With some important gains made against ISIS in Deir Ezzor in the past couple of weeks, Syria’s allies are presenting the war as nearing absolute victory. Hezbollah declared victory in the war already, while Russia said Syria was well on its way to defeating ISIS outright.
The claims of progress may be getting ahead of themselves, however, with Russia claiming Syria had cleared 85% of the country of rebels. This claim appears demonstrably false, as all credible maps of territory show the Syrian government well short of that.
It’s not clear where the 85% reckoning came from in the first place, though the Kurdish YPG holds well over 15% of the country by themselves, and if not “rebels” certainly are not on good terms with the government.
At the same time, its undeniable that ISIS has lost a lot of territory in recent months, and a lot of that territory has fallen to the government’s forces. Still, territory lost has more ISIS defenses building around certain areas of its remaining territory, making further pushes more difficult.
“Syria reclaims 85 percent of territory from ‘Islamic State,’ says top Russia general”
So it’s not 85% of Syrian territory but it’s either 85% of the territory that has been recovered from ISIS or 85% of the area occupied by ISIS. Two totally different numbers from the former..
Your source, DW, is misquoting the Russian general for its usual nefarious reasons. Now the rest of the western MSM will do the same.
Ghost ship addressed the 85% remark. The linked article re-states one of the biggest MSM lies of all time
In the Charlie Rose 60 Minutes interview aired days before the Russian bombing campaign, Putin said [paraphrasing], ‘we are their to support the legitimate govt of Syria, to help them fight ALL terrorists, including ISIS and Al Qaeda, and to encourage them to reach out to the healthy portions of the opposition’ [caps/bold added for emphasis]
https://charlierose.com/videos/22696#
There was never an ISIS only pledge, the Russians were never deceitful about their goals. The MSM simply repeated false assertions made by our State Dept and Pentagon because they were too lazy to check with the Russians even though it was broadcasted on national TV. This shows you why you cannot trust our MSM.
I will never forgive our MSM and believe that God will be handing out punishments in the afterlife, not for being wrong, but for being unprofessional and criminally negligent in their basic tasks.
God bless Volodya Putin, the most wrongly slandered leader on the planet.
In fact, reading the transcript from the speech of a Russian general in Syria, he stated correctly that 85% of Syria is under Givernment control. And it is correct. The maps show the de-conflict areas, areas controlled by Turkish military, ISIS and Idlib. The yellow areas are really not controlled by SDF — not even close. The area actually represents accurately US area of air operations, the actual division between Russian and coalition air coverage. Let’s talk about Kurds, as they are over 90% of SDF. They do not have the size of the military fir any major operations, especially in Arab majority regions. Many Arab commanders defected already to Syrian forces. Kurds are less then 10% of population. Realistically, based on older data, even 8%. More robust numbers of 15% are more recent, and arbitrary. Even if you take higher number, a majority of Kurds live in big cities. The largest concentration of Kurds are in Afrin area in north-west, and Kobane-Hassakah in north-east. They are not connected mainly due to Turkish army operations that cleared border from excuse-giving ISIS presence in Jarabulus, to Al-Bab, where they linked up with Syrian Army. Kurds were stopped from expanding their control of Turkish border, and from connectingbto Kobane Kurds. This area under Turkish control is actually under Damascus control, as these operations are not outside peace plan approved by Russia -Turkey and Iran.
The three existing de-conflict zones are functioning on the basis of agreement with Damascus, and managed by Russian reconciliation Center. The local l groups are set up as local governments, with policing authority, no interference by Sirian Army, and are functioning as humanitarian supply administration, as well as coordinating with Damascus on restoring infeastructure. The bittom line, they are already campaigning for elections. But they need to prove themselves. Their policing includes fighting of any provocations by those seeking to disrupt peace. So far, three zones function really good. The last, fourth zone in Idlib will be tough, and is a subject of this week’s Astana meeting. This area is not yet under any form of Government control, even though some groups from Idlib participate in Astana. This area, as well as area CONTROLLED by Kurds and remaining ISIS — are the actual 15% not under control.
Kurds are now actually fighting Arab resistance in Raqqa, not really ISIS. The massive attack on civilians and civilian infrastructure has resulted in high number of refugees. I do not blame Kurds or US for trying to dislidge ISIS, and some of it resulting in civilian loss of life. But I blame Kurds and US for establushing Kurdish administration, and pushing Kurdish school curricula including Kurdish language in majority Arab areas of Raqqa. All Damascus has to do is to be silent, and allow population to get acquainted with US and Kurdish ethnic cleansing practices, and cultural agression. This is already resulting in many local
Arab grouos self organizing. Kurds do not allow Assad pictures in majority Arab areas of Raqqa, even though he is popular there, and Kurds are hated.
So, in reality, yes. Government controls all areas that have accepted Givernment terms, as well as all areas where Givernment is assured of support — barring outright oppression over Arabs in region across Euphrates. I do not think US is interested in that. It may turn blind eye to Kurds ethnuc cleansing in Manbij, and now Raqqa. But past some point, Kurds will be more of a problem then an asset. Shiuld Idlib zone be set up, only Al-Qaeda will remain to be surrounded and defeated. After that — ISIS over Euphrates becomes the enemy. Russian pinton bridges are being set up.
Syria and Kurds will have to negotiate in the end. If the population is alliwed to vote in these yellow areas, they will be not voting for Kurds, but want to be under Damascus.
Looking at maps can be deceiving, if one does not know what it actually means.
That’s right and let’s not forget that large swathes of land in the eastern areas, or most of it really, is infertile desert and semi desert.
Unless it contains oil wells or important roads you won’t obviously find SAA nor US or US cutthroats defending it. Cut that part out of the map and out becomes more accurate.
Of course, this is the key. Transportation infrastructure, oil, water, dam — all of interest to those that want to put a large toll booth between Iraq and Syria, and indirectly between Turkey and the Middle East, between Iraq and Qatar and European markrts, etc.
To that end an illusion is maintained on all maps. Colored yellow. While this is the area of US coalition air control, not much has been done against ISIS, until Syrian government defeated Al -Qaeda in Aleppo.
US air control is NOT the same as SDF control, And SDF, majority of fighters being Kurds from Kobane region, are NOT In control of extensive area ANYWHERE. In fact, all larger towns and villages they liberated from ISIS with air support, are for Kurds HOSTILE TERRITORY. Local Arab population DOES NOT want to be ruled by Kurds. It us a simple msthematics. The further Kurds go outside their majority Kurdish enclave, the more soldiers they need for occupying and holding onto Arab towns and villages. And also, they must take into consideration the sacrifices, the growing hatred of population against their rule — when in fact Kurds may not be allowed to keep areas once free voting is restored. So, I would like to see a map of two separate Kurdish enclaves — in different colors. Afrin Kurds ARE NOT PARTICIPATING IN SDF. Afrin region contains a number of DISTRICTS where they are majority, but are NOT a majority in either Aleppo or Idlib governorates.
And, I would like to see the yellow area accross Euphrates divided in three colors. One for Kurd dominated districts, like Kobane. Another color for current military SDF engagement outside Kurd areas, that is, occupying Arab majority areas. And, third color for areas into which SDF has no control, and has no reason to occupy. Chrrently, there are small detachments of Kurds with US forces making a push against ISIS — but they have no resources to hold, and force population to come under Kurdish rule. All those Arab areas, either under Kurd rule, or fear advancement of Kurds, cannot be shown as SDF territory.
This is wrong on too many levels, and just confuses thevresders that think Kurds have a mighty military, and are ruling over the entire yellow territor. Vast majority of population wants to remain part if Syria, not some future reversed Kosovo, ruled by a minority over majority. US ndocons were counting on Arab population to join Kurds against Assad. This is ehy I have a feeling that voting in this area will not be allowed for a while. But if US gets out of temptation of nation building, we will see rapid changes politicaly and on the batterfield.
it’s not the bare land that matters but the concentrations of armed groups.
ISIS has no future in Syria.