Major Islamist rebel faction Ahrar al-Sham has announced that several small Islamist factions in the Idlib Province have joined them as part of a new alliance aimed at fending off an offensive by al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front. The move follows Nusra virtually wiping out the Jaish al-Mujahideen, one of the factions which joined the Ahrar al-Sham coalition.
Though Ahrar al-Sham has presented itself as a “moderate Islamist” faction for years, and one with some international recognition, the leadership has been relatively open about being ideologically aligned with al-Qaeda. They were never a formal al-Qaeda affiliate, however, unlike the Nusra Front, which until a few months ago was an affiliate, “rebranding” at the behest of the al-Qaeda parent group as a way to gain more allies.
Nusra’s exclusion from the ongoing ceasefire and peace talks set the stage for a big blow-up, with Nusra officials accusing the rebels who were participating in the peace talks of being part of a “conspiracy” against them, and insisting they decided to attack first.
At the same time, Ahrar al-Sham said they were trying to get Nusra Front forces to agree to mediation to stop the fighting, saying Nusra rejected the mediation and that they viewed that rejection as a “declaration of war.”
Nusra is the largest faction in the Idlib Province, but myriad evacuations have put a lot of other rebel groups into the area too, potentially setting the stage for a major battle over the area, one of the few non-ISIS areas in Syria still under rebel control.
It was always inevitable that when the rebels stopped fighting the government, they would turn their guns on each other. What’s really astonishing is that western politicians thought they could get away with pretending this bunch would ever be able to govern a country.
Not really! http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/01/al-qaeda-consolidates-its-front-groups-in-syria.html#comments
Who or what would govern Syria wasn’t taken into consideration. That was to be planned out after regime change to a US friendly dictator.
Nor were the people of Syria taken into consideration and therefore the effort to affect regime change has cost the lives of hundreds of thousands.
Obama threw a monkey wrench into the plan but that didn’t save lives. He did deny the US it’s intended goal of control over Syria but it may have ended up costing more lives and prolonging the fighting even longer.
On the positive side, it may have saved hundreds of thousands of lives in Iran. Obama has indeed made it next to impossible for Trump to move on Iran. Barring starting a nuclear war with Russia/China.
When Obs a signed the deal with Iran it was not because he was a visionary anticipating Trump. In fact the deal is deeply flawed –and it was meant yo be that way.
US had obsession with Iran for a long time, and Hillary as a candidate in 2008’promised to nuke Iran. This was one of the ressons she lost to Obama in primaries. But DNC machine insured that Obama concede to her the foreign policy in a deal before Denver conference. Iran deal was torced on Obama by Europe whose economy was hurting due to Iran sanctions. Countries like Greece and Turkey depended on Iran oil. Exeptions had to be granted. When it became politically untennable, Obama agreed to a half measure. It lifted some sanctions in Europe but mist stayed on in US. The same lobby that did not want s deal, just kept on harping about Iran. Israel, Saudi Arabia and Gulf minions –all just kept on using any pretext to complain about presumed Iranian influence under every Mid East bed. The bottom line, the non-existent nuclear problem was supposed to be purloined into political and economic domination. In the end, US let go of the unsustainable nuclear threat, and having failed in green revolution, essentially punted. But — in the zeal to keep the pot boiling in the Middle East, Iran remained a focus — but US COMPANIES THAT SHOULD HAVE ACCESS TO IRANIAN MARKET — are left locked out.
Trump is left with hands tied. Energy majors have lost practically all
of world exploration business due to war zones in ME., chaos in Venezuela and now threatening Brazil, militancy and near-failed state in Nigeria, another nation building project failurebin South Sudan, sanctions on Russia, chaotic state of relations between Turkey and EU, and the ham fisted EU pressure on Balkan states to block Russian gas pipeline project, etc. But all of this is bad for business, and even the gas reserves in Mediterranean along Levant coast –cannot be tapped due to chaos in Syria, and Israeli Palestinian conflict.
So, what would anyone do in Trump’s shoes? You bave to deal with the flames, and none of them so unmanegable as ISIS. Russia stepped in because of ISIS and Al-qaeda pressure on Syria — not because of Salafi warlords. So, he has to work with any force that will fork out money, military hardware and manpower to do it. I cannot see him jealously guarding US right to solely spend taxpaters money in order to claim the “influence”.in the region.
Then, he needs to deal with Iran from two perspective. One is business, and another — the Iran threat as perceived by our allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
One problem will go with another. The idea that Iran would object to business is ludicrous. But it would need security guarantee, and the end of continuous scapegoating of Shia population in the Middle East to provoke Iran or force it to assist. And this will be at the CORE of negotiations. If Trump positions US to be the broad shoulders taking on Iran challenge — then he can open up issues with Saudi Arabia on funding Salafi cults in ME, South East Asia, Central Asia, Africa, Caucases and Balkans. Much to talk about. Wit Israel, he can fullfil his campaign promise to “..impose a peace proces between Israel and Palestinians in which both must give up something of value in order to achieve lasting peace.”.
There are many ways US can sweeten the pot by being the force behind Mediterranean gas exploration that would give revenue to noth Israel and Palestinians. In case you have not heard, Russia brokered the deal between Gaza Hammas and Palestinian Authority in West Bank. This removes the obstacle to negotiations.
In his confirmation hearing Tillerson kept oprn the question of cooperation eith Iran in fighting against ISIS.