Russian Deputy FM Mikhail Bogdanov announced Tuesday that officials from the US, Russia, and Jordan will be meeting soon to discuss the situation in southern Syria, and in particular the fate of the “de-escalation” zone in the area.
The Syrian Army is poised for an offensive against the rebels in the nation’s southwest, while the US has threatened “firm measures” against Syria if that offensive violates the de-escalation zone. Any major offensive almost certainly would involve violations of the de-escalation zone.
Russian officials are arguing that only Syrian government forces should be in the country’s south. Jordan has said they are confident that a deal will be reached to avoid any sort of unnecessary escalations in the south.
The de-escalation zones were initially meant to keep rival factions from engaging in endless fights to the detriment of the civilian populations in the area. With Syria having mopped up the rebels around Damascus, they are keep to expand this control to the southern border with Jordan and Israel, and if they did so, the zone would no longer serve any purpose.
On the other hand, the US backed the de-escalation zones specifically to protect the rebels from suffering such losses. They are likely to argue that the zones are giving an unfair advantage to the Syrian military by limiting the number of ongoing battles they have to face at one time.
I am not aware that US had ever stated that it wants to see Syria reunited; thus is, to avoid the coming battles between SAA and Daraa rebels, pushing for some political agreement between the two sides?
This is still a better solution than the SAA offensive and probably death to another 10k to 50k people.
The last paragraph is highly amusing. “Defeat in detail” is a time-tested and very effective military strategy.
Poor invading rebels- having to face the Syrian army in Syria.
Your map is old and inaccurate. It shows the “Homs Pocket” rebel enclave, and the “Ghouta” rebel pocket, both of which have now surrendered, and some 100,000 people (rebels and followers) were bussed north to Idlib. There WERE four “de-escalation” zones: Idlib, Derra, Homs, and Ghouta. Homs and Ghouta were over-run by the Syrian army in violation of the agreement. Rebels are now rebuilding forces in Idlib, consolidating militias. Syrian Army makes threats to attack Idlib too, and is massing forces in the North.
Yes, you sre right about msp accuracy. BUT — and this is a big but — de-escalation zones were set up to facilitate reconciliation snd reintegration agreements among many communities that formed their own militia to protect themselves. Many of them did it under favorable terms, receiving government budget for their local government, jobs, freedom of travel to government liberated areas for jobs, etc. However, in novdeescalatoon zones these privileges extend to either Al-Qaeda affilisted groups or ISIS snd their collaboratirs. US continues to act dumb on this point, and is predictably incensed whenever an anti-ISIS or anti-Al-Qaeda action is planned. The key reason for dees alation was and is — to allow local militia set up for self defence to assume duties of police, have their income, and NOT be forced to collaborate with the two UN designated terror groups. US, and UN under its influence, pretend the distinction does not exist — keep on supporting politically, feeding and arming these groups in violatikn of all known resolutions. These terrorist groups keep on harassing the population, and the groups that do not wish to cooperate with them. It is high time to attack both Al-Qaeda and ISIS leftovers, as population demands it. We are acting dumd, and pretend that the whole region is in peril, even though ISIS and Al-Qaeda are localized. That game was played in Goutha. And US is itching to see the onset of Idlib, so new White Helmets propaganda chemical attacks videos are already being filmed. UN will scream bloody murder to allow Syria pass for UN trucks, even though like in Goutha or Yarmouk, all supplies go into Al-Qaeda warehouses and their local allies.
While Jordanian border must be sealed, there is no rush in Idlib. With Turkey now controlling Afrin, there are no more generous supplies from US, accross Turkish Kurd territory to Afrin, and then to Iib and central Syria. Now, while the groups are fighting, there is nothing that can be done. Russia and Turkey have checkpoints in and arround Idlib — allowing for cililians to get out of conflict areas. In the end — they will have to surrender in Idlib. It will require patience.
Well thank you for the thoughtful and knowledgeable comment. Teach me some more sometime.