NATO Claims Russian Invasion of Ukraine ‘Likely’

Ukraine Says 45,000 Russian Troops Near Border

They’ve been saying it off and on for months now, but NATO once again today claimed that a Russian military invasion of Ukraine was “likely” and that the planned aid convoy meant a “high probability” of an invasion.

Russian officials have repeatedly insisted they are not considering military action, but with over one million civilians displaced by the fighting there, they have urged the UN to do something about the humanitarian crisis.

The number of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border varies wildly depending on what one considers “border areas,” but Ukraine, which often shoots for the high end, claimed Russia had 45,000 troops in the area, including 160 tanks.

The US in particular has maintained that any Russian humanitarian aid to Ukraine would be a back door invasion, apparently echoing the way several recent US military interventions have begun. Russia has promised the convoy coming this week will not have armed escorts.

Author: Jason Ditz

Jason Ditz is Senior Editor for He has 20 years of experience in foreign policy research and his work has appeared in The American Conservative, Responsible Statecraft, Forbes, Toronto Star, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Providence Journal, Washington Times, and the Detroit Free Press.