Over the weekend, the offensive against ISIS on the Lebanon-Syria border ended with a ceasefire that amounted to ISIS surrendering the territory, and their remaining fighters, along with any civilians that wished, being evacuated into the Deir Ezzor Province. Buses were to start moving the fighters this week.
US officials are expressing outrage at the deal, and indeed at the notion of any deal, with US Special Envoy Brett McGurk demanding that all of the ISIS fighters “should be killed on the battlefield,” and that busing was inappropriate for them.
McGurk went on to say that the US-led coalition would “ensure that these terrorists can never enter Iraq or escape.” This was followed by US airstrikes against the highway, preventing the convoy from advancing.
This is not the first time McGurk has insisted the US policy on the ISIS war is that they must all be killed where they stand. In June, early in the ISIS invasion, McGurk said the US would ensure all ISIS fighters in Raqqa would die in Raqqa.
Though the deal was to put ISIS in Deir Ezzor, inside Syria, Iraq is loudly objecting to that on the grounds it’s closer to their border than where the ISIS forces are being evacuated from, saying that amounts to an “insult.” US officials seem to believe Iraq not only has the right to veto this deal, but that they can carry out military strikes to prevent the evacuation as a result.
Where this leaves the evacuation is unclear, as the US seems to be holding out for the massacre of 300+ ISIS fighters on the buses, and has threatened to attack the buses if they try to find a new route around the giant hole US warplanes created in the highway they were traveling on.
Well if this isn’t the pot calling the kettle black.
I’m kinda surprised the US didn’t bomb the buses directly, to save civilians by killing them.
No Gun Ri, Part Deux ?
What a joke the entire ISIS operation turned out to be. Here is an example of a major
comedy. US is objecting to ISIS being relocated with their families? The only objection US has is to the removal of ISIS from Lebanon border — and Syria/Lebanon border being secured. One less ISIS node on sensitive borders.
Now let us talk about relocating ISIS. US and its Syrian Democratic Forces, that is Kurds, organized many such relocations. I am aware of three large ones. In the last few months large movements of ISIS military assets in the direction of Drir Azzor were executed in plain view of US Airforce, across desert with no place to hide. When Syrian plane bombed them, US shot it down, complaining that Syrian plane endangered SDF. If one would take a view of US neocons (and many map makers help with this view) that everything across Euphrates is SDF territory, Syrian plane attacking ISIS was “endangering”. SDF. The crisis with Russia was at its height as it snnounced the intention to sroot down any objects within a certain range of its assets, practically declaring no fly zone. Ever since that time only Russian planes are bombing the attempts of ISIS to relocate. Why is US so cavalier anout ISIS pouring into Deir Azzor province? To hold Syrian Army at bay — and plodding to expand Kurdish rule over as much Syrian land across the river and create a roadblock to Iraqi-Syrian infrastructure, including Qatar-Iranian gas pipeline to Mediterranean.
But here is the problem. Kurds from Afrin cannot join the Kurds from Kobani as Turkish-Syrian corridor between Al-Bab and Turkish border. Afrin Kurds are routinely whining about being attacked by Turkey — but it is another way around. They are feeling the defences. So, here is the mega problem for US plan to control the east of Euphrates. SDF are mostly Kurds — so how can they occypy vast territory inhabited mostly by Arabs, both Syrian and Iraqi. Defeating ISIS is a minor problem — and as we saw in the last few months — there was precious little fighting against ISIS,. ISIS is nothing more then a placeholder for Kurdish expansion. Because of this, ISIS was allowed to leave with arms from Manbij, Tabha, and Raqqa. ISIS is commiting large scale crimes against local population — depriving them of organization and leadership to resist Kurdish takeover. Thousands were allowed to leave Manbij. But US bombed Manbij irrespective of ISIS withdrawal — causing massive exodus from the city. This allowed Kurds — a tiny minority in Manbij — to occupy the city, and in spite of solemn promises by US that they will withdraw — Kurds still are the occupiers. Same formula was applied to a number of ISIS held towns and cities. Let us look at Raqqa. ISIS left long time ago — what is left are locals trying to fight Kurds off. Local resistance is forming everywhere, alowing Syrian Army to inch closer to Raqqa and now about 30 miles out of Deir Azzor.
So, thousands of ISIS fighters and their heavy guns have been let go out of Raqqa, while we bomb civilians, hoping they flee — and local resistance to evaporate. Manbij method. But getting out into westernly direction will be tricky. Kurds will be far from home, and know that US is not likely to gift them so mych territory. There is disagreement in their ranks. Also, the small Arab component dies not want to give Murds legitimacy and are incteasingly defecting. Last month two Arab SDF commanders and their units defected to Syrian Army. So, while ISIS is allowed to move unmolested to fortify Deir Azzor strangulation — Kurds are fighting inhabitants of once ISIS occupied towns and villages — calling them ISIS. In fact, this is easy to prove — let US show ONE Kurd “luberated” place where the happy population welcomed Kurdish occupation. None is the answer. Then why fhe fuss of ISIS relication by Syria? It ruins neat plans for bringing in ISIS friendlies to hold land as needed. This ISIS Awill not cooperate as it reached a deal with Syria. They will stay put. But even without this complication — the ISIS fighting plan is a joke. Somebody tell Trump what is really going in.
His generals have a plan of their own. And it has nothing to do with fighting ISIS. Now they are fighting local resistance to Kurdish occupatiom and call them ISIS. Such an easy switch. Like calling Afghan tribes “Taliban”, meaning students. Taliban were indeed studenrs of religious schools set up by Saudi Arabia in Pakistan. But they disappeared ever since US toppled their rule. Ever since we fight local resistance and still call them “students”. It will be increasingly hard to maintain the ISIS story, especially if Syria approaches Deir Azzor patiently and builds alliances with local population. The ranks of Syrian military have been swelling by lical tribal resistance. But locals are not experienced and are hasty — giving ISIS some easy victories. But this is a political learning curve — as population realizes the extent of ISIS-Kurush-US coordination. Especially in places where ISIS killed all local leaders prior to exiting in full view od SDF. The proof is out there — how about town by town, village by village indication of SDF liberated places. Their ethnic composition and the SDF ability to secure peace, delivery of humanitarian aid — and the degree of local population control over their affairs. Outside of Kurd majority areas, or those rhat hsve bedn ethnically cleansed, I know if not one.