Turkey has been complaining about US support for the Kurdish YPG for years, and this weekend, that has boiled down to an overt ultimatum, with Turkey’s Foreign Ministry demanding the US immediately withdraw from the Syrian city of Manbij.
The US helped the YPG capture Manbij early last year, and Turkey has been mad because their position is the Kurds can have no territory west of the Euphrates River. Though Manbij is on the river, it is primarily on the western bank.
With Turkey’s recent invasion of the Afrin District, they’ve made it clear that Manbij will be their second target in the invasion. This could be a potential problem, since the US has troops in the city, which were put there in the first place to preclude a Turkish invasion.
In recent days, Turkish officials have suggested they are willing to not only invade whether the US leaves or not, but suggested that US troops would be targeted if they continue to help the Kurds in the city.
This risks being a long-term issue for the US beyond Manbij, however, as Turkey has said all of Syrian Kurdistan is a target, and all US troops in Syria are deployed into Kurdish territory, meaning this could boil down to Turkey forcing a US pullout.
Turkey is claiming a US concession already made, in that the US supposedly has pledged a halt to all arms for the Kurds. This is a long-standing Turkish demand, but the US has yet to confirm that this indeed will be the case.
Somehow I’m not seeing Erdogan intimidating the U.S. war machine, and he does not appear to have troops ready to roll.
Its like a wasp stuck in an orb spider web buzzing loudly as the spider descends.
I agree America has assets in place that could cripple Turkey and make it very costly if they act against America’s military. I pray Erdogan doesn’t over play his hand and end up in a position where no country can save you. We have Trump as president and I know he wouldn’t hesitate to order America’s military to annihilate the threat Erdogan that means you.
with what ? I think you need to check on Turkey’s military capabilities. The US is in no position to challenge them there.
Not the picture I see.. If the American are there in sufficient force, I don’t think Erdogan would be talking the was he is.. As in GTFOH…..
We’re not the ones threatening anyone it’s Erdogans Turkey first approach that’s causing this mess. I gotta say all those issues you brought up might be time for a distraction. Erdogans is the Kurds, Putin’s was Syria, hope Erdogan not Turkey doesn’t become America’s distraction.
The galactic empire is reading from the Roman Empire playbook. Few Centurion soldiers attacked and took over weaker states followed by training the new occupied state with Roman Centurions and running the new proxy Roman army. Roman then would use the new Roman proxy army to attack other weaker states.
But when it came other worthy empires like the Persians, they just couldn’t do the job.
Can the galactic empire wipe the Turks? Of course, But that’s an all out war neither the Turks or the galactic empire want. For us, it’ll be the end to silos and the airbases near Ru.ss.
At this point, it’s too late for the galactic empire to send in the troops. This should’ve happened under the guise of killing I.S.I.S. back in 2014. Now it’ll look like a full blown invasion without any reason.
I also think they will stall until election year followed by another distraction to get us back in Syria.
Good grief, they haven’t even beaten the Taliban with Afghan government proxies helping them.
The only force that the US has beaten in a hundred years is Granada. (Because the three police were out fishing that day.)
I know that it makes you feel all ‘Macho’ but the US forces are a joke.
Against an army they would not last an hour. Do you think that the other NATO forces would join against Turkey? Have you been smoking that stuff again?
US can bomb people from a distance, but as a military, don’t make me laugh.
Yes America’s military is a joke that’s why they’ve set up 5 bases inside Syria with zero fatalities. If America is so weak why hasn’t anyone made a move on those bases? Go sell that Kool aid to someone else because I ain’t buying it.
No, not zero fatalities. Reported fatalities are close to zero, but not quite that low. Unreported fatalities are, of course, unreported.
Yes Mr. Knapp because I guess now the new conspiracy theory is the USA isn’t reporting fatalities even though they’ve been doing it for years.
The US Department of Defense reports fatalities among uniformed members of the armed forces and certain contractor (e.g. cooks on bases).
My impression is that the US has been using a lot more of the deniable kind of contractors in the last decade and a half than they did back when I was in (but even back then they used a few). Since they won’t be admitting the existence of those contractors if they can help it, they won’t be reporting deaths among those contractors either. It’s not a conspiracy theory, it’s just a banal observation of reality.
I understand kinda how Russia is using the Wagner Group in Syria to fight and how they aren’t obligated to return the bodies of the Russians fighting on the behalf of Syria. Have you read the story in the Daily Beast called “Russia’s Blackwater” by Anna Nemtsova it shows how government’s are using these contract mercenaries most former soldiers. Very interesting stuff.
They happen to be busy killing off the US proxies that the US ‘Warriors’ are hiding behind.
However, once the paid mercenaries are dispatched then the US will have two options; run or be killed.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” Napoleon. Iraq, Afghanistan, Viet Nam, Syria and on and on. As much as it pains me to watch I have nothing but infinity to wait.
Cold blooded geopolitical calculus suggests Erdogan’s earned a bullet to the head for daring to look out for Turks over U.S./Western hegemony, but he probably figures he’s been dead man walking for a while. Destroying Turkey… eventually U.S. real geopolitik may require it.
Erdogan attacking the U.S. military; no, otherwise Erdogan would have gone straight into Manbij and secured the easier target. By making threats after entering Afrin he can bluff more seriously and try to coax the U.S. out of Manbij. His red line has always been the Euphrates; American Kurdistan is a stretch.
Turkey could still have and still can (if he had the forces lined up) invade around U.S. forces. There only seem to be a couple of U.S. bases west of the Euphrates. That Erdogan won’t accept even a slight risk of U.S. casualties says a lot already about his intentions versus his rhetoric.
Its also a mistake to assume the U.S. would overtly militarily punish Turkey, a formal ally.
American retaliation would not likely be overt war, it would be frenemy games where Erdogan and Turkey have no chance. It would be ugly hybrid war, with terrorist attacks, financial attacks, internet hacks, covert sponsorship of severe social unrest, diplomatic and trade slights and a global media smear campaign.
Already some media are trying to play up the International Brigades of Western foreign fighters going in to fight for Afrin Kurds. However, no sign that this is Seige of Kobani II (because its not).
The relatively calm and somewhat mixed American reaction suggests the U.S. wants Erdogan in Afrin. They do not appear at all surprised or nearly as upset as they should be.
As So quoted Napoleon, “Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake”. Especially when you set up the mistake.
Except, who’s really making the mistake? Candidate Trump was always right when he warned Obama, “Stay out of Syria”.
INCIRLIK……..Whats the value of that to the US?
Maybe its time to think about the cost of illegally occupying foreign countries.
It’s strategic in the containment of Russia.
Its like Cowboy says; strategic in the containment of Russia but also operationally useful in regional ops. The U.S. is not in Turkey illegally.
Technically the U.S. and Turkey are NATO allies, the purpose of NATO being neatly summed by its first Secretary General Hastings Ismay, “To keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down.”
Ismay did not add “… and the Turkey plucked”. That seems to be a postmodern corollary.
It’s going to be interesting to see how the Turkish resentment on the Gulan issue, combined with the “surprise”
I agree no one knows what’s going to happen I pray cooler heads prevail. I must say this is a nightmare scenario for all parties involved.
The US will shun the Kurds the same way they did in Iraq.
This is all distraction propaganda. Either way, this land is taken from the Syrians. Turkey’s Golan Heights, a sustained war fueled by, the USG. The YPG is trained by USG, and the FSA (also by USG) on Turkey side just creating turmoil and stealing land from Syria for sustained conflict. Here is the thing, sustained conflict does not need to be conquered, in-fact it is better off remaining unresolved. This is classic strategy similar to the Mexican standoff. US CIA is all over this and they have achieved their goal (land grab) and now they will have sustained conflicts across Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Looks like US is building another hornets nest to sell weapons and launder money while they spend some time, oh like the the next 100 years in Syria.
Bear in mind that before the US deployed into Kurdish areas (which is only recent) those areas had deals with Assad that allowed them autonomy and defense forces. Assad’s deal provided only they fought to keep out ISIS, which is the same thing the US wants of them now.
The Kurds are both fragmented, and on all sides of this fight. “The Kurds” is in act a simplification used to distort.
The important takeaway from this turn of events is that a jumped up third world power like Turkey feels itself strong enough to give ultimatums to a gargantuan empire like the US, and the “leader” of the NATO alliance, no less.. What does that tell us about the standing of the US internationally?
Yes a country that’s been at war with the Kurds is pissed because a stronger country is arming it’s enemies on it’s borders and is doing something about it. In your mind that’s a big deal, in reality it’s what any other country would do to protect it’s interests.
Itvs a big deal because a relatively weak supposed NATO ally is making military ultimatums to the US. Only to a blinkered moron like yourself would that be small potatoes.
Yes and it’s like the fly threatening the spider…. In your mind Erdogan did something, last time I checked American troops haven’t left…. Only a moron would pretend that had any effect.
Only a moron would pretend they can’t have any effect. The very fact that the threat was made shows that the US empire is no longer respected. I thought a fake macho type like you might grasp that. But I guess you don’t put any brains into your act.
The larger issue is Putin is arming his neighbors with sub par tech. and making a boat load of gold doing it. Meanwhile he is strengthening his economy, military, and building alliances. Iran and Pakistan are supporting the “Taliban.” More border strategy. The sooner America leaves the sooner Putin can take over.. again..
Syria is not part of the usa or of Turkey. Stop manufacturing crises. Get the hell outta; there and leave the Syrian people and THEIR country alone.
Amen.
Trump is commander of U.S .armed forces now . He might not be very obedient to Turkish ultimatums . I don’t think he will back down from helping the Kurds that defeated ISIS for him . The Kurds have asked for Assad’s help . If Assad comes to protect his border from Turkey and the United States sticks with the Kurds . we will have officially changed sides .About time to finally be on the right side for a change .