falls, many of them will find themselves in prison for corruption and
they know it. But regardless of the corruption, it doesn’t mean it won’t
happen, but it really depends on the people protesting more than
anything else. Right now the military is standing against 80% of the
people, will they continue to stand against them if it hits 95%? What if
it hits a point where 99% of the people want them gone and what if the
enlisted guys stop showing up for work? My guess is that the generals
will eventually start fleeing like rats from a sinking ship if this
happens.
I’m not in favor of the US’s attempt at
getting rid of any leader, that’s the job of their own people. I do wish
their people luck though. Hopefully the protests remain as peaceful as
possible and that in the end the people get to decide who their next
president is. I stand with the people of Venezuela, not their government
and not our government.
It’s funny but I doubt
there are any anti-war people who wouldn’t be wishing the protesters
good luck if not for the US coming in on their side. Had the US stayed
out, the anti-war community would almost assuredly be behind the
protesters. They are after all peacefully protesting against an
illegitimate regime that has all but destroyed their once rich country
and who holds them hostage with a corrupt and often brutal military. Why
shouldn’t we continue to wish them luck? I know I do regardless of what
anyone says or thinks.
And NO, Maduro is not the
“legitimate” leader of their country. Few leaders are legitimate under
the best of conditions, he certainly isn’t. He is the leader because he
has the guns not because he has the support of the people. If it’s not
the people who determine the legit leader than who does? I guess here at
anti-war we now think that might makes right and that a leader is legit
regardless of what the people think and so long as the leader has the
guns to stay in power then he’s a good guy.
Maduro
is a scum bag. He locked up the opposition, he then talked a shill into
running against him so that it looked like they actually held an
election. Voter turn out was less than half of what it was in the
previous election because the people who had their picks locked up or
barred from running boycotted the election.
Venezuela
is now a banana republic because you can’t do normal business there.
Nobody wants to invest in a nation that will steal your stuff if it ever
looks profitable. Chavez stole then shot the golden good and Maduro
cooked and ate it. There is not a single industry that wasn’t looted and
for the most part destroyed by these criminals.
Regardless
of what you think about the US involvement we should all hope that the
peaceful protesters get what they want and they want new elections, with
real candidates allowed to run. Yet oddly I don’t see anyone in the
anti-war community but myself standing up for these people and their
right to determine who rules their country. Instead we get people making
the false claim that Maduro is a legitimate president as if that means
the people there should just go home and accept their fate. At most the
anti-war people say nothing at all about them as if they don’t mean
anything. On the one hand they pretend to be saving the protesters from a
war, but they won’t simply wish them luck and hope that Maduro does as
his own people demand. So we end up once again in this really odd
situation where anti-war people are making excuses for tin pot
dictators, with many hoping that the tin pot dictators actually win out
against their own people.
It’s none of our
business but can we please stop saying stupid things like “Maduro is the
legitimate” leader. Nobody who actually pays attention thinks that
Maduro is legitimate under any other scenario than “Might makes right”.
Well if you believe that might makes right then why shouldn’t the US go
in and use it’s might? Think about that one for a second. If Maduro can
use force against his people to stay in power and that makes him legit
then why would it be illegitimate for the US to do the same and to
declare they are doing it for the people? If it’s not up to the
Venezuelan people who runs their country then “who’s might, makes
right?”
Supporting scumbags who rule via might
makes right is a very slippery slope and it actually leaves the anti-war
community open to hypocrisy charges. Do we believe in might makes right
or not. I guess the answer seems to be yes, most people a round here do
believe in might makes right just so long as it’s not the US doing it. I
can’t see how anyone can argue that Maduro is legit under any other
theory than Might Makes Right and in fact that is exactly how he is
currently ruling and we here at anti-war seem to be supporting him. So
yep, it’s hypocritical to the max and what’s ironic is that pretty much
everyone outside of the anti-war community sees it as hypocritical and
has seen it that way for some time. That’s because it is hypocritical
and it’s hard to take hypocrites who support every tin pot dictator who
waves his sword at the US seriously.
The Venezuelan Constitutional process allows Maduro to be recalled in three years if 20% demand a recall referendum.
20% is very easy to achieve against Maduro. The Constituent National Assembly has no authority over the recall process. Maduro’s PSUV will then have to select a new leader, and new elections may be held then.
If one respects Venezuelan sovereignty – that is, the Venezuelan peoples and their right to collective self-determination, then one has to respect their Constitutional process. Although well written, the document’s flaws are being exposed and tested as well as its strengths. The Consititution is not unworkable.
However, to the U.S. Empire it does put the ‘wrong’ people in charge, Chavista U.S. opponents but also, too many poor people.
There little choice but to recognize Maduro as the legal President of Venezuela.
Guaido is even less qualified to be national President. With around 50% of his five year term is up, there should be recall movement in his own constituency. That there is not , is possibly due to legal exceptionalism granted by U.S. and allied favour, or Maduro’s own fear of awakening the recall process.
“Article 72 • Head of state removal
All magistrates and other offices filled by popular vote are subject to revocation.
Once half of the term of office to which an official has been elected has elapsed, a
number of voters constituting at least 20% of the voters registered in the pertinent
circumscription may extend a petition for the calling of a referendum to revoke such official’s mandate.
When a number of voters equal to or greater than the number of those who elected the official vote in favor of revocation, provided that a number of voters equal to or greater than 25% of the total number of registered voters have voted in the revocation election, the official’s mandate shall be deemed revoked, and immediate action shall be taken to fill the permanent vacancy in accordance with the provided for in this Constitution and by law.
The revocation of the mandate for the collegiate bodies shall be performed in accordance with the law.
During the term to which the official was elected, only one petition to recall may be
filed.”
He locked up the opposition, which makes your entire post hot air. He’s not constitutionally elected after doing that, I don’t care what you say. He is ruling only because he has the military on his side. Make all the excuses you want but that’s the truth.
He is ruling because in his country might makes right, end of story. They thought the same thing, when they stole from US and other corporations as well. There seems to be a theme here. If you support that then why not support a coup? Apparently you believe that so long as you can grab power and keep it that makes you legit. And again, if those are the rules then why not have the US just take over, what difference does it make? Oh how about this, before the next election they lock up Maduro first? Would that make it fair and constitutional?
Honestly, where do you think it says in their constitution that he can lock up the opposition? That would be like Trump locking up whoever runs against him, except some Republican who is on his side anyway. Would that be constitutional too? What if 90% of the population of the US then took to the streets? Would Trump be legit just because the courts that he packed and the congress he created out of thin air won’t get rid of him? Seriously this is so stupid, nobody with half a brain in their head should be arguing that Maduro is Legit, when it’s so clear that he isn’t.
They did not hold legitimate elections. That’s simply a fact and without legitimate elections he is not the legitimate leader and is in fact only ruling via force. He certainly isn’t ruling via the request of the people.
Argue that it’s none of our business, argue that we suck at trying to do this kind of thing, argue that we have no moral authority, etc., but don’t try and pretend that a guy who stole the election by locking up his opponents and rules despite the calls of the people to step down, is legit. If that’s legit then it’s just as legit to throw a coup or to invade them and put in a puppet.
The election was legal. The opposition wished to sabotage appearances of legitimacy from the start, knowing they could never win nationally and popularly because of the rural-urban split in Maduro’s favour.
Crying ‘Locked up opposition leaders’ is an emotional appeal that ignores why they may have been locked up, and, opposition political parties can select new leaders, though some parties were delisted for boycotting the election, after the election.
In Brazil, being locked up did not stop Lula from opposing Bolonsaro and running a surrogate candidate. Nor did Lula disgrace himself and his movement by calling for a boycott, but rather to show their strength by voting. Nor did Lula cry ‘stolen election’ and ‘foreign intervention’ when he lost.
In ‘might makes right’ terms, Lula is The Man and exemplary for the region. Guaido and his cronies are crybratties who need Western nannys with guns.
For places like Latin America, incarceration is an improvement over the usual U.S. sponsored and direct killings people like Guaido seem eager to invite with calls for intervention. That tells a lot about where the so-called opposition really stands as far as Venezuelan sovereignty and safety are concerned and how far they are willing to go to attain power.
The opposition arrests seem to be primarily house arrests. Although I don’t have full information, some political leaders like Leopoldo Lopez and Antonio Ledzima were using their influence not just to persuade Venezuelans not to vote, but forcibly block roads impeding Venezuelans from voting and opposition leaders were inciting violence.
Foreign nationalizations happen. Misrule has a price; the indigs get uppity and could care less about alternate optical perspectives on taking back from individual foreigners what they believe was stolen from them collectively as a people.
One of the rationalizations from the rust belt on supporting Trump is, if the system don’t work for me, I don’t want it to work for anyone. We in the middle class stand to lose the most from being caught in the middle of wealth disparity and reactions to it.
They were arrested and not allowed on the ballot. That’s not an act of sabotage by the opposition. And it doesn’t just give the appearance of being illegitimate, it’s illegitimate. Honestly man, nobody on Earth should have to accept elections in their own county if this happened to them. You wouldn’t would you? Be honest and don’t just give me some line of crap about it being ok because they are a third world nation. I don’t care what they did anywhere else on Earth.
Nobody should have to accept crap like this and in fact if any leaders of any nation do this they should
be opposed and they should get their asses kicked out of office and put in prison themselves.
You can make all the lame excuses you want. I stand with the people of Venezuela. And Trust me, you didn’t make one logical argument as to why the people of Venezuela should have to put up with this thug.
There are tons of logical arguments as to why it’s none of our businesses, there isn’t a single excuse for why the people of Venezuela should stay
out of their own business. This is their business and they have every right in the world to demand new elections. Why the hell is that so hard for you to understand? You yourself would never accept this if it happened in your country would you? Would you really sit on your hands if you had a chance to get rid of a guy who had #ucked up your country like he has and who is as corrupt and this guy and especially after he just locked up and stopped the opposition members from running.
This is another thing that really ticks me off about the anti-war movement so thanks for reminding me. The idea that a guy like Maduro doesn’t put out his own propaganda is of course laughable, of course he does. So does the US, the Truth is someplace in the middle. But if you listened to anti-war people and read their columns etc. what you get is a ton of propaganda repeated straight from these tin pot dictators. It happens every time and it’s repeated as the gospel and as if these self serving scumbags would never lie. Honestly, if I had a dollar for every time someone anti-war repeated absolute propaganda nonsense straight out of some dictators mouth I’d be rich. Just because someone is opposed to the US empire does not mean that they are honest or trustworthy or decent in any way at all. They can be huge piles of steaming crap and often are and anti-war people will repeat their propaganda word for word no matter how chock full of lies it is. Why? I think it’s just this knee jerk reaction to assume anyone who opposes the US war machine must be on our side and therefore must be believed.
In Venezuela the truth isn’t all that complicated. They ran their country into the ground and the US actually becomes a good “foil” or a good excuse for why they failed. Blame it on the US, not their own corruption. Blame it on the US that they can’t get credit/financing instead of the fact that they stole from everyone and now can’t be trusted. Blame the US for the people in the streets and not the corruption or even the fact that you locked up the opposition and refused to allow them to run. etc. etc. etc. And YOU fall for it.
Stop repeating tin pot dictators propaganda, it only makes anti-war people look like idiots and malcontents. Maduro is not legit because he refused to hold legitimate elections. The People there want actual elections and I’m with them, they should be allowed to hold new elections and until they do they have no legitimate leader. And no I don’t care if there are other places on Earth even more jacked up who have people who put up with it. That’s their business too. If some nations are fine with having sham elections so be it. But if the people of a nation demand fair elections I’m standing with them. You can spew out propaganda from the illegitimate leaders if you want to but I will not act on the behalf of this dictator by doing the same or by accepting that propaganda as anything other than what it is.
Uhhh, W8. Opposition leaders called for an election boycott from the very beginning, and, its inherently irrational for opposition leaders to on one hand call for an election boycott, then on the other want to be on the ballot, yet dropped from the ballot or not, claim foul when they lose.
The resulting outcome of an opposition boycott, had they been on the ballot, would likely be their supporters don’t vote, PSUV supporter do, and they lose the election. Being blocked from further participation simply removes boycotters from a platform from which to preach democratic sabotage at undecided voters.
There is no minimum participatory requirement to validate Venezuelan elections. Underwhelming turnout and Maduro victory does not automatically mean opposition party leaders would have won, only that Maduro is personally disliked by an unknown combination of undecided voters and PSUV supporters.
Electoral politics being quirky, there is still the outside possibility, that had opposition boycotters remained on the ballot, most opposition partisans might vote anyway, but enough undecided voters and PSUV supporters who dislike Maduro stay home, giving the opposition an election win by default.
Outside that odd outcome, which can’t be proven since election boycotters were dropped from the ballot, Maduro would still be President, and you are arguing from an irrational technicality not against Venezuelan law anyway. Had opposition leaders boycotted, and remained on the ballot, they were essentially campaigning to throw the election and lose anyway.
In any case the people of Venezuela DO put up with Maduro, enough such that the U.S. and its allies have to concoct an elaborate charade to delegitimize the Venezuealan popular government, including trying to game the Venezuelan constitution, far more cynically than Maduro does.
You’re judging them by YOUR standards of fair democratic behavior and what YOU want for them (and yourself), not THEIR standards of democratic behavior and what THEY want for themselves. Venezuelans are polarized between those few who will benefit from selling out their sovereignty, a larger minority who understand, they will most certainly not, and an undecided middle who understands U.S. intervention = bad.
It certainly made me blink when the Supreme Tribunal of Justice tried to assume the powers of the National Assembly, an absurd violation of the principle of separation of powers between the legislative and judicial branches of power.
Fortunately a combination of public outcry and intervention by the Executive caused the Supreme Tribunal to walk back their ruling. Venezuelans are slowly en masse getting a feel for self-responsible rule of law.
Venezuelan democracy is making progress; there is no justification for foreign intervention save to save Venezuelans from understanding democratic self-responsibility.
If you want to trash Madoro and claim his government is illegitimate, that’s fine. Your argument has no standing under Venezuelan law as understood supported by a critical mass of Venezuelans, their military (so far) and their few international allies, and even a cursory understanding of Venezuelan law. Their understanding has moral priority as Venezuela is their country, and, they aren’t far off that elusive standard of perfect adherence to perfect law.
Hilarites claim she is the rightful President for winning the popular vote. The Electoral College says Trump won by electoral district, which is prioritized over the popular vote and so happens to prioritize flyover country over big cities. This is law. Only a few niche parties whose lack of support disqualified them from the ballot preach election boycott, so this is an untested area of American party politics.
If Venezuelans abandon their own Constitution in favour of Western foreign intervenors, they abandon rule of law by their own interpretation. Guaido has to win within the Venezuelan legal system to be legit, not with foreign help.
Chavismos will simply claim foreign intervention delegitimizes Guaido, which most people have already rightfully concluded in a blink without writing a wall of text as I have.