The Crimean Peninsula took another step toward secession today, as newly appointed Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov, the head of the Russian Unity Party, claimed full control of army and police forces in the region, and asked Russia for addition military aid.
That may be coming sooner, not later, as Russia’s parliament has already passed a bill authorizing the use of the Russian military in the Ukraine, with a particular eye toward protecting Russian citizens inside the country amid growing unrest.
Aksyonov is already reporting that the Crimean autonomous government has got Russian forces from the navy base protecting key government installations, and there are unconfirmed reports of a deployment of 6,000 Russian troops into the Crimea.
Ukraine’s own interim government, installed itself at the end of a protest last week, insisted they don’t recognize Aksyonov as the Crimean PM because his election this week came amid protests in the Crimean capital of Simferapol.
The Crimea is overwhelmingly ethnic Russian, and there appears to be massive support for secession from the Ukraine. The Crimean parliament has already authorized a referendum on the matter offering several options, including seeking a return to Russia, and Russia’s parliament is debating the possibility of reannexing the Crimea if the referendum shows support for it. The Crimean referendum was initially set for May 25, but Aksyonov pushed it up to March 30.
The pro-Russian backlash at regime change in Ukraine even seems to be expanding outside of the Crimea, with protests in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Mariupol with demonstrators carrying Russian flags. The protests led to clashes with the pro-Western demonstrators who took over the country last week.
They could have at least waited until August (the 100-year anniversary of the commencement of World War I). Cheeky bastards! The effrontery, I tells ya!
On a serious note, all antiwar.com readers are cordially invited to visit my blog where I discuss Ukraine in my 3 latest posts:
http://ayearatvenicebeach.blogspot.com/
Let us see NATO in against a fighting force, not Iraqi or Afghani civilians. My bet they will cut and run with tail between legs.
I tend to disagree. The Russian military remains what US/NATO forces are designed to fight against. Just as it was easier to roll up Saddam's military than the insurgency that followed, overcoming an aging, outmoded, low-tech conventional army and air force should be an easy job for NATO. In fact, I'd go so far to suggest that this understanding is exactly why the US and NATO are doing everything they can to provoke a confrontation. If the Russians/Crimeans are smart, they are preorganizing irregular guerrilla formations to engage with NATO. As the later years in Iraq and the whole Afghan fiasco demonstrate, that's what western militaries still can't handle, almost half a century after Tet.
Sorry rocky, US did not reseat the insurgency in Iraq or Afghanistan. Then you are comparing the Russian armed forces to Saddams? Puhlease.
Well! well! well! Thinga are going to get interesting real soon. I wonder if our dear President and his minions thought this one out properly ?
don’t recognize Aksyonov as the Crimean PM because his election this week came amid protests in the Crimean capital
So be sure to go protest in DC during the next presidential election. Then you don't have to 'recognize' the prez.
We have huge problem with terminology. People who took the government are NOT pro-western demonstrators. People who actually took buildings and fought police belong to3 large and another 5 smaller openly nazi-oriented groups. They took over regions in the west of Ukraine, and became de facto independent. By NOT insisting on teritorial integrity then — UK and UK were in breach of agreement with Russia that constitted Ukraine as independent country. After failed attempt at controling the right-wing groups, Western diplomats are now in damage controle mode, and focusing on Russia. The real problem is, West lost control. The spokespeople for the rebellion do not care for EU or NATO, and are now rampaging, looting and killing in Kyiv and the entire Galicia. The leader of Jewish community in Kyev, recommended Jews leave the city. Over 140,000 refugees are already in Russia.
By the way, we need to stop using terminology that is obsolete. The groups that seized the power are extreme right-wing, and they are AGAINST EU. The two spokespeople, new acting prime minister and acting president, are pretty faces good for western TV, but they are not listened by the street in Kyev, nor in any of the regions of western Ukraine. From that entire western region Jews and Russians have left already. The Government is not really governing anyone. There is a question of the military. Even though they have already purged all undesirabled from command positions, the rank and file is not going to hold if sent against heavily mixed population, or majority Russian. In fact, many Ukrainians are speaking Russian in those areas, and they are just as much in danger as Russians or Jews. The right wing now ruling streets attacked many minorities, including Tatars in Kyev.
That may well be, but the Tatars nonetheless showed themselves more than willing to be Pravy Sektor's bootboys doing the street-mob ultraviolence against Russians in the Crimea.
The Russians may have no choice but to take the entire country. At least one Ukrainian politician has threatened to seek nuclear weapons for West Ukraine to defend themselves against Russia – they may have the technology to do so.
Ukraine is a country that directly borders Russia. If it is allowed to join NATO, it could develop these weapons without consequence. That would severely damage Russian national security. I doubt they would allow something like that to occur without action.
For the last 10 years, neocons have squawked about Iran, a country on the other side of the earth, developing nuclear weapons despite evidence that they couldn't deliver them even if they had them – which they don't. Imagine if Iran bordered the US and actually threatened to get them, however. Imagine that the previous democratically-elected government of that country was overthrown and the new government threatened to join a military alliance against the US while making such a threat. What would the US do?
A doomsday scenario here is that Ukraine does (or tries) that and Russia retaliates by putting nuclear weapons in the Western Hemisphere. The best outcome (even though I abhor war) would be something that prevents this from happening – the best of many bad possibilities you could say.
If I were the Russians, I would annex the eastern parts of the country. This would land lock Western Ukraine, which would give them significant leverage over Ukrainian actions in the future. I'd also invade the West and occupy it in a limited fashion (seize strategic areas while ignoring large civilian populations). I'd make it clear that those troops would remain as long as Ukraine possessed nuclear technology – that they would only leave when that industry had been disbanded and Ukraine had signed a treaty declaring that it would not join NATO. In the meantime, they would be free to have elections, etc.
I've been right on almost all of my other predictions (that they would engineer an uprising in the east preceding invasion and that they would expand their bases overseas in order to "fight the them over there rather than here"), so I think this is a possibility.
On a side note, it is interesting to see the American media's response to a new Cold War threat. The WSJ has an article blaming the Russians for "threatening" the West. However, it was the "WEST" (namely the US and EU) which first threatened them. They started this an now their attitude is "What? Who, Me?"
Operation gladio in full effect..