After another 17 hours of marathon talks in Minsk, Belarus, the Ukrainian civil war is once again heading for ceasefire, with officials on both sides announcing the deal, and the fighting scheduled to formally end Sunday.
Both sides are getting significant concessions, including the long-sought withdrawal of heavy weapons and artillery from the front lines between Ukrainian government territory and rebel-held Donbass.
Ukraine is also to get back Ndiya Savchenko, a pilot who is being held by the Russian government on charges of killing a pair of Russian journalists during the civil war.
The eastern rebels are being assured of future constitutional reforms, as well as economic and humanitarian considerations for civilians trapped in the front-line combat areas.
The reform promises appear similar to the ones from the September, 2014 ceasefire, which held for months, but began to fray when the reforms didn’t happen. The ceasefire finally collapsed last month, with skirmishes around the Donetsk airport giving way to a full military offensive on rebel territory.
The rebels turned the tables pretty quickly and regained some territory lost before September, meaning Donbass now includes some territory not held since last summer.
This 'peace deal' is only happening because the Kiev forces are losing in the field. Once they have regrouped and rearmed, probably with US/NATO weaponry, they will launch a new offensive.
The September ceasefire never held. The Ukrainian military shelled Donetsk virtually every day. The only thing that slowed were major offensives. And that will continue to be the case.
Ever notice how as soon as the Ukraine suffers a military disaster that "peace talks" become a priority? Right now, Ukraine has 5-6,000 troops in a "cauldron" in Debaltsevo under heavy bombardment by the pro-Russian forces and running out of ammo and fuel. This "ceasefire" is just a means of rescuing those doomed troops.
I hope the pro-Russian forces don't fall for this trick again.
Nobody here in Europe expects Putin to keep his word. As Mr Ditz points out, the deal is essentially the same as the last one, which Putin didn't keep. All ceasefires, of course, buy time for the Ukrainians and for the US to get on with arming and training the Ukrainian military. And anything short of the railway line is a defeat for Putin.