In a landmark vote today, Crimea’s parliament has formally declared its independence from the Ukraine, extending its de facto autonomy to outright secession, and changing its name to the Republic of Crimea.
Crimean independence isn’t going to last though, as the Sunday referendum takes independence as a starting point but provides only two options, either of which will end that status.
Voters will be asked to choose between reunification with the Russian Federation or restoring the 1992 Constitution and Crimea’s status as a part of the Ukraine. There is no option to reject both possibilities and support remaining independent.
Physically, an independent Crimea is roughly the size of Israel or Kuwait, but its population is much smaller, more in line with a nation like Latvia or Estonia.
This is the first time Crimea has been independent since 1783, when it was annexed into the Russian Empire. It remained part of Russia (and the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic during the Soviet era) until 1954, when Ukrainian-born Nikita Khrushchev transferred it into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. It remained part of Ukraine since, albeit one with a considerable degree of autonomy.
Crimea’s population is majority ethnic-Russian, and it hosts the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Though a Russian Unity party in Crimea’s parliament has pushed for reaccession into Russia, the region’s secessionist push didn’t really get serious momentum until the recent regime change in Kiev, which ousted a pro-Russian government.
According to Wikipedia, on 5 May 1992, the Crimean parliament declared Crimea independent and adopted the first Crimean constitution. On 6 May 1992, they inserted a clause that declared Crimea was a part of Ukraine.
So in this referendum – the other choice (other than joining Russia) – is it to return to the constitution of 5 May 1992, or 6 May 1992?
I'm sure these (Crimean leaders) are not stupid people (the USG seems to have collected most of those) so I'm betting they understand the ramifications of having only those 2 choices. Why don't we wait until we see the actual wording of the referendum and then pontificate.
Almost an aside, by a great deal of fuss is made about the Black Sea Fleet. The Black Sea is an enclosed sea. Acess is possible only by passing through the Dardanelles, Turkish territorial waters. NATO member Turkey could close the straits at any time to Russian warships and even if it didn't, US warships could wait at the southern end and pick off the Russian ships like ducks in a shooting gallery as they emerged from the straits. Thus, the Black Sea fleet is in fact useless in wartime! It was bottled up for the whole of World War I, as was the Baltic Fleet for the same reason (the Great Belt is Danish territorial waters). Thus, the Russian navy is more or less uselsee as a fighting force.
Unfortunately, in preliminary surveys over 80% of population says they would vote for unification with Russia. Most of us, Russians, hope they will become more independent than now of the Central government of Ukraine, but stay with it. There are several aspects of the problem.
1. Language. Ukrainians want only one language to remain the official language of the country – theirs.
2. Economics. Crimea is relatively prosperous region. Tourist industry for at least 8 months of the year, large rent that Russia pays in order to keep Navy in the Black Sea, and wine industry.
Here are some numbers that were signed into agreement previously.
Ukrainian deal of the century
The agreement, which was reached in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, seems to be the deal of the century for Ukraine, whereas it appears to be a great sacrifice for Russia.
Ukraine has been in a dire economic situation since the world financial crisis hit the former Soviet republic in the fourth quarter of 2008. This accord will enable Kiev to save about US$2.8 billion this year alone, and US$4billion annually from 2011 throughout 2020 (or nearly US$40 billion over the period), in exchange for extending the Russian Black Sea fleet’s lease in Sevastopol until 2042 . This means that Russia will give a 30% discount on Ukraine’s gas imports, or approximately US$100 per 1000 cubic meters. The rebate will apply for 30 billion cubic meters sold this year and 40 billion cubic meters annually from 2011 to 2019, according to Gazprom, the Russian national energy company. Ukraine also agreed to increase its gas imports by 10% this year, from 33.75 to 36.5 billion cubic meters.
From the second quarter of 2010, Ukraine will already pay US $236 per 1000 cubic meters instead of US$336. In the view of Mikhail Korchemkin, “the new price will no doubt help Ukraine’s economic recovery”.
I can't even imagine what was promised to the power usurpers by their Western puppet masters.. The US, according to Ms. Nuland, has already "invested" $5 billion of the taxpayers' money into the bottomless pit, the EU is not that robust itself, and the IMF is not giving away money like Halloween candy. http://www.diploweb.com/Russia-s-Black-Sea-fleet-…