The Manbij Military Council, the Arab force that was aligned with the Kurdish YPG, have warned on Wednesday that they will not accept any Turkish military presence inside their city. This is going to be a problem, as Turkey seems set to move into the city.
The YPG captured Manbij from ISIS with heavy US backing. Turkey objected that the Kurdish group should not control the Arab majority city, and has been threatening to attack it since. The US and Turkey made a deal this week agreeing that they, the US and Turkey, will share control over the city, and the Kurds will be expelled.
It appears no one consulted the Manbij Military Council, however, or the Arab administrators of the city in general. Officials say in the statement they’re still waiting for “clarification” from the US on what’s actually happening, and this is coming as Kurdish forces are already on the move away from the city.
From the YPG’s perspective this was likely a simple decision. They couldn’t hold Manbij away from Turkey without US support, and the US deal shows they don’t have it. What happens next is more of a concern for the locals, though clearly those locals weren’t asked or well informed about this process, and seem to be stuck with whatever the US decided for them.
Concern about the Turkey takeover shouldn’t be surprising, either, as Turkey is incredibly hostile toward the YPG, and will almost certainly treat the YPG’s (former) allies in Manbij as an unwelcome presence in a Turkey-administered territory.
Manbij Military Council, please. US/Kurdish crestion to mske it appear Arabs and Kurds are allies and running city together. One can always find some Arabs, for money or under pressure, to accept US/Kurdish rule. Arab population cannot accept US/Kurdish rule, and cannot wait for Turkey to be in charge. Finally Arabs that were forced out of the city will return.
This stunt is a desparate footdragging — but will have no influence in events. It is very clear from all sources that Arabs of the city, as well as Turkmen, cannot wait for YPG to depart. Manbij is just a pilot — other towns and villages under US and YPG control may be put under similar arrangement. Kurds — if indeed things proceed the way it appears, will not have much influence left outside their majorityy areas. But it is early to predict the US decision making process. The rationale for staying outside Kurdish areas, seems thin. While US is nursing a refugee camp under its control, not allowing UN or anybody else entry into the camp — it is still not enough to claim some ISIS. resurrection. And an excuse to stay.
Manbij residents will never accept the Turks. The main idea is to have the residents pledge loyalty to the Assad government to avoid being annexed by a foreign country.
I like your style.Quick and to the point. No useless over-explaining with made up facts with anonymous sources a.k.a.the internet with assessments that never bear fruit. It’s refreshing to see somebody else on this forum that deals in reality and not it’s own version of it.
Bianca give it up already. Didn’t you predict a Turkish invasion into Manbij in which ,NATO allies would fight each other and, Turkey and it’s proxies would force the Americans out? Stop acting like you’re so informed ,anyone can go back to the archives on this forum and see how ,truly wrong you are on your assessments and, how nothing you say ever comes true. Nobody knows what’s going to happen!!!It’s a warzone with multiple factions fighting for there people’s best interests. So please spare the I wish I was a professor act already, it’s quite old.
Really!? You come here with your flag-wrapped “Rah! Rah! USA!” boosterism and then challenge Bianca’s credibility? That’s rich.
Bianca might do well to run her postings through a spell-checker, but other than that, she has you thoroughly out-classed.
That’s too funny….It’s as funny as the people who believed Trump would drain the swamp in Washington that voted for him.It’s as funny as the Russians who helped him win the elections that thought they could get their sanctions lifted. It’s as funny as the people who believed Trump would make Mexico pay for a wall on the southern border. It’s as funny as the people who believe Edward Snowden was a hero for, fleeing to our adversary nation’s with classified data and, revealing the N.S.A. is spying on us while ,they allow this website’s commenting system to spy on your phone using “Persistent Cookies “software . As for being proud to be an American yes I am because,even though our system isn’t perfect it beats being in Russia,Iran, North Korea and China where cracking jokes about their leaders can get you killed. Rah,Rah,Rah…
I don’t know if Manbijis want to remain part of Syria and feel that they are its citizens, but if they do want to remain in Syria, they’d surely like to be protected or ruled by the Syrian govt.
Does anyone else think the new Disqus information collecting policy is to intrusive? I can’t believe Antiwar would actually allow Disqus to keep operating it’s forum after ,seeing what it takes just to comment on this site. It’s extremely intrusive and ,it’s data collection policies stating it can sell and share your personal information with foreign companies is extremely alarming. I thought Antiwar was about supporting the rights and privacy rights of the people commenting on there platforms,so why are they allowing Disqus to basically spy on our phone’s using ,”Persistent Cookies “a term coined by companies which a software is embedded into your cellphones software and ,can be activated long after you’re not on this forum and ,can be used to monitor what you’re doing on your phone even when your not using it. Scary ,it should be.It’s how governments spy on the people commenting on these sites.Damn,Antiwar y’all really dropped the ball on this one.
We’re not allowing Disqus to spy on you. You are. If you don’t want to give Disqus your information, don’t give Disqus your information.
If there’s another commenting system you’d like to recommend, I’m all ears and will pass your suggestion on.
I am a bit fuzzy on how to avoid giving Disqus my information. And if I have inadvertently given my permission, is there avway to gind out my status, and get out — if possible. Hope somebody has more info.
Well, the easiest way to avoid giving Disqus your information is to not have a Disqus account and to not comment on sites which use Disqus.
A more difficult way to avoid giving Disqus your information would be to use a fake name, a throwaway email address, and a proxy server to create a Disqus account and to make sure to use that login and a proxy when using that account.
There are also browser extensions which can limit both the collection of your information and the use of that information to reach you with annoying targeted advertising.
Everything comes with a cost. When it comes to “free” web services, the important thing to remember is that you are not the customer — you are the product. The customers are advertisers who want to reach people with information matching yours.
I’m not sure of another way to comment but,I know it never asked me to check 3 boxes, one of them to share and collect my data before commenting as a guest until a week ago.The “Persistent Cookies ” is a tool used to spy on the people commenting on these sites. I know you understand the risk it puts people in who would like to engage on this forum and the consequences it could have. No one wants to be on a target list and have their computers or cell phones hacked and monitored for expressing themselves on Antiwar . Mr.Knapp please figure out a way to protect the people commenting on this forum and our personal information.
I’ve already told you how to protect yourself. I’m not your nanny.
Sounds a lot like when the Western powers gave Palestine to the Zionists in 1948 screw what the population desired.
Long-term, this is a good thing, since it will lead to even more people understanding and accepting that our government (i.e. criminal gang) can’t be trusted on ANYTHING. That the word of any politician/criminal is totally worthless. The faster this process takes place, the sooner the collapse of the state can occur, ridding us of our criminal masters.
I most certainly did NOT predict that. I predicted many things, correctly, if I am allowed to brag a little. Predictions are NOT a crystal ball. They are based in knowledge if many factors, more the better. I predicted that Turkey will go ahead with Afrin. I predicted YPG was not a force capable of holding Turkey back. While many assumed, based in a regular diet of Kurdish fighting might fed by our media — that Turkey would never get through the mountain terrain and pacify YPG. Why did I guess otherwise? Because YPG is American supported group that defeated or exiled leaders of other parties, and has no large popular support. In fact, population wanted deal with Damacus, but YPG refused to disarm or join Syrian forces. YPG refused to turn over government functions. In the end, Turkey made it all irrelevant. Non-YPG groups would take power and cut a deal with Damascus. But for now — Turkey is continuing standoff with YPG and US. Remember, I said that Manbij is not important of itself, but will be a means of achieving US-Turkey understanding throughout Northern Syria. For now, Afrin is no longer a conveyer belt of supplies to Idlib and once upon a time, Aleppo Nusra Front.
For now, Turkey holds Jarabulus-Al-Bab corridor — taken with Russian Air Force help.
This insures absolute control of key geographic positions. Manbij is Turkey’s target for two reasons: to demonstrate to Syrians that a majority Arab town will not remain under Kurds, and that ethnic cleansing would not stand. Lest you forgot, US pounded Manbij in the name of fighting ISIS, but just like in Raqqa, the goal was to cause flight of civilians — and upon Kurds marching in, many Arabs were kicked out of their homes. This was reported even in our otherwise politically well directed media. Of course, the key fighting ISIS forces left Manbij for Raqqa. Just as they were later allowed to move from Raqqa into the protective US corner of Deir Azzor. In every US-Kurd town being held by ISIS placeholders, US facilitated establishment of Kurd-Arab military councils. In reality, Kurds controlled all these Euphrates valley towns and villages without having Kurd population there. This structure held until Turkey announced that it intends to mive alind Syrian border all the way up to Iraqi border, meaning Kurd primary stronghold, Kobane. At that point, Kurds spread thin accross US controlled area started pulling forces back to Kobane region.
I predicted that as well. Knowing demography of the region is key. US could not hope to establish an order of Kurdish rule over the region against adamant Arab objection.
For your info — Arab leaders throughout US controlled area met two weeks ago — and asked US forces to leave. Raqqa leaders are trying to get some outside help, in spite of Kurds still pretending they rule over Raqqa. All the population in the region wants to return under Damascus rule, except Kurds. And even Kurds are not happy with YPG carrying US banner, forgetting the reality of their region.
Which brings us back to Manbij. Turkey was always clear about what it wanted. Kurds, that is YPG out of town, return city to its Arab population. Turkey always offered US a possibility of them jointly conducting peacekeeping until elections. If they could do it in Manbij, they could do it elsewhere. US does not like it because: a/ Turkey wants Syria to stay territorially unchanged, and foreign, uninvited troups out after peace settlement, b/Turkey is a member of troika (Russia, Iran amd Turkey) that are brokering peace settlement), thus US does not want to be tied by Turkey’s agenda in the name of “joint” peacekeeping, c/ Kurds will havevto be abandoned, unless US insists on protecting its last enclave, Kobane. But US really prefers to stay closer to Syria/Iraq/Jordan border — and unfortunatelly there are no Kurds there, and no malleable Arab firces, then all-purpose ISIS.
The ultimate decision for US is to either occupy that piece of territory, or leave it — by letting some of it go under government control, and some under Turkish peacekeeping. The strategic ambiguity between Damascus and Turkey allows for flexibility. Thus, Damascus can be “unhappy” with Turkey’s stand on Kurds, while being the primary beneficiary of Turkish intervention in area where Syria would have been forced to fight US supported Kurds. And because of the ambivalence of Damascus- Ankara relations, Turkey can demand that all foreign (read, uninvited) troups leave, which would besides Turkey mean US.
Fir as long as we remember that this is a proxy war, with US and its committed allies, Israel, France and UK, are on one side, and Russia, Iran and Turkey in the other. Other actors are standing buy. Of which I would only mention China and Egypt as significant, and both of them on the side of Damascus. And while Iraq is already collaborating with Damascus, US reliable ally Jordan is at a breaking point. They say it is economy. Sure. But US should be concerned. With well over 50% of Palestinian population, large Iraqi and Syrian refugee population — the Kingdom’s continued support of US in the region is about to be challenged. It is Jordan US cannot afford to lose — not Syria.
At some point all regionsl issues that US is blocking from being resolved, will reach a point of no return. Status quo will not hold. Be that with or without US control. Looking at reality — with no pesimism or optimism, is the best guide to understanding probabilities of any future development.