The White House is still “weighing options” on what to do about Saudi Arabia murdering US permanent resident Jamal Khashoggi. President Trump clearly isn’t inclined to do very much, but that doesn’t mean some pressure won’t come to bear.
Officials are already reporting some minor pressure on the Saudis, centered on 16-months of Saudi isolation of Qatar, a vital US ally. Administration officials are reportedly urging the Saudis to quickly resolve Qatar.
Officials also say they want the Saudis to take certain unspecified “steps” on the wildly unpopular war in Yemen. The US has been getting a lot of flack for backing that Saudi war, and the Saudis are committing a lot of war crimes.
This has long been a low priority for the administration, but with many in Congress already concerned about the Yemen war crimes and US culpability, the sudden addition of the scandal around Khashoggi’s murder may oblige at least some effort to improve the situation.
I wonder which specifics steps the Saudis are supposed to take. Escalate to get it over with quickly? Shift blame , like to UAE? Dump Bin Salman? Intervene through UN?
Saudis have too much blood on their hands already..
What we are doing to Iran is what we should be doing to the Saudis. But being in compliance with the nuke deal is apparently more of a justification for crippling sanctions than carrying out a genocidal type war against an impoverished neighbor. At least it is when Bibi says so.
Oman is the only GCC country that escaped tumoil in the region. This may change. Bibi visited Oman.
This is rather cute. MbS came to power on
June 21st, as Allegiance Council was alarmed enough with Muhammed bin Nayaf, the Crown Prince, to sack him, and appoint MbS, then Defence Minister and King’s son to the post of de facto ruler. What did Natef do —other than for two years spreading Salafi cults throughout Middle East? And escallating Yemen crisis into a nasty war? I will tell you what he did. He orchestrated Qarar fiasco. in May, acting on fake social media post — went into full rage against Qatar, setting out CONDITIONS to be met, number one break with Iran, or else! Did the bad boy MbS do it? No, Washington man in Riyadh, the counterterrorism tzar did it. Since Qatar shares gas field with Iran — that meant squeeze on Iran. AND THIS WAS THE LAST STRAW — COUNCIL DECIDED HE HAD TO GO. And the moment MbS came to power, a conference on Qatar was held in Cairo, where THE CONDITIONS were changed to PRINCIPLES. So, Qatar situation was calmed, and turned into frozen conflict. The other day, MbS praised the resilience of Qatar economy.
But now, US is to demand relaxation!! The only reason to stay in this frozen mode is — US. The presence of Iran there, and Turkish military base are major irritants — so all MbS needed to do is to keeo it frozen and out if news. Apart from some of his more Israeli leaning officials who advicated — canal!
So, MbS can get “tougher” on Qatar, to avoid diktat from Washington, or comply — providing the deminization ends. Not likely, as he is still keeping the investigation close to his chest. As it may well be a major conspiracy by Interior, former power base if ousted Nayaf, Saudis will take time to find out how deep the rabbit hole goes.
Turkey is doing a good job by feeding media cycles, even though Western press tends to exaggerate and spin Turkish statements.
You will find banded about that there was no consensus of the Council for ousting Nayaf and appointing MbS. Quite to the contrary. Nayaf’s spread of Wahhabi religious leaders throughout Salafi movement, from Egypt to Iraq, Libya to Syria, South Yemen — alarmed them as Saudi Arabia’s religious establishment, guardians of Mecca and Medina, was going to be associated with the religious cults that beheaded people without judicial process, and executing oeople who never did any harm. From old people to children. The alarm in the Council resulted in them spproaching King and recommending his son as crown Prince. The document was signed that stipulates the rules of succession. MbS after becoming King cannot appoint his son to Crown Prince position as an heir. The decision reverts to the Council. But they approved of MbS who had strong interest in economy and modernization, as Saudi Arabia stalled in last thirty years.
MbS took many powers from Wahhabi establushment, cutting off money for foreign ventures. ISIS collapsed, and the only place where it exists is in US protected area in Al -Tanf, so they can stay along Euphrates, not fearing Syrian Army advance.
So, anybody guessing on the outcome? Given that the British establishment fanciful theater is now involved — I say drama will last a bit longer. MbS has for a while been clipping the “authonomy” of Brittish controlled Guards, and replacing his security with Pakistani soldiers — I can see cause for Lindon discomfort. Just recently, MbS gave Pakistan 500 million, to offset US cuts to military. And, strangely enough, Imran Khan announced that he will mediate between Iran and Saydi Arabia on Yemen.
But for as long as US is enforcing total blockade of all shipping to Hideidah — Yemen will starve. What is the reason for US not allowing shipments of food? The excuse of Iranian weapons smuggling was debunked by Turkey, sending ship with food and medical supplies — just to be turned away.
So, for starving babies, we need to look closer home. Why not allow any country to send ships with humanitarian supplies? Ships can be boarded and checked. Why limit the humanutarian aid to UN — when it is full kniwn that “UN” is not independent, and the aid has zillions strings attached. We may be approachin a point of no return. Instead of letting Kingdom reform their iwn way, and with all the internal constraints — we are trying to Putinize or Erdoganuze MbS. But I do not see who might be used to provoke Saudis into some regional squable. Somebidy we can support. Nethsnyshu tipped the hand — visited Oman. Oman managed to stay away from the Middle East conflagration. And intends to stay that way.
Well Bianca, you have again pictured MbS in a far better light than he appears to me. I sure hope you are correct in your assessment of MbS.. And I’m not so sure on the time line of his assention. Seemed the whole Yemen slaughter picked up pace just as MbS became Crown Prince.. You sure have me doing my homewerk on this Saudi actions & time. Mostly, I trust your view’s on this stuff in the Saudi sphere more than my own. But I still fear MsB is no Ghandi, and could be too much like Caligula…. I have a feeling before these fresh atrocities are over, we will know who this man is.
Ghandi? More like Machiavelli! Caligula not a good example, the bane derived from his nickname, as a kid. Meaning “little boots”, a copy of his father’s boots. Caligula’s life went downhill fast, and the circumstances shaped his sociopathy. MbS was shaped by very different circumstances. His earliest interest was economy and development. Graduated law, deliberately at home, as various princes studying abroad almost always ended up in a scandal that cost their royal families dearly. He was also known for crediting America with influencing the Kingdom, forcing it to adjust culturaly, and not end up like a hermit kingdom. He also believed that Iranian revolution shook Saudi royals who did not know how to react but to turn backwards, and conservativism became a shield from the dangers of revolution.
However, he did not in his early days display interest in military/security matters, but was more and more involved as the sucession of aging Crown Princes started to destabilize Saudi ruling structure. His father’s rise to Crown Prince and then to King in 2015 was an education in court politics, and the treacherous waters of the transition Kingdom was making from the founder’s brothers’ generation to the next generation. The story of aging crown Prince Muqrin was educational. It was an example of ruthlessnes by which the powerful Interior Ministry advanced the cause of Muhammed bin Nayef, while Muqrin was sidelined. The decision by the Allegiance Council was influenced by American liobbying.
I am convinced that the recklessnes of Nayaf, and the use of his power base in the Ministry of Inferior — caused a lots of fear. The two year period of his rule — April 2015 to June 2017 was the deadluest for the Middle East — armies of terrorists were overwhelming Syria and Iraq. First Salafi groups with a penchant for brutality were poping up like mushrooms, then old Al-Qaeda established itself and put roots in Syria and Southern Yemen. After the coordination among groups failed, miraculously ISIS showed up with promotional videos, all clad fashionably menacing, with leather holsters. It is now coming out how the propaganda worked to increase recruitment. None of that would have been possible without high level of coordination among various intelligence agencies, and massive funding. The fact that our media very elegantly avoids to even mention this oeriod of rule when America had high sway over decisions if the Kingdom is amazing. King did appoint his som to Defense Minister’s job, but he was in no position to make decisions. He was known for speaking out of protocol to Obama on foreign policy.
But after nearly declaring a war in Qatar, and Trump took credit for that blaming Qatar for terrirism, the Allegiance Council finally sacked him. The stiries of MbS extorting money from his Ritz Carton jail, may have some truth, but much more important objective was to address the question of loyalty after Nayaf ouster. In the last one year since MbS took power, Yemeni war has intensified in number of ways. UAE was given green light by us to takeover entire south, area where Saudi Arabia had almost complete support. And that started after MbS came to power. Saudis are now in position of losing every control of Bab Al Mandeb. Even Israel sent its Navy to Straights, to illustrate to Saudis what happens if they do not tow the line on Yemen.
The key question is — who is preventing food and medical supplies from coming through. Why is Iran excuse given to block any fliw of food into the country? US could have solved it ages ago —- just aliw humanitarian cargo to go through without delay, and instruct Saudis to not bomb convoys.
Does Saudi Srabia have a strategic jnterest in Yemen? Itvwas able to live with its neighbour for centuries, so what us new now. The fear if losing control iver the critical straights keeps Saudi Kingdom in this mesx — but it has no solution.
The best kne I heard was Imran Khan’s proposal of mediation between Saudis and Iran.
My first reaction to the myrder was that MbS organized it, deliberately sloppy with yelliw journalism quality. Reason, degrading relationship eith US, and then later pin the murder on political enemies. Reasons for wishing degradation are plenty — Yemen being one of them, China oul trade another, and in search if investments. With cutting off terrorist enterprises, abtrillion dollar Sovereign Wealth Fund was just established on Qatari model.
Saudi Arabia just added 500 million dollars to Chinese-Russian investment fund, and just gave Pakistan another 500 million following US cut in funding to Pakistan. Turkey is getting ready for a major operations in the northeast Syria —expected for a while as US is not tackling ISIS in Euphrates valley, and Kurds are not a factor, as nymerically they are weak. So, unless US plans to bring in troups, to keep that part of Syria occupied — Turkey will move in against both USIS. and YPG.
I am rather proud for making the p prediction — that Syria, Russia and Turkey have no intention going jnti Idlib — it is surrounded and not priority. Also, I oredicted Turkey had used Manbij as a negotiating bat against US — as US promised Kurds will withdraw. Now, operations is getting ready tio atrack Kurds along Turkush borders, but then after securing border, move into Euphrates valley against ISIS. All towns there are najority Syrian Arab, not Kurds. I do not think Turkeybwill hit Kobane, unless YPG is stupid enough to attack. Keep jn mjnd that Turkey now gave a large number of former Saudi funded groups. Al-Qaeda is trykng to challenge them from Idlib, but that is minor irritation.
Saudi withdrawal from fundjng private armies, and giving them religious cloak — will help stabilize both Iraq and Syria. As for Yemen, I do not see any easy solutikn. If YS wants to fo something — let us stop blockade of port and allow all countries to donate food and medical services. Yemen should be nobidy’s reservation.