The Nagorno-Karabakh situation, whereby a territory that the UN recognizes as part of Azerbaijan is under the control of an unrecognized autonomous government backed by Armenia, has sat unresolved and rarely spoken of for 22 years. The resumption of hostilities this weekend, however, comes just days after Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, calling for an “ultimate resolution” to the conflict.
Kerry made it clear he wanted a diplomatic settlement, but that still doesn’t mean his comments didn’t play a role in precipitating these new hostilities, if it convinced Aliyev that the US isn’t going to allow the status quo to remain in place.
The Nagorno-Karabakh situation is complex, but the US interest seems primarily in resolving it to spite Russia, seeing Russia as using the standoff as leverage to keep itself tied to both nations, particularly Armenia.
It”s clear the US sees a quick and clean resolution as undercutting Russian interests, but the dispute has a solid century of history underpinning it, and there is no practical “solution” that’s going to satisfy all parties. Hence, an end to the standoff is largely predicated on one side or the other imposing it militarily.
That’s a war that could rapidly spread far beyond Nagorno-Karabakh, however. Armenia has heavy Russian backing, and a significant Russian military presence for defensive purposes. The primary reason isn’t Azerbaijan itself, but Turkey, which is a close ally to Azerbaijan, doesn’t care for Armenia at all, and could quickly get involved if war breaks out.
Turkey”s involvement would all but oblige Russia to back Armenia, turning this into a major regional war. Turkey’s NATO membership could rapidly escalate it even further. The US isn’t necessarily anti-Armenia, but has major business interests in Azerbaijan’s energy sector which would likely oblige them to back Turkey’s play.
The 22-year status quo didn’t really satisfy anyone or open a path for resolution, but may have been better than the alternative, a dangerous and costly war.
Kerry should stick to his. love of guns and hunting. And leave diplomacy to the groan-upz…!!!!!
The US has major business interests in Azerbaijan’s energy sector…
Why else would these greedy USG bastards be instigating violence in
another country halfway around the planet?
If you believe garbage in the corporate media, the USG is in these
countries to (save) the people from so-called Russian (aggression).
Similar to Bush (saving) the Oil, (Oops) I mean, the people of Iraq
from their (evil) dictator.
Given the oil glut which threatens US fracking it seems pretty stupid to get that Azeri oil on the market soon, if ever.
It’s not so much as getting the oil on the market; It’s more
about having control over the natural resources in the ground.
When Ukraine failed, try again.
Obama doesn’t want Ukarine. But Clinton or Trump or Cruz (dog forbid) will and will get it going again. Except Russia has nukes and that brings MAD into the equation.
So it’s pretty safe that any president who is not a corporate psychopath is not going to get too serious about the Ukraine. Time’s expired on that one too unless you nitwit’s vote in Trump as your next pres. Then the ‘psychopathic mind’ comes into play and anything is possible. Trump will show Putin! Regardless of MAD. Compromise isn’t in the psychopath’s vocabulary. Could somebody please tell Justin?
This is just the US Kosovo solution used against a US ally.
I used to think that all these little “diplomatic” incidents were the result of amateurs playing way above their pay grade. I’ forced to now consider that they know exactly what they are doing.
Everywhere the US and its sneaky politics are involved cause trouble, chaos and war. Scum of humanity the political masterminds of all this mess in central asia and the middle east!
Kerry isn’t antiwar but Obama is and so Kerry does what Obama wants him to do. Obama wants a diplomatic solution and it’s out of character for him to want it otherwise. Even though he’s an uppity black president.
Obama has set the US back years! He went and set up a deal with Putin to deligitimize US led war on Syria and his admin went and signed on with other countries to take away the PNAC pland for war on Iran. It could take Clinton or Trump years to get those two on track again and maybe never because Russia and China have interfered and drawn a line in the sand. No more US led wars where they have interests too.
I mean, that’s about as uppity as they get, right? Amid all the screaming about Iran’s imaginary nukes, some are even calling Obama a traitor to his country!!