Since the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, top Ukrainian politicians have talked up the threat of an imminent, full-scale war in Russia. Years later, this continues to get raised every time a tense moment with Russia erupts.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko is now citing Sunday’s maritime incident in the Sea of Azov, and says “Ukraine is under threat of full-scale war with Russia,” claiming Russia had massively increased the number of troops and tanks on their border.
He claims to have intelligence reports on the military buildup, but offered no details. It would be strange for Russia to precipitously escalate their presence at the border, given Ukraine is much weaker militarily, and the eastern border includes an ethnic Russian separatist region of Ukraine.
Since 2014, Russia and Ukraine have had a tense relationship, but little sign of direct military conflict, above and beyond conflicting interests in the separatist region. Ukraine simply doesn’t have a military built for such a conflict.