With a second Trump-Kim summit coming up late in February, the
administration is high on the chances for progress. North Korea is also
upbeat, saying they want peace with the US and normal relations.
US Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats is undermining this, however, by insisting that the intelligence assessment is that North Korea will never denuclearize as they promised, and are only ever going to give up parts of the program for “key US and international concessions.”
This seems tailor-made to derail the Trump Administration’s efforts, as
the key angle of these next talks in North Korea wanting some
concessions in return for continuing with denuclearization, and the
Coats assessment will likely prevent Trump from making such concessions.
It is the administration’s fear that any concessions to North Korea
would be attacked that has greatly harmed the process, as since the
first summit, the US has actually increased sanctions and other pressure
on North Korea, just to prove that North Korea isn’t getting anything
in return.
North Korea, however, is getting sick of not getting anything in return,
and increasingly afraid that by the time they comply with all US
demands, they won’t have any leverage left to ensure the US comes
through with peace deals.
Trump has no leverage since the world is ran by billionaires and corporate fascists. We live in a controlled democracy so Trump, like all his predecessors, is nothing more than a reality TV host put in place to keep the plebs from rising up.
Until the ponzi blows up we’re just along for the ride. Get those yellow vests bought while they’re cheap and plentiful.
Unlike the Frenchies, Americans don’t have the cojones to put on yellow vests and really come out to show what a real protest is. We’re too busy shopping.
Early this month, trump sent 3 B-2 bombers, and 6 B-52h bombers to Guam shortly after announcing the next round of “talks”. The B-1s that are there are not nuclear capable, as per the 2010 Start treaty. The recent deployment
are. It is pretty clear, trump is not negotiating towards common disarmament, or, peace, he is seeking a surrender. This week, the military began deploying trump’s “usable nukes” for the “why cant we use em” president. Why in the world would North Koreans disarm their deterrence under these circumstances?
Intelligence chief contradicts trump on NK. trump contradicts intell on Iran. What is the pattern here?
To state the obvious, analysis of evidence does not matter, it is the narrative that matters. i have no clue where trump gets his “analysis” to base his conclusions on iran, but it ain’t from intell.
No strike that, trump gets it from bolton, bolton gets it from nitenyahoo, and nitenyahoo pulls it out of, well everyone knows where niten gets his diagrams.
The the question becomes, why are we spending billions, make that trillions, on this entire intell apparatus if we can just wait for directives from niten, why not save a few bucks to spend on F-35’s and/or two more $13 bil carriers just ordered and just ask niten what he wants the conclusion to be.
We are living in an era of absurdity which has challenged any and all attempts to comprehend./
There is nothing the US could offer North Korea to induce the Kim regime to give up its nuclear deterrent. The North Koreans are not gullible enough to repeat Gadafi’s mistake. Kim is playing to Trump’s ego and his weak intellect to buy time. A year ago the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimated that NK had fissile material for 30 to 60 bombs and might have assembled 10 to 20 weapons. In October South Korea’s unification minister estimated that the North now has between 20 to 60 nukes assembled. Whatever the actual number of nukes, North Korea is the ninth nuclear power and will keep its deterrent at least until the Koreas are reunited.
There is plenty the US could offer. All within trump’s status as CiC. First, he could send the nuclear first strike assets I mentioned above, back home. Second, and this would be big to Kim, and cheap for trump….send the naval assets needed to invade the North home. Most of the wargames which haven’t occurred involve amphibious landings of South Korean troops, no troops are going to board those ships for exercises anyway, might as well send them home. Then, the peace treaty. Frankly, i don’t know why trump didn’t do these things over a year ago, except to play games with peace in Korea for election purposes. Pitiful.
Dave, I hate to agree with Dan Coats or Gina Haspel on anything. But Kim is no dummy. Even if the US withdrew every boot and boat from East Asia and signed a non-aggression treaty with NK, the US could bring the ships and the troops back as soon as NK spiked its nukes. In fact, the US Tridents and ballistic missiles could strike NK in an hour even if the US completely withdrew the surface fleet and the boots. .
NK is the ninth nuclear power and Kim won’t give that up unless, possibly, the Koreas reunited on terms that preserves the NK regime.
Kim blew up his test site after it accomplished its mission. Now NK has between 10 and 60 nukes mounted on ballistic missiles guaranteeing that the US will not attack. Kim has been treating Trump like the childish egotistical moron Trump is. But the Kim family will never trust the US. Before there was Libya there was Wounded Knee, Washita, the Oklahoma Land Rush and Taiwan.
I agree, North Korea is a nuke state, and it is going to stay that way, unless it is turned into glass by the US. Yet, nuclear cold war is about tensions, threats and deployments. This is where trump has failed to play to his strong suit (at least to antiwar folk) ….the idea of beach resorts in the North. All the history and assets you point out are true, yet, trump, could, begin the withdrawal of pointless US assets, and begin planning golf courses in the North. Fact is, Americans vacation in France, England, etc…all nuclear states, that cultural exchange preempts war, builds trust. Why hasn’t trump gone that way ? It is actually easy, just order assets home. It pisses me off that he hasn’t done so considering his rhetoric. The only explanation I can envision, is that he is a big fat liar.