Yesterday, Pentagon officials were talking up ongoing negotiations on keeping permanent US troops in Iraq after the ISIS war, which they claimed everybody in the Iraqi government was in favor of. They conceded that the specifics had yet to be worked out and no deal was reached yet.
Their claim of Iraqi support may have been a bit exaggerated, as it was followed up today by comments, by Prime Minister Hayder Abadi ruling out the presence of any US combat troops in Iraq after the ISIS war, insisting that only a small number of trainers would be allowed to remain.
On the other hand, it’s not clear how serious Abadi’s comments are meant to be taken, as he also claimed in the same statement that there are “no foreign combat troops” in Iraq might now, so he might just be hand-waving away the long-term deployments.
Indeed, other Iraqi officials insisted that the law requires combat troops to be approved by parliament, which is why they’ve long avoided admitting that the US troops are combat troops, and that this designation would remain after the war.
Maybe he’ll let them stay if the SOFA says they’re subject to Iraqi law. GOP blame Obama for withdrawing troops as a result of that provision. Will US be more willing to go along with that now that a Republican is in the WH?
Yes, that was the issue in 2011. El Sadr will make sure that “subject to Iraqi law” will be in the new SOFA.
I understand that new SOFA was signed after ISIS knocked on Baghdad door, and former president unceremoniously dumped. However, nothing is set in stone, and after less then stellar performance of US advisors and military in the war on ISIS — much has changed. US has permanently alienated Shia population, alienated Sunni by not helping them in any way — and by bombing many civilian Sunni targets, lost them as well. Kurds in Iraq were burned by US “help” way too many times. The last round in liberating Sinjar to help poor Yazidis — US held Peshmerga out of Sinjar after they fought for it, and installed Iraqi PKK to run the town. So much for poor Yazidi. It was merely a footnote recently in the news, but Turkey ousted PKK from Sinjar, to the delight of Kurdish Peshmerga. The little town is on direct line Mosul, Raqqa, Aleppo. Turkey is now controlling a checpoint through which both Turkish Kurds, ISIS and Al-Qaeda smuggled weapons and other goods.
Any segment of Iraqi population in favor of US presence in Iraq? Any minority hence undiscovered needs protection in our galactic quest for interplanetary human rights. Who knows. But on the other hand, one can always find some poor souls that will for some pecuniary advantage sell their souls. But no region can hope for a luck that US. and EU minions have in Balkans. A permanently criminal state of Albania spreading its wings into Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Greece. Happiness is having such clients that live of crime, drugs, weapons and human trafficking — and will willinly share proffits with their benefactors, could not care less for national interest or population, and ready to start violence at the drop of a hat. With Saudi money and Albanian know how — our neocons cannot be any happier.
But in Iraq and Syria — less luck. Only Turkish Kurds are willing to take the role of Albanians and start new Kosovo quests in favor of its paymasters. But they got a match in Erdogan who is not planning to appologize for keeping his territory under Turkish sovereignty. The dillema for US in Iraq is — it cannot win. If peace breaks out, it has zero purpose, and cannot remain an occupier. If violence continues, there is a risk that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf enablers become a target. It is an extremely easy target — as only family members rule, and rank and file soldiers are in most cases foreign mercenaries. Wealthy elite is loyal only to its wealth, and is highly diversified in investments to keep money safe. So, playing all on Saudi card — and pretty much against everybody else in the Middle East — is highly dangerous. Israel with all of its nukes, cannot defend itself in the case of Saudi regime collapse. I am sure Trump will offer moon to Egypt and to visiting Erdogan, but then he would ask for too much. And the faith and credit of US to keep its promises is gone — in both of those countries. They are looking for more reliable partners to anchor their future hopes on.
Thus, the only way for US to win is to insure that all the terrorist infrastructure is dismantled, and Saudi Arabia stopped in its meddling in Yemen and Bahrain, and its swipes at Egypt and Iran. Then, US should declare a win, and with gratefull Iraq and Syria, withdraw all military, except any assistance Iraq may ask and pay for. With good relationships restored, it is hoped that new generations may have a better opinion of US. We should then guard against all and any neocon imperial ambitions that destroyed our treasure and reputation, not to mention sent millions to their premature death. Hopefully in time we will be forgiven.
Well I guess that means that the ISIS war will never be over