President Trump told reporters Monday that he has talked with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about the death of Jamal Khashoggi and is “not satisfied with what I’ve heard.” He added that the Saudis need to be more forthcoming.
Trump further said he had rejected a request from Saudi Arabia to give them another month to complete the investigation, saying he believes “there’s no reason” for that much time to be taken.
Trump has long insisted he doesn’t want to do anything to Saudi Arabia to threaten US arms sales, or the “million jobs” he claims they will provide. Previously, he had said this was contingent on the royal family not being involved in the killing, which seems less and less likely.
Trump still seems unwilling to pin the death directly on the crown prince, however, and is just calling it a “plot gone awry.” He added that he doubts the official Saudi statement that Khashoggi got in a surprise fist-fight with the 15-man kill team and suddenly died.
It has become obvious that the Saudi murderers made serious mistakes. His fiancee should not have gone with him to the consulate to wait for him outside. Now they could not believably claim that Khashoggi walked out alive and “we do not know where he is”. Nevertheless they tried that explanation. When the Turkish evidence came to light and almost nobody believed their “he walked out alive” they had to concoct a new lie which they did.
Khashoggi’s fiancee is now under 24 hour Turkish protection because she is potentially a crown witness.
Plan A apparently was to lure Khashoggi to go to Riyadh voluntarily where he could be more safely murdered or, if he refused, to abduct him and the Turkish government would not have audio recordings of the subsequent murder. That failed because Khashoggi said no: very serious failure because he now had to be murdered in Istanbul.
There is now evidence that the Crown Prince phoned Khashoggi while he was inside the Saudi consulate and tried to talk him into accepting plan A. Khashoggi apparently refused.
Yes, this was a “botched plan”. Plan A. Start plan B.
I can hardly belueve the level of incompetence coming out of officialdom here in US. It is also pointless to speculate on a “personal involvement” of this ir that prince, since it is a matter of dealing between two states, US and Saudi Arabia. The “evidence” of phone call coming from the oalace straight to Kashogi in Consulate is pointless.
There are two possjble explanations for the spectacularly theatrical killing of Kadhoggi. One, he is killed by Saudi operatives in a manner sure to be visible — but why? And second this is a job by the supporters of ousted Crown Prince Nayaf — CIA darling, also, why? If first is the case, then there is a reason for insuring it is done so theatrically. Kashoggi vould have been killed in Turkey in a very incospicuous manner, blamed on Erdogan, Iran or Putin — for trying to make a good US ally look bad. But no, we the Saudi monarchy, decided to kill one minor irritant, a journalist most people never heard off before this spectacle. Erdogan insured that his end is taken care off — not allowing blame shifting to other convenient glibal villains. But why? Saudis are ready for a shift in policies and needed a tabloid level crisis to start the orocess of recriminations and eventual negotiated solutions. Why are they confident this will work? US does not have much leverage. Saudis are the linchpin of Iran policy, and key to pressure on Southwest Arabia, namely Yemen, for the US control of Bab Al Mandeb. Also, Saudis cut off money, preachers and military support for various “rebels” and caliphates. The vacuum filled up by Turkey and Russia, converting fighters into anti Kurdish force. AlQaeda in Idlib in trouble as well. Saudis must pkease China its main customer and Russia its supporter in oil price. Cannot go 100% against them. Option two, intelligence liyal to Nayaf and his supporters irganized this tabloid event in order to undermine Saudi Davos conference, and blame it in Crown Prince. As we should be well aware of the new Crown Prince has been alternatively bashed and praised from the start, and all the priblems that started under Nayaf were suddenly blamed in this prince. So, as he has been proven unrepentent and not makeable (energy deals with Russia, weapons), he may have been the target if this show. Do nor expect thus to be advertised by Saudis as they do not wish the workd to know that there are internal problems. Either scenario would result in shaking up jntelligence and any leftover Nayaf advisers. Such as two sacked, one dealing with Qarar, another with Yemen. I prefer the first scenario, as the second one would be stupid and point to US involvement sooner or later.
It is also in poir taste talk about “being satisfied”. Saudis are not a colony, as much as sone would like to believe it. Should they shift policy, they can get plenty if regional support. Now they are isolated. I do not consider UAE a factor. Any further pressure to unseat the Crown Prince or to demonize him so ge will be more makeable — would not be good for US in the ling run. Thise who mist bash Trump for trying to calm things, are the ones most to lose in any Saudi cooling off pro-Israel stance. Either way, ket us stop assuming others are stupid and incompetent. And we know best. Time to pay attention.
Interesting points.
I don’t buy into all the “reformer” garbage about MbS, but he certainly has done plenty to make enemies in Saudi Arabia itself. It doesn’t seem at all implausible that the whole POINT of killing Khashoggi was to create an international incident that would embarrass and weaken him by putting him on the bad side of two major allies (the US and Turkey).
In fact, with those major arms sales, possibly even support for the Yemen war, up in the air, the incident would actually seem to be a good excuse for deposing him, when before the incident DC would have looked askance at a coup.
It makes perfect sense that the Saudis would need a month to get their story straight.
Completely agree. I do not buy the reformer crap either. Know enough anout Saudi Arabia by visiting many times while working for UN IN Yemen to get a sense of the relationship between Wahhabi establishment and the House of Saud. Their relationship is contractual, has been for s while. Occassionally one side or the ither shifts the pendulum. Back in the sixties royals started having good life and travelled. But as word spread of their lose morals and spending, while populace was to remain poor and pious— Wahhabi establishment came down on royals lifestyle, and conservatives prevailed. Now that prince needed to cut money all over the globe to reign in Salafi mivement expenditures — and funding armed “rebels” and caliphates, Wahhabi establishment needed to lose some of its aura — hence, liberalising womens’ access to driving, cinemas, sportscstadiums. Wahhabi establushment could not condemn this, so he was able to get some of his dectractors out. Reforming economy is a necessity hardly anyone would disagree, especially investing outside oil production. And here, devil is in details, no reality to this yet.
I am still of two minds — as to who wanted the scandal that could not be swept under the rug. Salman could have wanted it to determine just how much he is worth to Washington, and to get piwers for a major bureaucratic shakeup. His enemies could have done it. But here is the lroblem for his enemies — King will back him up, and King has many goodies to give to achieve consensus of tribal leaders that actually set the highest level of policy. So far, MbS is winning, got two holdovers removed from advisory roles, ine on Yemen and the other on Qatar. Then he got the approval to shake up intelligence. If this was the job of his enemies, he would not like to advertise it. I still wonder — if this is the case — if the plotters really expected to prevail. The pressure from “ international community”, i.e. West, is going only to make him stronger. If he wanted the crisis, what does he want, and why us it worth the rapture in relations. The only thing I can see is China’s pressure to pay in gold yuan, and fear of US pressure to increase oul production once Iranian goes off the market. Saudis are touchy when it cones to delleging their oil fast, and not having viable, non-extraction economy. Yemen war going nowhere, Qatar not worried in the least, and Iraq paving the way to stability — Saudis have made enemues and ling term regional anymosity without defining their own interest. Whichever way one looks at it — something will have to give. But given geopolitical reality, the return to the maleable Nayaf era is no linger possible. So for those in YS who never trusted the guy, a word if advice. Something far worse may come to pass. Remembering Shah of Iran may be usefull compasison, or British debacle on Suez may be American one in pursuit of unilateral control of Bab Sl Mandeb. Saudi Arabia is so isolated in the region, that it does not help US having such ally.