UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura says that this period is a “moment of truth” for Syria’s post-war political process, as a pair of major conferences on the future of Syria are being planned in the next week.
That these are two wholly separate sets of talks underscores how complicated this is going to be. One set of talks is to involve Russia, Turkey, and Iran, while the other talks will involve the US and Saudi Arabia.
In both cases, the goal is a committee to lead to constitutional reform in Syria. It’s a foregone conclusion these two sets of nations will have very different ideas on where this should go, with the US having long insisted major figures in the current government be barred from running for office in the future.
Mistura says his primary concern is that the current round of talks don’t boil down to talks about the process instead of actual process. That’s a tall order, given how split both sides are on where Syria is going after the war.
Why would Syria pay any attention to the US and Saudi Arabia? Those nations attempt at regime change resulted in death and destruction.
The only card left for the US to play is the illegal occupation of Syrian territory by US armed forces.
De Mistura is a US/Western stooge, just like the UN sec. general, they want the terrorists to stay in Idlib, for other purpose…..like the same o same o regime change.
The nations that won the war, and occupy and control the country, will have a meeting to decide its future.
The nations that lost the war, were thrown out, and control nothing, will have a separate meeting in which they moan and complain.
UN is rapidly losing relevance. US and Saudi Arabia favor their selected puppets from Syrian emigree types, like Iraqi Chalabi. Russia, Iran and Turkey are actually having groups ftom Syria negotiating. Those that cut the deal with Government, with Russia or Turkey will have place at the table. The largest group, Jaish Al-Islam cut the deal with Turkey. Turkey influenced their leadership change to insure that new faces are representing the group in negotiation with Damascus. Same goes for various groups under umbrella of Free Syrian Army. All actors, Turkey, Russia and Iran want to make sure that these groups cannot be peeled off to US/Kurds, as the border region must be secured. Idlib has only Al-Qaeda that will not cut any deals — as their sponsors want them to create as much mayhem in Idlib as possible. But they are squeezed between Turkey and its allied groups, Kurds and Syrian Army. They have niwhere to go.
However, after Idlib, comes the question if Kurds occupying Arab towns and villages. With US blessing. Turkey may attack Kurds before Idlib becomes a major hot spot. And then — last but not least. US in and around Al-Tanf, where a refugee camp serves as the last ISIS hideout.
For US and Saudi Arabia, the moment of truth is Yemen. The South, where they thought they had upper hand — is rebelling. Hadi, president that is not wanted by either North or South — is in US for medical treatment. The entire pretext for war — to put Hadi back to power. Sure, the two should decide what exactly are they fighting for? And what did North Yemen do to them?
Without Hadi, they have no narrative.