After capturing the Syrian city of al-Bab from ISIS, Turkish officials made it clear that the next military target was the city of Manbij, along the Euphrates River. Manbij was captured last year from ISIS by the Kurdish YPG, with considerable US military support.
Turkey had long insisted that Kurds aren’t allowed west of the river, where Manbij is, and the Obama Administration had assured Turkey that the Kurds would eventually withdraw from the city. They never did, and a deal between Syria and the YPG to cede nearby villages to the Syrian military aimed to block Turkish forces from advancing on the city. Now, US troops are joining in.
Pentagon officials say that a “small number” of US forces are being deployed to Manbij as “a visible sign of deterrence” aimed at preventing Turkey and the Kurds from fighting one another. Turkey hasn’t responded to the news, but is likely to be furious, as the deployment is inside Kurdish territory, and blocking their planned invasion.
The US has long faced the problem of being closely allied to the YPG in Syria, while Turkey, a NATO member, openly declares them a terrorist organization, and promises military attacks on them. The US seems to believe that direct deployments putting them in the way of the fighting would help, but it remains to be seen whether this will actually prevent Turkey’s attacks, or just shift them to different Kurdish territory.
As always America can only make things worse by getting involved. Let the Kurds and the Syrians take care of those Ottoman bastards. It’s what they do best.
This is a bit of bravado, not quite corresponding reality. Russian sources have been very accurate before, and have announced that US is sending humanitarian convoy protected by military — and asked for the permission from Syrian government and notified Russia. But the picture of US tank with US flag is what Kurds would like to emphasize. Following Trump election, Kurdish expectations have come down to earth. Expecting their state, promised by Hillary, they have already one month before election written their constitution, and a female brigade was advertised to be poised to take Al-Bab. Yet, not only have Turkey taken Al-Bab, but were poised to tackle Manbij. Now, this is a touchy situation. Kurds are now afraid that they may not get anything. Turkey has allied with Russia in getting Al-Bab, and in clearing the border of ISIS outposts. In order to prevent Turkey to go to Manbij, Kurds turned over a large section of their territory to Syrian Army, to prevent Turkish army’s advance. Yesterday, Turkey hailed the move. Turkey’s prime minister declared that Turkey does not mind if Syria is in charge of the city. US cannot just leave the ally — who can yet be useful — in a lurch, hence, a sudden humanitarian convoy, with US military vehicles accompanying them.
The issue is really not so much the city of Manbij — as Turkey knows full well, but the issue of taking physical control of Raqqa and Deir Azzor governorates where ISIS today rules. US must know that Kurds do not have the manpower nor the fire power to do it. Hillary knew it, and just wanted Kurds to be an excuse for getting US military into Syria and occupy Raqqa region. Turkey went into the war for this PRECISE REASON. In his comments to the nation, before getting into Syria, Erdogan said that Turkey will not allow great powers to have them trapped into Anatolia, without ability to connect to the Middle East. With Kurdish state on Syria/Iraq border, and with US promoting their statehood, that is PRECISELY what was happening. And Turkey wanted to put stop to it by advocating TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY OF SYRIA AND IRAQ. Thus, preventing new mini states to be formed, with foreign basis, and source of future instability in the region.
But times have changed. Trump is not in business of nation building. He will use Kurds, but cannot rely on them to either push ISIS out, as it does not have sufficient boots on the ground, or to maintain peace afterwards in the region where Arabs dislike Kurds and are afraid that Kurds will ethnically cleanse them like they did in Manbij, to expand their area. So, US must decide. If nation building is not in the cards, then it has to work with Turkey. It will be best of NATO member, Turkey, becomes a liberator from ISIS, and a peacemaker in the aftermath. But to do that — US needs to get some concessions from Turkey in terms of its relationship with Russia. This will be hard one, as Turkey cannot any longer live without commerce with Russia, Iran and China, as well as Russian energy and wheat supplies. So, there will be compromising, but I do not believe that it will affect Turkish-Russia relationship in substance.
Russia and Turkey have one common objective, and that is, the peace in Syria and Iraq should be set up with the participation of regional actors (Turkey and Iran), as well as US and Russia. They do not want to see another European entry into the Middle East. Now, that Manbij is in Turkish crosshairs, and the country side was turned over to Syria, while US humanitarian convoy is in the town — semblance of balance is achieved, keeping status quo. But the real issue will be — how will US approach getting ISIS out of Raqqa region. Syria may tackle Deir Azzor now that Palmyra has been secured. But the bulk of responsibility has been taken by US — after all, the skies over Raqqa have been guarded by US for years now. This is time to do something. And time to chose partner(s) in the endeavor. If the name Saudi Arabia pops up anywhere along the way, we may rest assured that ISIS will remain protected.
You have good grasp of the players and what’s going on- here’s my question, which I’ve had for some time: let’s say ISIS is ejected from Raqqa? Who then rules?
The Kurds can’t; it’s an Arab area. The locals can’t; they’re powerless. The Turks can’t- their supply lines through Kurdish territory would mean all-out war with the Syrian Kurds.
So who rules? Do the Americans liberate Raqqa and then turn it over to Assad? Would Turkey accept that? Who else could it be?
I think Turkey is taking too much for granted in dictating who can be where in Syria. They have no right to invade Syria in the first place and this will be more serious as the Syrian’s mop up the remaining insurgent mercenaries.
the Turks have no right but the Russians and the Americans and also Hezbollah and the Shiite militias from sixty different country’s have the right to invade and kill and destroy the country, who are you to decide who can invade and who can’t.
Does anyone suspect the recent clash between American client Iraqi Kurds and the YPG Kirds might have been accomplished by Washington using a combination of incentives & threats to get the Iraqi Kurds on the opposite site of YPG with the goal of them eventually becoming the Kurdish force on that front which might be temporarily acceptable to Turkey & it’s allies? It would also force Syrian Kurds to choose between working with Damascus or with the American & Iraqi aligned Peshmerga,
….With the Russians…
I want us to be friends with the Russians…
Us troops in Syria.
They got permission from Assad then or did they just march in?
American Exceptionalism means NEVER having to follow international law, respect national sovereignty, care about human life, etc.
Absolutely
Mass killers.
1000 ticks.
Playing with fire… what happens if Turkey decides a few US troops in the way had better just get out of the way if they want to stay alive? Would US leaders call in airstrikes on Turkish forces, or hang our own people out to dry?
Boots on the ground. Just friggin terrific.
The banksters who control our government never met a war they didn’t want to make a profit off of promoting.
The Turks aregoing to be facing-off against Syrian troops long before they see any Americans. Assad has his eye on blocking the coalition’s ‘safe zone’.